刺槐叶瘿蚊在中国的危险性评估

采用CLIMEX模型预测分析了刺槐叶瘿蚊Obolodiplosis robiniae(Haldemann)在中国的潜在地理分布,并参照我国有害生物危险性定量分析方法,对刺槐叶瘿蚊在中国的危险性作出综合评价.结果表明:刺槐叶瘿蚊在中国潜在的分布区范围是98 30°～132.03°E,24.23°～47.41°N.最宜适生区(EI ≥ 15)包括华北、华中、华南及云南大部分地区;适生区(5 ≤ EI＜15):包括辽宁和河北中南部,山西及陕西南部,四川、甘肃东南部分地区;半适生区(0 ＜ EI ＜ 5):包括黑龙江、吉林、四川大部分地区及西藏、甘肃、宁夏部分地区;其余各地的EI值均小于等于0,属于非适生区.预测其在中国的风险值为2.26,根据国际上风险值分级标准,属于高度危险生物.据此提出了针对性的风险管理措施.

Potential risk assessment of Obolodiplosis robiniae (Haldemann) in China

The CLIMEX model and pest risk quantitative analysis were used to predict the potential distribution and damage of the gall midge Obolodiplosis robiniae (Haldemann) in China. The results showed that the potential distribution is from 98.30-132.03 E and 24.23-47.41 N. The optimum establishment areas include North China, Middle China, South China and most areas of Yunnan. The suitable establishment areas include middle-south of Liaoning and Hebei, south of Shanxi and Shaanxi, southeast of Sichuan and Gansu. The semi-suitable establishment areas include most areas of Heilong-jiang, Jilin and Sichuan, a part area of Gansu and Ningxia. The other parts of China belong to non-suitable establishment areas of this pest. O. robiniae has a risk value of 2.26 in china and is ranked as a highly destructive alien species. The risk management strategy of this pest in this country was discussed.