闽三角城市群生态系统服务权衡的时空动态与情景模拟

闽三角城市群由厦门、泉州和漳州3个城市组成,是我国沿海开放地区之一。21世纪以来,快速的城镇化过程严重影响了该区域的生态安全以及生态系统服务功能,制约了当地的经济社会可持续发展。因此,研究闽三角城市群的生态系统服务权衡协同关系,对该区域的生态安全协同联动管理以及社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义。估算了闽三角城市群的保水服务、保土服务、NPP和食物供给4种生态系统服务功能,使用空间分析和空间统计等方法分析其时空动态变化和相互之间的权衡协同关系,并在不同情景下模拟了2030年的生态系统服务空间分布和权衡关系。结果表明:2005—2015年来,闽三角城市群的保水服务、保土服务、NPP和食物供给四种生态系统服务功能均呈下降趋势;在2005—2015年间,闽三角城市群的保水、NPP与保土3种服务之间呈现协同关系,食物供给服务与其他三种服务均呈权衡关系,虽四种服务的权衡协同关系未变,但权衡协同程度发生了复杂的变化;在空间分布特征上,晋江流域的生态系统服务权衡协同程度均高于九龙江流域,闽三角3个城市的生态系统服务权衡协同关系统一呈现厦门市泉州市漳州市;在不同情境设置中,自然情景下4种生态系统服务出现大幅降低,协同关系主要呈降低趋势,而权衡关系加剧,与规划情景相比,保护情景下的协同关系更高,权衡关系更低。

Spatio-temporal dynamics and scenarios simulation of trade-offs between ecosystem services in Min Delta urban agglomeration

The Min Delta urban agglomeration includes three cities (Xiamen, Quanzhou, and Zhangzhou) and is an open coastal area in China. Since the 21st century, rapid urbanization has seriously affected the ecological security and ecosystem services function of the region and has restricted the sustainable development of the local economy and society. For this reason, understanding the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services in the Min Delta urban agglomeration is of considerable significance to the coordinated linkage management of ecological security and the sustainable development of social economy in this region. This paper estimated four kinds of ecosystem services (water conservancy, soil conservation, NPP(Net primary productivity), and food supply) in the Min Delta urban agglomeration, and the spatial-temporal dynamics and trade-offs-synergies among the ecosystem services were analysed using correlation and spatial analyses. Moreover, the spatial distribution and trade-offs of ecosystem services in 2030 were simulated under different scenarios.The results showed that:From 2005 to 2015, trend for all four types of ecosystem services were decreased, and there was a synergies relationship between water conservancy, NPP and soil conservation services. However, there was a trade-offs between food supply service and the other three services. From 2005 to 2015, the trade-offs and synergies between the four services remained unchanged, the degree of complex changes have taken place. In terms of spatial distribution characteristics, the degree of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies in Jinjiang river basin is higher than that in Jiulong river basin. The trade-offs and synergies relationship of ecosystem service in three cities of Min Delta urban agglomeration presents uniformly in Xiamen > Quanzhou > Zhangzhou. In different scenario Settings, there was a significant decrease in the four ecosystem services under the natural scenario, and the synergistic relationship was mainly in a downward trend, while the trade-offs relationship was intensified. Compared with the planning scenario, the synergistic relationship under the protection scenario was higher and the trade-offs relationship was lower.