Interactions Among Fuel Management,Species Composition,Bark Beetles,and Climate Change and the Potential Effects on Forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin

Climate-driven increases in wildfires, drought conditions, and insect outbreaks are critical threats to forest carbon stores. In particular, bark beetles are important disturbance agents although their long-term interactions with future climate change are poorly understood. Droughts and the associated moisture deficit contribute to the onset of bark beetle outbreaks although outbreak extent and severity is dependent upon the density of host trees, wildfire, and forest management. Our objective was to estimate the effects of climate change and bark beetle outbreaks on ecosystem carbon dynamics over the next century in a western US forest. Specifically, we hypothesized that (a) bark beetle outbreaks under climate change would reduce net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) and increase uncertainty and (b) these effects could be ameliorated by fuels management. We also examined the specific tree species dynamics—competition and release—that determined NECB response to bark beetle outbreaks. Our study area was the Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB), CA and NV, USA, an area of diverse forest types encompassing steep elevation and climatic gradients and representative of mixed-conifer forests throughout the western United States. We simulated climate change, bark beetles, wildfire, and fuels management using a landscape-scale stochastic model of disturbance and succession. We simulated the period 2010–2100 using downscaled climate projections. Recurring droughts generated conditions conducive to large-scale outbreaks; the resulting large and sustained outbreaks significantly increased the probability of LTB forests becoming C sources over decadal time scales, with slower-than-anticipated landscape-scale recovery. Tree species composition was substantially altered with a reduction in functional redundancy and productivity. Results indicate heightened uncertainty due to the synergistic influences of climate change and interacting disturbances. Our results further indicate that current fuel management practices will not be effective at reducing landscape-scale outbreak mortality. Our results provide critical insights into the interaction of drivers (bark beetles, wildfire, fuel management) that increase the risk of C loss and shifting community composition if bark beetle outbreaks become more frequent.     

Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles

Abstract

• 1 One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large‐scale disturbances to pine forests in the south‐eastern and western United States, respectively.
• 2 Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them.
• 3 To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables.
• 4 Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests.
• 5 Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study.
• 6 Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation.
• 7 Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long‐term distributional shifts of their host forests.

     

Spruce beetle outbreak was not driven by drought stress: Evidence from a tree‐ring iso‐demographic approach indicates temperatures were more important

Climate change has amplified eruptive bark beetle outbreaks over recent decades, including spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis). However, for projecting future bark beetle dynamics there is a critical lack of evidence to differentiate how outbreaks have been promoted by direct effects of warmer temperatures on beetle life cycles versus indirect effects of drought on host susceptibility. To diagnose whether drought‐induced host‐weakening was important to beetle attack success we used an iso‐demographic approach in Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) forests that experienced widespread mortality caused by spruce beetle outbreaks in the 1990s, during a prolonged drought across the central and southern Rocky Mountain region. We determined tree death date demography during this outbreak to differentiate early‐ and late‐dying trees in stands distributed across a landscape within this larger regional mortality event. To directly test for a role of drought stress during outbreak initiation we determined whether early‐dying trees had greater sensitivity of tree‐ring carbon isotope discrimination (?¹³C) to drought compared to late‐dying trees. Rather, evidence indicated the abundance and size of host trees may have modified ?¹³C responses to drought. ?¹³C sensitivity to drought did not differ among early‐ versus late‐dying trees, which runs contrary to previously proposed links between spruce beetle outbreaks and drought. Overall, our results provide strong support for the view that irruptive spruce beetle outbreaks across North America have primarily been driven by warming‐amplified beetle life cycles whereas drought‐weakened host defenses appear to have been a distant secondary driver of these major disturbance events.     

Spatial distribution of young forests and carbon fluxes within recent disturbances in Russia

Forest stand age plays a major role in regulating carbon fluxes in boreal and temperate ecosystems. Young boreal forests represent a relatively small but persistent source of carbon to the atmosphere over 30 years after disturbance, while temperate forests switch from a substantial source over the first 10 years to a notable sink until they reach maturity. Russian forests are the largest contiguous forest belt in the world that accounts for 17% of the global forest cover; however, despite its critical role in controlling global carbon cycle, little is known about spatial patterns of young forest distribution across Russia as a whole, particularly before the year 2000. Here, we present a map of young (0–27 years of age) forests, where 12‐ to 27‐year‐old forests were modeled from the single‐date 500 m satellite record and augmented with the 0‐ to 11‐year‐old forest map aggregated from the 30 m resolution contemporary record between 2001 and 2012. The map captures the distribution of forests with the overall accuracy exceeding 85% within three largest bioclimatic vegetation zones (northern, middle, and southern taiga), although mapping accuracy for disturbed classes was generally low (the highest of 31% for user's and producer's accuracy for the 12–27 age class and the maximum of 74% for user's and 32% for producer's accuracy for the 0–11 age class). The results show that 75.5 ± 17.6 Mha (roughly 9%) of Russian forests were younger than 30 years of age at the end of 2012. The majority of these 47 ± 4.7 Mha (62%) were distributed across the middle taiga bioclimatic zone. Based on the published estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP) and the produced map of young forests, this study estimates that young Russian forests represent a total sink of carbon at the rate of 1.26 Tg C yr^?1.     

Long-term impact of a stand-replacing fire on ecosystem CO2 exchange of a ponderosa pine forest

Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests of the southwestern United States are a mosaic of stands where undisturbed forests are carbon sinks, and stands recovering from wildfires may be sources of carbon to the atmosphere for decades after the fire. However, the relative magnitude of these sinks and sources has never been directly measured in this region, limiting our understanding of the role of fire in regional and US carbon budgets. We used the eddy covariance technique to measure the CO₂ exchange of two forest sites, one burned by fire in 1996, and an unburned forest. The fire was a high‐intensity stand‐replacing burn that killed all trees. Ten years after the fire, the burned site was still a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere [109±6 (SEM) g C m^?2 yr^?1], whereas the unburned site was a sink (?164±23 g C m^?2 yr^?1). The fire reduced total carbon storage and shifted ecosystem carbon allocation from the forest floor and living biomass to necromass. Annual ecosystem respiration was lower at the burned site (480±5 g C m^?2 yr^?1) than at the unburned site (710±54 g C m^?2 yr^?1), but the difference in gross primary production was even larger (372±13 g C m^?2 yr^?1 at the burned site and 858±37 g C m^?2 yr^?1at the unburned site). Water availability controlled carbon flux in the warm season at both sites, and the burned site was a source of carbon in all months, even during the summer, when wet and warm conditions favored respiration more than photosynthesis. Our study shows that carbon losses following stand‐replacing fires in ponderosa pine forests can persist for decades due to slow recovery of the gross primary production. Because fire exclusion is becoming increasingly difficult in dry western forests, a large US forest carbon sink could shift to a decadal‐scale carbon source.     

Carbon pool densities and a first estimate of the total carbon pool in the Mongolian forest‐steppe

The boreal forest biome represents one of the most important terrestrial carbon stores, which gave reason to intensive research on carbon stock densities. However, such an analysis does not yet exist for the southernmost Eurosiberian boreal forests in Inner Asia. Most of these forests are located in the Mongolian forest‐steppe, which is largely dominated by Larix sibirica. We quantified the carbon stock density and total carbon pool of Mongolia's boreal forests and adjacent grasslands and draw conclusions on possible future change. Mean aboveground carbon stock density in the interior of L. sibirica forests was 66 Mg C ha^?1, which is in the upper range of values reported from boreal forests and probably due to the comparably long growing season. The density of soil organic carbon (SOC, 108 Mg C ha^?1) and total belowground carbon density (149 Mg C ha^?1) are at the lower end of the range known from boreal forests, which might be the result of higher soil temperatures and a thinner permafrost layer than in the central and northern boreal forest belt. Land use effects are especially relevant at forest edges, where mean carbon stock density was 188 Mg C ha^?1, compared with 215 Mg C ha^?1 in the forest interior. Carbon stock density in grasslands was 144 Mg C ha^?1. Analysis of satellite imagery of the highly fragmented forest area in the forest‐steppe zone showed that Mongolia's total boreal forest area is currently 73 818 km², and 22% of this area refers to forest edges (defined as the first 30 m from the edge). The total forest carbon pool of Mongolia was estimated at ~ 1.5?1.7 Pg C, a value which is likely to decrease in future with increasing deforestation and fire frequency, and global warming.     

Spatial distribution of phytomass carbon in Indian forests

A spatial analysis of phytomass carbon (C) in Indian forests for the period (1988–94) at the district‐level is reported. District‐level forest phytomass C (1988, 1994) was computed by combining remote sensing‐based forest area inventories on 1:250 000 scale, field inventories of growing stock volume by the Forest Survey of India (FSI), and crown density‐based biomass expansion factors. The estimates of forest area inventory, forest phytomass C density, and forest phytomass C pools (1988–94) were linked to the district boundary coverage of India in ARC/INFO Geographic Information System (GIS). Of the total 386 districts examined, only 17 districts had more than 75% forest cover (as percent of their geographic area) in 1988. Estimated district‐level forest phytomass C densities ranged from 4.3 to 206.8 MgC ha^?1*. At the national level, forest phytomass C pool was estimated to be 3871.2 and 3874.3 TgC# in 1988 and 1994, respectively. Although the aggregated national estimates were similar, the district‐level change analysis indicated a decrease of 77.8 TgC and an increase of 81 TgC (1988–94). The highest decrease of 10.4 TgC was observed in Vishakapatnam district (Andhra Pradesh) while largest increase of 9.8 TgC in Bastar district (Madhya Pradesh) resulting from deforestation and afforestation activities, respectively. At the national level, the total forest cover decreased by ～0.6 Mha, however, the district‐level spatial analysis indicated an increase of 1.07 Mha, and decrease of 1.65 Mha forest cover during 1988–94 period. Although, this is the first district level phytomass C analysis of Indian forests, the aggregated results at state‐level were close to the earlier estimates. The spatial analysis identified the districts that have undergone significant changes in their forest phytomass C during the study period. This improved understanding of forest phytomass C pools is important to sustainable development and conservation of forests, mitigation strategies for C sequestration, and accurate estimation of contribution of land use changes to C emission in India.     

Reconstruction and attribution of the carbon sink of European forests between 1950 and 2000

European forests are an important carbon sink; however, the relative contributions to this sink of climate, atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]), nitrogen deposition and forest management are under debate. We attributed the European carbon sink in forests using ORCHIDEE‐FM, a process‐based vegetation model that differs from earlier versions of ORCHIDEE by its explicit representation of stand growth and idealized forest management. The model was applied on a grid across Europe to simulate changes in the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of forests with and without changes in climate, [CO₂] and age structure, the three drivers represented in ORCHIDEE‐FM. The model simulates carbon stocks and volume increment that are comparable – root mean square error of 2 m³ ha^?1 yr^?1 and 1.7 kg C m^?2 respectively – with inventory‐derived estimates at country level for 20 European countries. Our simulations estimate a mean European forest NEP of 175 ± 52 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the 1990s. The model simulation that is most consistent with inventory records provides an upwards trend of forest NEP of 1 ± 0.5 g C m^?2 yr^?2 between 1950 and 2000 across the EU 25. Furthermore, the method used for reconstructing past age structure was found to dominate its contribution to temporal trends in NEP. The potentially large fertilizing effect of nitrogen deposition cannot be told apart, as the model does not explicitly simulate the nitrogen cycle. Among the three drivers that were considered in this study, the fertilizing effect of increasing [CO₂] explains about 61% of the simulated trend, against 26% to changes in climate and 13% only to changes in forest age structure. The major role of [CO₂] at the continental scale is due to its homogeneous impact on net primary productivity (NPP). At the local scale, however, changes in climate and forest age structure often dominate trends in NEP by affecting NPP and heterotrophic respiration.     

Increased topsoil carbon stock across China's forests

Biomass carbon accumulation in forest ecosystems is a widespread phenomenon at both regional and global scales. However, as coupled carbon–climate models predicted, a positive feedback could be triggered if accelerated soil carbon decomposition offsets enhanced vegetation growth under a warming climate. It is thus crucial to reveal whether and how soil carbon stock in forest ecosystems has changed over recent decades. However, large‐scale changes in soil carbon stock across forest ecosystems have not yet been carefully examined at both regional and global scales, which have been widely perceived as a big bottleneck in untangling carbon–climate feedback. Using newly developed database and sophisticated data mining approach, here we evaluated temporal changes in topsoil carbon stock across major forest ecosystem in China and analysed potential drivers in soil carbon dynamics over broad geographical scale. Our results indicated that topsoil carbon stock increased significantly within all of five major forest types during the period of 1980s–2000s, with an overall rate of 20.0 g C m^?2 yr^?1 (95% confidence interval, 14.1–25.5). The magnitude of soil carbon accumulation across coniferous forests and coniferous/broadleaved mixed forests exhibited meaningful increases with both mean annual temperature and precipitation. Moreover, soil carbon dynamics across these forest ecosystems were positively associated with clay content, with a larger amount of SOC accumulation occurring in fine‐textured soils. In contrast, changes in soil carbon stock across broadleaved forests were insensitive to either climatic or edaphic variables. Overall, these results suggest that soil carbon accumulation does not counteract vegetation carbon sequestration across China's forest ecosystems. The combination of soil carbon accumulation and vegetation carbon sequestration triggers a negative feedback to climate warming, rather than a positive feedback predicted by coupled carbon–climate models.     

Simulating the effects of harvest and biofuel production on the forest system carbon balance of the Midwest,USA

Forests of the Midwestern United States are an important source of fiber for the wood and paper products industries. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers are interested in using woody biomass and/or harvest residue for biofuel feedstocks. However, the effects of increased biomass removal for biofuel production on forest production and forest system carbon balance remain uncertain. We modeled the carbon (C) cycle of the forest system by dividing it into two distinct components: (1) biological (net ecosystem production, net primary production, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, vegetation, and soil C content) and (2) industrial (harvest operations and transportation, production, use, and disposal of major wood products including biofuel and associated C emissions). We modeled available woody biomass feedstock and whole‐system carbon balance of 220 000 km² of temperate forests in the Upper Midwest, USA by coupling an ecosystem process model to a collection of greenhouse gas life‐cycle inventory models and simulating seven forest harvest scenarios in the biological ecosystem and three biofuel production scenarios in the industrial system for 50 years. The forest system was a carbon sink (118 g C m^?2 yr^?1) under current management practices and forest product production rates. However, the system became a C source when harvest area was doubled and biofuel production replaced traditional forest products. Total carbon stores in the vegetation and soil increased by 5–10% under low‐intensity management scenarios and current management, but decreased up to 3% under high‐intensity harvest regimes. Increasing harvest residue removal during harvest had more modest effects on forest system C balance and total biomass removal than increasing the rate of clear‐cut harvests or area harvested. Net forest system C balance was significantly, and negatively correlated (R² = 0.67) with biomass harvested, illustrating the trade‐offs between increased C uptake by forests and utilization of woody biomass for biofuel feedstock.     

Thinning Jeffrey pine stands to reduce susceptibility to bark beetle infestations in California,U.S.A.

• 1 Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) are commonly recognized as important tree mortality agents in coniferous forests of the western U.S.A.
• 2 High stand density is consistently associated with bark beetle infestations in western coniferous forests, and therefore thinning has long been advocated as a preventive measure to alleviate or reduce the amount of bark beetle‐caused tree mortality.
• 3 The present study aimed to determine the effectiveness of thinning to reduce stand susceptibility to bark beetle infestations over a 10‐year period in Pinus jeffreyi forests on the Tahoe National Forest, California, U.S.A. Four treatments were replicated three times within 1‐ha square experimental plots. Treatments included thinning from below (i.e. initiating in the smallest diameter classes) to a residual target basal area (cross‐sectional area of trees at 1.37 m in height) of: (i) 18.4 m²/ha (low density thin); (ii) 27.6 m²/ha (medium density thin); (iii) 41.3 m²/ha (high density thin); and (iv) no stand manipulation (untreated control).
• 4 Throughout the present study, 107 trees died as a result of bark beetle attacks. Of these, 71% (75 trees) were Abies concolor killed by Scolytus ventralis; 20.6% (22 trees) were Pinus ponderosa killed by Dendroctonus ponderosae; 4.7% (five trees) were P. jeffreyi killed by Dendroctonus jeffreyi; 1.8% (two trees) were P. jeffreyi killed by Ips pini; 0.9% (one tree) were P. jeffreyi killed by Orthotomicus (= Ips) latidens; 0.9% (one tree) were P. ponderosa killed by both Dendroctonus brevicomis and D. ponderosae; and 0.9% (one tree) were P. jeffreyi killed by unknown causes.
• 5 In the low density thin, no pines were killed by bark beetles during the 10‐year period. Significantly fewer trees (per ha/year) were killed in the low density thin than the high density thin or untreated control. No significant treatment effect was observed for the percentage of trees (per year) killed by bark beetles.

     

A predictive framework to assess spatio‐temporal variability of infestations by the European spruce bark beetle

Natural disturbances are key factors for the development of forest ecosystems. In forests of central Europe and Scandinavia, the European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most devastating biotic disturbance agent in Norway spruce Picea abies, but our understanding of the factors determining its spatio‐temporal dynamics is still quite limited. To quantify the drivers of bark beetle dynamics, we analyzed a survey dataset with annual resolution that covers 17 yr and 469 forest districts (10 860 km² of forest area) all over Switzerland. We used Poisson log‐normal models in a Bayesian framework to analyze the spatio‐temporal dynamics of bark beetle infestation spots at the forest district level. Bark beetle infestations increased with increasing heat sum (> 8.3°C), volume of standing Norway spruce stock, and the number of infestation spots of the previous year. Precipitation tended to slightly affect the risk of bark beetle infestations. Two major storm events further increased the spatio‐temporal variability of bark beetle infestations. Spruce abundance, storm damage and temperature are known to be important factors influencing the population dynamics of the European spruce bark beetle. Our study is the first to quantify the combined effects of spruce abundance and heat sum, whereby the heat sum turned out to be the most important and consistent predictor. Because our study area encompasses large ecological and climatological gradients, our model is likely to be applicable to Norway spruce forests in other regions of central Europe and Scandinavia.     

Net ecosystem exchange modifies the relationship between the autotrophic and heterotrophic components of soil respiration with abiotic factors in prairie grasslands

We investigated the relationships of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), soil temperature, and moisture with soil respiration rate and its components at a grassland ecosystem. Stable carbon isotopes were used to separate soil respiration into autotrophic and heterotrophic components within an eddy covariance footprint during the 2008 and 2009 growing seasons. After correction for self‐correlation, rates of soil respiration and its autotrophic and heterotrophic components for both years were found to be strongly influenced by variations in daytime NEE – the amount of C retained in the ecosystem during the daytime, as derived from NEE measurements when photosynthetically active radiation was above 0 μmol m^?2 s^?1. The time scale for correlation of variations in daytime NEE with fluctuations in respiration was longer for heterotrophic respiration (36–42 days) than for autotrophic respiration (4–6 days). In addition to daytime NEE, autotrophic respiration was also sensitive to soil moisture but not soil temperature. In contrast, heterotrophic respiration from soils was sensitive to changes in soil temperature, soil moisture, and daytime NEE. Our results show that – as for forests – plant activity is an important driver of both components of soil respiration in this tallgrass prairie grassland ecosystem. Heterotrophic respiration had a slower coupling with plant activity than did autotrophic respiration. Our findings suggest that the frequently observed variations in the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature or moisture may stem from variations in the proportions of autotrophic and heterotrophic components of soil respiration. Rates of photosynthesis at seasonal time scales should also be considered as a driver of both autotrophic and heterotrophic soil respiration for ecosystem flux modeling.     

Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate

Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal‐dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests—one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic—along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm‐water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year^?1. This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate‐driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of climate change on carbon cycling.     

Carbon isotopic composition of forest soil respiration in the decade following bark beetle and stem girdling disturbances in the Rocky Mountains

Bark beetle outbreaks are widespread in western North American forests, reducing primary productivity and transpiration, leading to forest mortality across large areas and altering ecosystem carbon cycling. Here the carbon isotope composition (δ¹³C) of soil respiration (δ_J) was monitored in the decade after disturbance for forests affected naturally by mountain pine beetle infestation and artificially by stem girdling. The seasonal mean δ_J changed along both chronosequences. We found (a) enrichment of δ_J relative to controls (<1 ‰) in near‐surface soils in the first 2 years after disturbance; (b) depletion (1‰ or no change) during years 3–7; and (c) a second period of enrichment (1–2‰) in years 8–10. Results were consistent with isotopic patterns associated with the gradual death and decomposition of rhizosphere organisms, fine roots, conifer needles and woody roots and debris over the course of a decade after mortality. Finally, δ_J was progressively more ¹³C‐depleted deeper in the soil than near the surface, while the bulk soil followed the well‐established pattern of ¹³C‐enrichment at depth. Overall, differences in δ_J between mortality classes (<1‰) and soil depths (<3‰) were smaller than variability within a class or depth over a season (up to 6‰).     

Anomalous outbreaks of an invasive defoliator and native bark beetle facilitated by warm temperatures,changes in precipitation and interspecific interactions

Biotic disturbance agents such as insects can be highly responsive to climatic change and have widespread ecological and economic impacts on forests. Quantifying the responses of introduced and native insects to climate, including how dynamics of one agent may mediate those of another, is important for forecasting disturbance and associated impacts on forest structure and function. We investigated drivers of outbreaks by larch casebearer Coleophora laricella, an invasive defoliator, and eastern larch beetle Dendroctonus simplex, a native, tree‐killing bark beetle, on tamarack Larix laricina from 2000 to in Minnesota, USA. We evaluated the utility of temporal, spatial and climatic variables in predicting the presence/absence of outbreaks of each insect in cells of rasterized aerial survey data. The role of defoliation by larch casebearer in outbreaks of eastern larch beetle was also investigated. For both species, the most important predictors of outbreak occurrence were proximity of conspecific outbreaks in space and time. For larch casebearer, outbreak occurrence was positively associated with spring precipitation and warmer growing seasons. Outbreak occurrence of eastern larch beetle was positively associated with warmer and dryer years and was more likely in cells with prior defoliation by larch casebearer. Our results demonstrate that climate can drive large scale outbreaks of introduced and non‐native disturbance agents on a single host species, and that interactions at the tree level between such agents may scale up to manifest across large temporal and spatial scales.     

What explains landscape patterns of tree mortality caused by bark beetle outbreaks in Greater Yellowstone?

Aim Bark beetle outbreaks have recently affected extensive areas of western North American forests, and factors explaining landscape patterns of tree mortality are poorly understood. The objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of stand structure, topography, soil characteristics, landscape context (the characteristics of the landscape surrounding the focal stand) and beetle pressure (the abundance of local beetle population eruptions around the focal stand a few years before the outbreak) to explain landscape patterns of tree mortality during outbreaks of three species: the mountain pine beetle, which attacks lodgepole pine and whitebark pine; the spruce beetle, which feeds on Engelmann spruce; and the Douglas‐fir beetle, which attacks Douglas‐fir. A second objective was to identify common variables that explain tree mortality among beetle–tree host pairings during outbreaks. Location Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, Wyoming, USA. Methods We used field surveys to quantify stand structure, soil characteristics and topography at the plot level in susceptible stands of each forest type showing different severities of infestation (0–98% mortality; n= 129 plots). We then used forest cover and beetle infestation maps derived from remote sensing to develop landscape context and beetle pressure metrics at different spatial scales. Plot‐level and landscape‐level variables were used to explain outbreak severity. Results Engelmann spruce and Douglas‐fir mortality were best predicted using landscape‐level variables alone. Lodgepole pine mortality was best predicted by both landscape‐level and plot‐level variables. Whitebark pine mortality was best – although poorly – predicted by plot‐level variables. Models including landscape context and beetle pressure were much better at predicting outbreak severity than models that only included plot‐level measures, except for whitebark pine. Main conclusions Landscape‐level variables, particularly beetle pressure, were the most consistent predictors of subsequent outbreak severity within susceptible stands of all four host species. These results may help forest managers identify vulnerable locations during ongoing outbreaks.     

神农架海拔梯度上4种典型森林的土壤呼吸组分及其对温度的敏感性

量化森林土壤呼吸及其组分对温度的响应对准确评估未来气候变化背景下陆地生态系统的碳平衡极其重要。该文通过对神农架海拔梯度上常绿阔叶林、常绿落叶阔叶混交林、落叶阔叶林以及亚高山针叶林4种典型森林土壤呼吸的研究发现: 4种森林类型的年平均土壤呼吸速率和年平均异养呼吸速率分别为1.63、1.79、1.74、1.35 μmol CO₂·m^-2·s^-1和1.13、1.12、1.12、0.80 μmol CO₂·m^-2·s^-1。该地区的土壤呼吸及其组分呈现出明显的季节动态, 夏季最高, 冬季最低。4种森林类型中, 阔叶林的土壤呼吸显著高于针叶林, 但阔叶林之间的土壤呼吸差异不显著。土壤温度是影响土壤呼吸及其组分的主要因素, 二者呈显著的指数关系; 土壤含水量与土壤呼吸之间没有显著的相关关系。4种典型森林土壤呼吸的Q₁₀值分别为2.38、2.68、2.99和4.24, 随海拔的升高土壤呼吸对温度的敏感性增强, Q₁₀值随海拔的升高而增加。     

Climate change enhances primary production in the western Antarctic Peninsula

Intense regional warming was observed in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the last 50 years. Here, we investigate the impact of climate change on primary production (PP) in this highly productive region. This study is based on temporal data series of ozone thickness (1972–2010), sea ice concentration (1978–2010), sea‐surface temperature (1990–2010), incident irradiance (1988–2010) and satellite‐derived chlorophyll a concentration (Chl‐a, 1997–2010) for the coastal WAP. In addition, we apply a photosynthesis/photoinhibition spectral model to satellite‐derived data (1997–2010) to compute PP and examine the separate impacts of environmental forcings. Since 1978, sea ice retreat has been occurring earlier in the season (in March in 1978 and in late October during the 2000s) while the ozone hole is present in early spring (i.e. August to November) since the early 1990s, increasing the intensity of ultraviolet‐B radiation (UVBR, 280–320 nm). The WAP waters have also warmed over 1990–2010. The modelled PP rates are in the lower range of previously reported PP rates in the WAP. The annual open water PP in the study area increased from 1997 to 2010 (from 0.73 to 1.03 Tg C yr^?1) concomitantly with the increase in the production season length. The coincidence between the earlier sea ice retreat and the presence of the ozone hole increased the exposure to incoming radiation (UVBR, UVAR and PAR) and, thus, increased photoinhibition during austral spring (September to November) in the study area (from 0.014 to 0.025 Tg C yr^?1). This increase in photoinhibition was minor compared to the overall increase in PP, however. Climate change hence had an overall positive impact on PP in the WAP waters.     

Soil carbon sequestration due to post‐Soviet cropland abandonment: estimates from a large‐scale soil organic carbon field inventory

The break‐up of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered cropland abandonment on a continental scale, which in turn led to carbon accumulation on abandoned land across Eurasia. Previous studies have estimated carbon accumulation rates across Russia based on large‐scale modelling. Studies that assess carbon sequestration on abandoned land based on robust field sampling are rare. We investigated soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks using a randomized sampling design along a climatic gradient from forest steppe to Sub‐Taiga in Western Siberia (Tyumen Province). In total, SOC contents were sampled on 470 plots across different soil and land‐use types. The effect of land use on changes in SOC stock was evaluated, and carbon sequestration rates were calculated for different age stages of abandoned cropland. While land‐use type had an effect on carbon accumulation in the topsoil (0–5 cm), no independent land‐use effects were found for deeper SOC stocks. Topsoil carbon stocks of grasslands and forests were significantly higher than those of soils managed for crops and under abandoned cropland. SOC increased significantly with time since abandonment. The average carbon sequestration rate for soils of abandoned cropland was 0.66 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 (1–20 years old, 0–5 cm soil depth), which is at the lower end of published estimates for Russia and Siberia. There was a tendency towards SOC saturation on abandoned land as sequestration rates were much higher for recently abandoned (1–10 years old, 1.04 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1) compared to earlier abandoned crop fields (11–20 years old, 0.26 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1). Our study confirms the global significance of abandoned cropland in Russia for carbon sequestration. Our findings also suggest that robust regional surveys based on a large number of samples advance model‐based continent‐wide SOC prediction.