| Abstract: | Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), known as common cutworm, is a worldwide pest that causes severe damage to various crops and vegetables in South Korea. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of S. litura in South Korea in a climate change scenario by applying species distribution modeling. We used the CLIMEX software as a main tool and determined optimal parameter values to simulate the current distribution of S. litura in Asia. We then used these parameter values to predict the species' future distribution in South Korea. As a result, we prepared maps indicating areas with suitable climate for S. litura and showed that these areas gradually increased as a result of climate change. Approximately 98% of the areas in South Korea were predicted to have a favorable climate for S. litura in 2100; 63.2% of the area in South Korea is currently favorable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to predict the potential distribution of S. litura in South Korea, and it provides the basic data necessary to establish an optimal control strategy of this species. |
