Climatic analysis to determine where to collect and release Puccinia jaceae var. solstitialis for biological control of yellow starthistle

Puccinia jaceae var. solstitialis is an autoecious rust fungus that is native to areas of Afro-Eurasia with a Mediterranean climate. An isolate collected near Sivas, Turkey was released for classical biological control of yellow starthistle (YST), which is an invasive alien weed in California, USA. The fungus has been released throughout California, but long-term establishment rates are generally low, apparently because this ecotype is not well adapted to the climate where the weed is most invasive. Using a site with excellent establishment as a target, the Match Climates function in CLIMEX climate modeling software identified similar sites in and around the San Francisco Bay Area, east to the Central Valley and Sierra foothills, and along the coast of Southern California. Similar sites in other states include Walla Walla, Washington, Pendelton, Oregon and Salt Lake City, Utah. A Compare Locations model based primarily on experimentally measured temperature and humidity requirements of the rust produced similar results. Using Sacramento, California, which is in the center of YST distribution, as a target, the Match Climates function predicted that the best locations to search for rust accessions to use in California are near Tunis, Tunisia, Foggia, Italy, Khalkis, Greece, Kayseri, Turkey, and possibly Constantine, Algeria. This generally agrees with the prediction of a Compare Locations model based on the geographic distribution of YST in California. Climatic factors that limit the long-term establishment of the fungus are likely to be summer heat and/or dry stress and short dew periods.