碳税和硫税治理下中国未来的碳排放趋势

基于气候治理背景,计算模拟了征收碳税和硫税后的经济影响和减排效果。结果发现,基准情景下,中国经济将保持不断增长的趋势,到2100年,GDP总量将达到69.95万亿美元,碳排放呈现环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,高峰值出现在2034年,碳排放高峰为3832Mt C。在收税治理策略下,无论单独征收硫税还是单独征收碳税,我国的GDP均会受到影响,碳排放都会减少。同时征收碳税和硫税,碳排放显著降低,碳排放高峰出现在2031年,峰值估计为3111Mt C,较基准情景下碳排放高峰降低了721Mt C,高峰值出现的年份也提前了3a,完全满足2030年左右实现碳高峰的承诺。

Future carbon emissions trends under carbon and sulfur taxation governance in China

The effect of carbon and sulfur taxation on the economy and emission reduction has been simulated based on the climate governance in the present study. The results showed that under the baseline scenario, China''s economy will keep growing, and the GDP will reach $69.95 trillion in 2100. Carbon emissions present Environmental Kuznets Curve characteristics, and a peak will appear in 2034 at a value of 3832 MtC. Under the taxation governance strategy, regardless of sulfur or carbon taxation, China''s GDP will be affected; however, carbon emissions will be simultaneously reduced. Levying carbon and sulfur taxes simultaneously will reduce carbon emissions significantly. The peak carbon emissions value of 3111 MtC, decreased to 721 MtC from the carbon emissions peak value in the baseline scenario. Based on the current trend, the carbon emissions peak will appear in 2031. The carbon emissions are three years in advance of the baseline scenario, and, if they continue on the following trend, will fulfill the promise of carbon peak around 2030.