A Model of Spatial Epidemic Spread When Individuals Move Within Overlapping Home Ranges |
| |
Authors: | Timothy C Reluga Jan Medlock Alison P Galvani |
| |
Institution: | (1) Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, 06520, US |
| |
Abstract: | One of the central goals of mathematical epidemiology is to predict disease transmission patterns in populations. Two models are commonly used to predict spatial spread of a disease. The first is the distributed-contacts model, often described by a contact distribution among stationary individuals. The second is the distributed-infectives model, often described by the diffusion of infected individuals. However, neither approach is ideal when individuals move within home ranges. This paper presents a unified modeling hypothesis, called the restricted-movement model. We use this model to predict spatial spread in settings where infected individuals move within overlapping home ranges. Using mathematical and computational approaches, we show that our restricted-movement model has three limits: the distributed-contacts model, the distributed-infectives model, and a third, less studied advective distributed-infectives limit. We also calculate approximate upper bounds for the rates of an epidemic's spatial spread. Guidelines are suggested for determining which limit is most appropriate for a specific disease. |
| |
Keywords: | Epidemics Invasions Distributed-contacts Distributed-infectives |
本文献已被 PubMed SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|