佛坪大熊猫种群生存力分析的初步报告

应用种群生存力分析的一些原理和方法，借助旋涡模型，对佛坪大熊猫在未来１００年的种动态进行了预测，并对其长期存活状况以及它在环境波动、迁移扩散状太民的变化、杠息地变化和不同灾变条件下的种群动态进行了模拟。结果显示：佛坪大熊猫的种群数量在１００年内大体稳定，略有下降的趋势。

A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR GIANT PANDA IN FOPING

The authers extracted the data of giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) population and the related factors that influence the population from Foping Reserve and published literature, then predicted the population dynamics in 100 years, analysized the probable long-term survival state, and examined the sensibility of the population size under the change of environment, migration rate, carrying capacity and catastrophes with the help of VORTEX model. The results indicated that the population of giant panda is mainly stable, with a small trend of decreasing. The long-term survival is decided by the degree of inbreeding depression. The population size is sensitive to the fluctuating environment, catastrophes and the change of carrying capacity.