Mottled ducks,feral mallards,and their hybrids in Florida

The nonmigratory and endemic Florida mottled duck (Anas fulvigula fulvigula) is facing conservation threats from the combined effects of urbanization and introgressive hybridization with feral mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and mallard x mottled duck hybrids. In the past, the status of the Florida mottled duck population was assessed during annual aerial surveys and most brown ducks (mottled ducks, mallards, and hybrids of them) detected during the survey would have been mottled ducks. But the release of domesticated mallards for aesthetic purposes has led to increases in the prevalence of mallards-hybrids (mallards or mallard x mottled duck hybrids) throughout peninsular Florida, USA, and because it is impossible to differentiate among mottled ducks, female mallards, and hybrids during aerial surveys, helicopter surveys were halted in 2009 until state researchers could conduct a range-wide study to determine what proportion of brown ducks are mottled ducks versus mallards-hybrids. We used plumage keys and high-resolution photography to categorize brown ducks from 557 wetland grid points as either mottled ducks or mallards-hybrids. Of the 5,179 brown ducks categorized, 40.1% were mottled ducks and 59.9% were mallards-hybrids. We used logistic regression analysis to model the interactive effect of a site's latitude and level of urbanization (urban gradient value within a 2-km buffer) to generate a predictive raster surface (1-km resolution) of the study area with values corresponding to the probability that a brown duck observed within a cell is a pure mottled duck. Predicted values will be used as correction factors when estimating final mottled duck population abundance from brown-duck survey data. Additionally, the predictive raster surface will be used to identify wetlands where mottled ducks remain predominant so that these sites can be targeted for preservation. Overall, mallards-hybrids outnumbered mottled ducks throughout most of peninsular Florida, especially in more urbanized regions, and their current prevalence rate presents a serious conservation threat, via hybridization, to extant mottled duck populations.