Prediction of global geographic distribution of Metcalfa pruinosa using CLIMEX |
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Authors: | Dae‐hyeon Byeon Jae‐Min Jung Sunghoon Jung Wang‐Hee Lee |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Biosystems Machinery Engineering, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, Korea;2. Department of Applied Biology, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, Korea |
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Abstract: | Globalization has changed the habitats of various species, resulting in harmful pest invasion. Among these pests, Metcalfa pruinosa has caused worldwide economic and hygienic damage in both urban and agricultural/forested areas. It has been reported that prediction of pest distribution is key to the management of pest prevention. Hence, this study aimed to predict the potential geographic distribution of M. pruinosa under the current climate and under a climate change scenario. CLIMEX, modeling software that analyzes the habitat suitability of a target species based on comprehensive climatic and physiological data, was used mainly to establish a map of predictive distribution of M. pruinosa at present and in the future. Based on our simulations, we predict that M. pruinosa will tend to extend its distribution northward in North America and Europe. We conclude that climate change could result in M. pruinosa invasion in a northward direction, suggesting the need for a thorough system of control and prevention. |
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Keywords: | Climate change scenario CLIMEX Metcalfa pruinosa Potential distribution |
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