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1.
The significant dependence of agricultural productivity on pest control requires pest distribution predictions at an early stage of pest invasion. Because pest cycles are critically affected by climate, climate is one of the most important factors for predicting an invasive pest. CLIMEX is a highly effective tool that can predict potential geographical species distributions, and test the regional suitability for a target species' habitat based on data including climate change scenarios. CLIMEX has been recently used in Europe, North America, China and Australia, among others. However, for modeling species distributions in Korea, the use of the model has been limited to date. This study aimed to first introduce the function and application of CLIMEX by reviewing important studies using this model. Second, we investigated previous studies using the model simulation to demonstrate the practical applicability of CLIMEX for the agricultural sector, and its use in forecasting.  相似文献   
2.
黄顶菊在中国的潜在适生区   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
菊科黄菊属植物黄顶菊近年出现在我国华北地区天津市和河北省的衡水、廊坊等地,其入侵范围有不断扩大的趋势.黄顶菊是一种入侵性极高的一年生杂草,对农牧业生态系统有极大的破坏性.为指导黄顶菊的防除和制定相关的控制政策,本研究根据黄顶菊在其原产地南美洲及扩散入侵地的分布资料,采用CLIMEX生态位模型对其在中国的潜在适生分布区域进行预测.结果表明,黄顶菊在中国的潜在适生区域集中分布于东南部的广东、广西、云南、海南、福建、台湾、江西、湖南、贵州、四川、重庆、湖北、安徽、江苏、上海15个省(市、自治区),其中高风险区域包括广东、广西、台湾、海南、福建、云南、四川、贵州、重庆和西藏局部地区.  相似文献   
3.
Aim  To test how well species distributions and abundance can be predicted following invasion and climate change when using only species distribution and abundance data to estimate parameters.
Location  Models were developed for the species' native range in the Americas and applied to Australia.
Methods  We developed a predictive model for an invasive neotropical shrub ( Parkinsonia aculeata) using a popular ecophysiological bioclimatic modelling technique (CLIMEX) fitted against distribution and abundance data in the Americas. The effect of uncertainty in model parameter estimates on predictions in Australia was tested. Alternative data sources were used when model predictions were sensitive to uncertainty in parameter estimates. The resulting best-fit model was run under two climate change scenarios.
Results  Of the 19 parameters used, 9 could not be fitted using data from the native range. However, only parameters that lowered temperature or increased moisture requirements for growth noticeably altered the model prediction in Australia. Differences in predictions were dramatic, and reflect climates in Australia that were not represented in the Americas (novel climates). However, these poorly fitted parameters could be fitted post hoc using alternative data sources prior to predicting responses to climate change.
Conclusions  Novel climates prevented the development of a predictive model which relied only on native-range distribution and abundance data because certain parameters could not be fitted. In fact, predictions were more sensitive to parameter uncertainty than to climate change scenarios. Where uncertainty in parameter estimates affected predictions, it could be addressed through the inclusion of alternative data sources. However, this may not always be possible, for example in the absence of post-invasion data.  相似文献   
4.
Puccinia jaceae var. solstitialis is an autoecious rust fungus that is native to areas of Afro-Eurasia with a Mediterranean climate. An isolate collected near Sivas, Turkey was released for classical biological control of yellow starthistle (YST), which is an invasive alien weed in California, USA. The fungus has been released throughout California, but long-term establishment rates are generally low, apparently because this ecotype is not well adapted to the climate where the weed is most invasive. Using a site with excellent establishment as a target, the Match Climates function in CLIMEX climate modeling software identified similar sites in and around the San Francisco Bay Area, east to the Central Valley and Sierra foothills, and along the coast of Southern California. Similar sites in other states include Walla Walla, Washington, Pendelton, Oregon and Salt Lake City, Utah. A Compare Locations model based primarily on experimentally measured temperature and humidity requirements of the rust produced similar results. Using Sacramento, California, which is in the center of YST distribution, as a target, the Match Climates function predicted that the best locations to search for rust accessions to use in California are near Tunis, Tunisia, Foggia, Italy, Khalkis, Greece, Kayseri, Turkey, and possibly Constantine, Algeria. This generally agrees with the prediction of a Compare Locations model based on the geographic distribution of YST in California. Climatic factors that limit the long-term establishment of the fungus are likely to be summer heat and/or dry stress and short dew periods.  相似文献   
5.
In summer 2007, the Asian parasitoid Binodoxys communis (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was released in North America for control of the exotic soybean aphid, Aphis glycines (Hemiptera: Aphididae). Despite its comparatively narrow host range, releases of B. communis may still constitute a risk to native aphid species. To estimate the risk of exposure of non-target aphids to B. communis, we merged assessments of temporal co-occurrence with projections of spatial overlap between B. communis and three native aphid species, and in-field measurements of the incidence of ecological filters that may protect these aphids from parasitism. Temporal co-occurrence was assessed between A. glycines and native aphids (Aphis asclepiadis, Aphis oestlundi, and Aphis monardae) at four different locations in Minnesota, USA. The degree of temporal overlap depended greatly on location and aphid species, ranging between 0 and 100%. All of the native aphids were tended by multiple species of ants, with overall ant-attendance ranging from 26.1 to 89.6%. During temporal overlap with A. glycines, 53 ± 11% of A. monardae colonies were partly found in flower heads of their host plant, with flowers acting as a physical refuge for this aphid. The extent of geographic overlap between B. communis and native aphids based upon Climex modeling was 17–28% for A. monardae, 13–22% for A. oestlundi, 46–55% for A. asclepiadis and 12–24% for the A. asclepiadis species complex. The estimated overall probability of potential exposure of B. communis on native aphids was relatively low (P = 0.115) for A. oestlundi and high (P = 0.550) for A. asclepiades. Physical and ant-mediated refuges considerably lowered probability of population-level impact on A. monardae, and could lead to substantial reduction of exposure for the other native aphids. These findings are used to make broader statements regarding the ecological safety of current B. communis releases and their potential impact on native aphid species in North America.  相似文献   
6.
  • 1 The pea leafminer Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) (Diptera: Agromyzidae) is an invasive species in North America and a serious economic pest on a wide variety of crops. We developed a bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) for this species and examined the envelope's potential location in North America under various future climates.
  • 2 We compared the future bioclimatic envelopes for L. huidobrensis using either simple scenarios comprising uniform changes in temperature/precipitation or climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Our simple scenarios were: (i) an increase of 0.1°C per degree in latitude with a 20% increase in summer precipitation and a 20% decrease in winter precipitation and (ii) an overall increase of 3°C everywhere, also with the same changes in precipitation. For GCM‐modelled climate change, we used the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3), each in combination with two scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A2 and B2).
  • 3 The BEM results using the simple scenarios were more similar to each other than to the results obtained using GCM projections. The results were also qualitatively different (i.e. spatially different and divergent) depending on which GCM‐scenario combination was used.
  • 4 This modelling exercise illustrates that: (i) results using first approximation simple climate change scenarios can give predictions very different from those that use GCM‐modelled climate projections (comprising a result that has worrying implications for empirical impact research) and that (ii) different GCM‐models using the same scenario can give very different results (implying strong model dependency in projected biological impacts).
  相似文献   
7.
Abstract Prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica ssp. indica , a major weed of the Mitchell Grass Downs of northern Queensland, has been the target of biological control projects since the 1980s. The striped leaf-feeding beetle, Homichloda barkeri (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Alticinae), was the third insect approved for release for the control of this weed in Australia. However, mass rearing this insect under glasshouse conditions proved to be difficult and time consuming as there were problems associated with low egg-hatching rates and poor larval survival. Eggs in diapause were stimulated to hatch by repeated wetting and drying. Larvae were fed on potted prickly acacia plants in cages. Late-instar larvae were collected and transferred to a mix of sand, peat moss and vermiculite for pupation and adult emergence. Over 10 500 adults were released at 28 sites in north Queensland between November 1996 and December 1999. Initial releases of insects confined to gauze cages resulted in limited adult survival, oviposition and development of first-generation larvae. First-generation larvae were observed at two sites where cages were not used. However, later inspections of release sites, including those made in April and December 2000, April 2001 and late March 2002, failed to find any trace of the insect, which is assumed to have failed to establish. Possible reasons for this failure are discussed.  相似文献   
8.
The longhorn crazy ant (Paratrechina longicornis) is a globally distributed ant species with a high invasion risk, suggesting the need to use species distribution modeling to evaluate its potential distribution. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the potential distribution of longhorn crazy ants in response to climate change by using CLIMEX and Maxent and identifying the climatic factors that influence their habitat. Then, the model outcomes were used to construct an ensemble map to evaluate invasion risk in South Korea. The results indicated that temperature-related variables mainly affect the distribution of the longhorn crazy ant, and the two models showed consensus regions in South America, Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Due to climate change, it was expected that the northern limit would somewhat rise. In South Korea, high-risk areas were predicted to be located along the coasts, but they would expand as a consequence of climate change. Since the invasion of longhorn crazy ants has occurred via commercial trades, a relatively high risk in coastal areas demands a high level of attention. We expect that this study will provide initial insight into selecting areas for longhorn crazy ant quarantine with ensemble species distribution modeling.  相似文献   
9.
Anoplophora chinensis (Forster) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an A1 class quarantine pest, native to China, Japan, and North Korea. The A. chinensis outbreak in China has severely affected the local environment and economic development. This study investigates potential areas in China with suitable climate for Achinensis using historical climate data (1971–2000) and future climate‐warming estimates generated by CLIMEX1.1. These future estimates are based on simulated climate data (2010–2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). The results suggest that a wide area of China will have a climate suitable for Achinensis, and every province may contain some suitable areas for this pest. The predicted areas are distributed primarily in central and southern China, with an estimated distribution range of 18.2–49.5°N and 81.3–135.0°E. Using a global‐warming scenario and predictions based on historical climate data, the areas in China with a climate generally suitable for A. chinensis are predicted to decline, whereas the areas that are highly suitable for A. chinensis are predicted to expand particularly to the northeast and northwest. The estimated distribution range covered 18.2–49.1°N and 73.6–135.0°E. Anoplophora chinensis hosts grow in much of China; therefore, the pest could possibly establish this entire predicted area. These results support enhanced quarantine and control measures combined with stronger monitoring systems to prevent the spread and export of A. chinensis.  相似文献   
10.
Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), known as common cutworm, is a worldwide pest that causes severe damage to various crops and vegetables in South Korea. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of S. litura in South Korea in a climate change scenario by applying species distribution modeling. We used the CLIMEX software as a main tool and determined optimal parameter values to simulate the current distribution of S. litura in Asia. We then used these parameter values to predict the species' future distribution in South Korea. As a result, we prepared maps indicating areas with suitable climate for S. litura and showed that these areas gradually increased as a result of climate change. Approximately 98% of the areas in South Korea were predicted to have a favorable climate for S. litura in 2100; 63.2% of the area in South Korea is currently favorable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to predict the potential distribution of S. litura in South Korea, and it provides the basic data necessary to establish an optimal control strategy of this species.  相似文献   
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