Understanding seagrass resilience in temperate systems: the importance of timing of the disturbance

Temperate seagrass meadows form valuable ecosystems in coastal environments and present a distinct seasonal growth. They are threatened by an increasing amount of stressors, potentially affecting their capacity to recover from disturbances. We hypothesized that their resilience to disturbances is affected by seasonal dynamics. Hence, we investigated the effect of the timing of the disturbance on seagrass Leaf Area Index (as a proxy for presence, or ‘visible’ status), recovery from disturbance (as a proxy for meadow resilience), and rhizome carbohydrates (as a proxy for longer term resilience) by a series of four disturbance-recovery field experiments spread over the growing season at two sites in Shandong Province, China. During the course of the growing season, we found the highest recovery at the start of the growing season, lowest recovery when Leaf Area Index peaked around mid-growing season, and intermediate recovery when Leaf Area Index decreased at the end of the growing season. Rhizome carbohydrates were not affected by disturbances during any of the four experimental periods and could not explain the low recovery during mid-growing season. The two sites differed in exposure and in the occurrence of incidents like a green tide and storms, which affected recovery. However, general patterns were similar; timing strongly influenced the indicator of meadow resilience and its correlation with presence during the two main seagrass growth phases. Our results emphasize the importance of carefully considering timing in the evaluation of seagrass resilience in temperate systems. Furthermore, our study implies that, to effectively protect seagrass beds, conservation management should aim at avoiding disturbances particularly during the peak of the growing season, when resilience is lowest.     

Relative importance of landscape and species characteristics on extinction debt,immigration credit and relaxation time after habitat turnover

Habitat turnover concomitantly causes destruction and creation of habitat patches. Following such a perturbation, metapopulations harbor either an extinction debt or an immigration credit, that is the future decrease or increase in population numbers due to this disturbance. Extinction debt and immigration credit are rarely considered simultaneously and disentangled from the relaxation time (time to new equilibrium). In this contribution, we test the relative importance of two potential drivers of time-delayed metapopulation dynamics: the spatial configuration of the habitat turnover and species dispersal ability. We provide a simulation-based investigation projecting metapopulation dynamics following habitat turnover in virtual landscapes. We consider two virtual species (a short-distance and a long-distance disperser) and five scenarios of habitat turnover depending on net habitat loss or gain and habitat aggregation. Our analyses reveal that (a) the main determinant of the magnitude of the extinction debt or immigration credit is the net change in total habitat area, followed by species dispersal distance and finally by the post-turnover habitat aggregation; (b) relaxation time weakly depends on the magnitude of the immigration credit or of the extinction debt; (c) the main determinant of relaxation time is dispersal distance followed by the net change in total habitat area and finally by the post-turnover habitat aggregation. These results shed light on the relative importance of dispersal ability and habitat turnover spatial structure on the components of time-delayed metapopulation dynamics.     

Large carbon release legacy from bark beetle outbreaks across Western United States

Warmer conditions over the past two decades have contributed to rapid expansion of bark beetle outbreaks killing millions of trees over a large fraction of western United States (US) forests. These outbreaks reduce plant productivity by killing trees and transfer carbon from live to dead pools where carbon is slowly emitted to the atmosphere via heterotrophic respiration which subsequently feeds back to climate change. Recent studies have begun to examine the local impacts of bark beetle outbreaks in individual stands, but the full regional carbon consequences remain undocumented for the western US. In this study, we quantify the regional carbon impacts of the bark beetle outbreaks taking place in western US forests. The work relies on a combination of postdisturbance forest regrowth trajectories derived from forest inventory data and a process‐based carbon cycle model tracking decomposition, as well as aerial detection survey (ADS) data documenting the regional extent and severity of recent outbreaks. We find that biomass killed by bark beetle attacks across beetle‐affected areas in western US forests from 2000 to 2009 ranges from 5 to 15 Tg C yr^?1 and caused a reduction of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of about 6.1–9.3 Tg C y^?1 by 2009. Uncertainties result largely from a lack of detailed surveys of the extent and severity of outbreaks, calling out a need for improved characterization across western US forests. The carbon flux legacy of 2000–2009 outbreaks will continue decades into the future (e.g., 2040–2060) as committed emissions from heterotrophic respiration of beetle‐killed biomass are balanced by forest regrowth and accumulation.     

Variation in the population structure between a natural and a human‐modified forest for a pioneer tropical tree species not restricted to large gaps

The distribution of tree species in tropical forests is generally related to the occurrence of disturbances and shifts in the local environmental conditions such as light, temperature, and biotic factors. Thus, the distribution of pioneer tree species is expected to vary according to the gap characteristics and with human disturbances. We asked whether there was variation in the distribution of a pioneer species under different environmental conditions generated by natural disturbances, and between two forests with contrasting levels of human disturbance. To answer this question, we studied the distribution patterns and population persistence of the pioneer tree species Croton floribundus in the size and age gap range of a primary Brazilian forest. Additionally, we compared the plant density of two size‐classes between a primary and an early successional human‐disturbed forest. Croton floribundus was found to be widespread and equally distributed along the gap‐size gradient in the primary forest. Overall density did not vary with gap size or age (F‐ratio = 0.062, P = 0.941), and while juveniles were found to have a higher density in the early successional forest (P = 0.021), tree density was found to be similar between forests (P = 0.058). Our results indicate that the population structure of a pioneer tree species with long life span and a broad gap‐size niche preference varied between natural and human‐disturbed forests, but not with the level of natural disturbance. We believe this can be explained by the extreme environmental changes that occur after human disturbance. The ecological processes that affect the distribution of pioneer species in natural and human‐modified forests may be similar, but our results suggest they act differently under the contrasting environmental conditions generated by natural and human disturbances.     

Forecasting intensifying disturbance effects on coral reefs

Anticipating future changes of an ecosystem's dynamics requires knowledge of how its key communities respond to current environmental regimes. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under threat, with rapid changes of its reef‐building hard coral (HC) community structure already evident across broad spatial scales. While several underlying relationships between HC and multiple disturbances have been documented, responses of other benthic communities to disturbances are not well understood. Here we used statistical modelling to explore the effects of broad‐scale climate‐related disturbances on benthic communities to predict their structure under scenarios of increasing disturbance frequency. We parameterized a multivariate model using the composition of benthic communities estimated by 145,000 observations from the northern GBR between 2012 and 2017. During this time, surveyed reefs were variously impacted by two tropical cyclones and two heat stress events that resulted in extensive HC mortality. This unprecedented sequence of disturbances was used to estimate the effects of discrete versus interacting disturbances on the compositional structure of HC, soft corals (SC) and algae. Discrete disturbances increased the prevalence of algae relative to HC while the interaction between cyclones and heat stress was the main driver of the increase in SC relative to algae and HC. Predictions from disturbance scenarios included relative increases in algae versus SC that varied by the frequency and types of disturbance interactions. However, high uncertainty of compositional changes in the presence of several disturbances shows that responses of algae and SC to the decline in HC needs further research. Better understanding of the effects of multiple disturbances on benthic communities as a whole is essential for predicting the future status of coral reefs and managing them in the light of new environmental regimes. The approach we develop here opens new opportunities for reaching this goal.     

Comparison of forest above‐ground biomass from dynamic global vegetation models with spatially explicit remotely sensed observation‐based estimates

Gaps in our current understanding and quantification of biomass carbon stocks, particularly in tropics, lead to large uncertainty in future projections of the terrestrial carbon balance. We use the recently published GlobBiomass data set of forest above‐ground biomass (AGB) density for the year 2010, obtained from multiple remote sensing and in situ observations at 100 m spatial resolution to evaluate AGB estimated by nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). The global total forest AGB of the nine DGVMs is 365 ± 66 Pg C, the spread corresponding to the standard deviation between models, compared to 275 Pg C with an uncertainty of ~13.5% from GlobBiomass. Model‐data discrepancy in total forest AGB can be attributed to their discrepancies in the AGB density and/or forest area. While DGVMs represent the global spatial gradients of AGB density reasonably well, they only have modest ability to reproduce the regional spatial gradients of AGB density at scales below 1000 km. The 95th percentile of AGB density (AGB₉₅) in tropics can be considered as the potential maximum of AGB density which can be reached for a given annual precipitation. GlobBiomass data show local deficits of AGB density compared to the AGB₉₅, particularly in transitional and/or wet regions in tropics. We hypothesize that local human disturbances cause more AGB density deficits from GlobBiomass than from DGVMs, which rarely represent human disturbances. We then analyse empirical relationships between AGB density deficits and forest cover changes, population density, burned areas and livestock density. Regression analysis indicated that more than 40% of the spatial variance of AGB density deficits in South America and Africa can be explained; in Southeast Asia, these factors explain only ~25%. This result suggests TRENDY v6 DGVMs tend to underestimate biomass loss from diverse and widespread anthropogenic disturbances, and as a result overestimate turnover time in AGB.     

Effects of Hurricanes on Rare Plant Demography in Fire‐Controlled Ecosystems

Hurricanes have dramatic effects on forest vegetation, but their effects on shrublands have rarely been studied. We analyzed the effects of three 2004 hurricanes—among the strongest on record in Florida—on vital rates of 12 rare plant species of pyrogenic interior Florida scrub and sandhill. Tree damage varied by vegetation type (being highest in areas with Pinus clausa) and was associated with debris deposition. Most rare species were minimally impacted by hurricanes. The two most frequently damaged species were the shrubs Prunus geniculata (11% of individuals) and Asimina obovata (7%); both were resilient to damage. Prunus geniculata had little mortality during the hurricane year but damaged plants had a temporary (1‐yr) reduction in relative growth rate. Prunus geniculata flowering was unaffected by hurricane damage. Hurricane damage had no effects on vital rates of A. obovata, Eriogonum longifolium var. gnaphalifolium, or Chrysopsis highlandsensis. Other species suffered little or no observable hurricane damage. Of 12 species analyzed, nine had similar annual survival in hurricane and nonhurricane years. Relatively low survival in the hurricane year (compared with other years) was linked to prehurricane drought or prescribed fire in two of three species. Thus, the 2004 hurricanes did not have important effects on populations of interior Florida scrub and sandhill plants, especially herbaceous species. This is in marked contrast to dramatic demographic responses to fire in central Florida and strong effects of hurricanes in coastal Florida, highlighting that these different disturbances may have divergent effects on vegetation and populations over short distances.