基于MAXENT模型和Arc GIS预测蜡梅适生域在中国的潜在分布

蜡梅(Chimonanthus praecox)是我国二级濒危珍稀植物,是重要的冬季传统观花植物。利用已报道的246个分布点和worldclim中提取的19个气候因子,基于最大熵(Maxent)模型和地理信息系统(Arc Gis)对蜡梅在中国的潜在适生区分布进行预测分析,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线对预测结果进行检验和评价。结果表明蜡梅的潜在适生范围相对集中,主要集中在西南的四川盆地、华中、华东及华北的中南部地区,其他地区则适应性较低。温度是影响蜡梅分布的决定性因子,其中,当最冷季度平均温度接近0℃,等温性范围为0—10℃,降雨量变异系数约为45时,蜡梅的分布概率最大。与原分布区相比较,蜡梅的适生区范围正向中国东部地区和北部地区迁移。ROC曲线检验评价结果表明,Maxent模型的ROC曲线分析法的面积(AUC)值为0.986,预测结果达到了极高精度。

Prediction of the potential distribution of Chimonanthus praecox in China based on MAXENT model and Arc GIS

Chimonanthus praecox is a second-class endangered plant in China and an important traditional ornamental flower in winter.Based on the reported 246 distribution points and the 19 climatic factors extracted from worldclim,the distribution of potential suitable areas of Chimonanthus praecox in China was predicted and analyzed based on the maximum entropy(Maxent)model and geographic information system(Arc Gis),and the predicted results were tested and evaluated by ROC curve.The results showed that the potential suitable range of Chimonanthus chinensis was relatively concentrated,mainly concentrated in Sichuan Basin in Southwest China,Central China,East China and the central and southern parts of North China,and the adaptability was relatively low in other areas.Temperature was the decisive factor affecting the distribution of Chimonanthus praecox.Among them,when the coldest quarter average temperature was close to 0℃,the isothermal range was 0-10℃,and the variation coefficient of rainfall was about 45,the distribution probability of Chimonanthus praecox was the largest.Compared with the original distribution area,the suitable area of the Chimonanthus praecox was moving towards the eastern and northern regions of China.The ROC curve test and evaluation results showed that the area(AUC)value of the ROC curve analysis method of Maxent model was 0.986,and the prediction result reached extremely high precision.