中国旱灾风险定量评估

全球变暖及经济社会快速发展导致区域及全球性灾害风险增大,中国更是几乎每年都会遭受旱灾,因此,开展旱灾风险评估及影响因素研究对于区域经济社会可持续发展和灾害风险管理具有重要意义。以前的旱灾风险评估在评估方法以及评估指标选取方面都具有很强的主观性,导致风险评估结果具有强烈的不确定性,这在划定我国的高旱灾风险区域时可能会造成问题。基于旱灾风险的定义,合理假设"历史上旱灾损失高的地区遭受高旱灾损失的概率越大",引入历史旱灾损失资料对旱灾风险进行校正,构建了新的旱灾风险评估模型,揭示了中国旱灾风险的区域分异规律,并量化了各个影响因子的贡献水平。分析结果表明,我国存在5个显著的旱灾高风险区：东北地区、华北地区、西北地区东部、西南地区东部以及西北地区西部的小部分区域。影响因子分析进一步表明,高暴露度和高脆弱性是导致地区出现高旱灾风险的主要原因。

Quantitative assessment of drought risk in China

Global warming and rapid economic and social development have led to the increased regional and global disaster risk, especially China, which suffers from drought almost every year. Therefore, carrying out disaster risk assessment and studying on influencing factors is important for the sustainable development of regional economic society and disaster risk management. The previous drought risk assessment was highly subjective in terms of assessment methods and assessment index selection, resulting in a strong uncertainty in the risk assessment results, which may cause problems as delineating high drought risk areas in China. Based on the definition of drought risk, this paper reasonably makes the assumption that "the areas with high drought losses in history are more likely to suffer high drought losses in the future", then, we introduce historical drought loss data to correct the drought risk. In this way, a new drought risk assessment model is constructed and the regional differentiation law of drought risk in China has been revealed. Besides, we have quantified the contribution of each influencing factor. The results show that there are 5 significant high drought risk areas in China, including Northeast China, North China, east of Northwest China, east of Southwest China, and a small part in west of Northwest China. The analysis of influencing factors further indicates that high exposure and high vulnerability are the main reasons for the high drought risk in the region.