黑龙江省赤狐年数量趋势波动的初步分析

本文根据毛皮收购数据对赤狐在黑龙江省13年(1971～1983)的年数量趋势波动做了分析。以全省数据分析时,此期间赤狐数量趋势共有4个波动周期,平均间隔为3年,变异系数为23.57％;继而以该省八个地区联合周期分析共得26个周期,平均间隔为3.42年,变异系数为39.78％。两次分析皆表明:赤狐数量趋势的波动为随机波动,波动中赤狐种群的密度制约因素影响不明显。

A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON FLUCTUATIONS IN YEARLY NUMERICAL TENDENCY OF THE RED FOX IN HEILONGJIANG, CHINA

Fluctuations in yearly numerical tendency of the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) in Heilongjiang province, China were analysed based on the fur purchase numbers during 13 years (1971-1983). Taking the interval between two peak years as a cycle, thenthere were 4 cycles in Total Area (whole province) Analysis, the interval on average was 3-year, the coelficient of variation was 23.57%. The datas were also analysed by dividing the Total Area into eight Subdivisional Areas and then combining their cycles for further analysis. In Subdivisions Combination Analysis, totally 26 cycles were obtained, with a peak year appearing for every 3.42 years, the coefficient of variation was 39.78% Results of statistical testing ooth in Total Area and Subdivisions Combination analyses revealed that fluctuations in yearly numerical tendency of the Red Fox coincided with random fluctuations. Among causes which effected fluctuations the density of Red fox was not main factor.