Carbon sequestration potential in European croplands has been overestimated

Yearly, per‐area carbon sequestration rates are used to estimate mitigation potentials by comparing types and areas of land management in 1990 and 2000 and projected to 2010, for the European Union (EU)‐15 and for four country‐level case studies for which data are available: UK, Sweden, Belgium and Finland. Because cropland area is decreasing in these countries (except for Belgium), and in most European countries there are no incentives in place to encourage soil carbon sequestration, carbon sequestration between 1990 and 2000 was small or negative in the EU‐15 and all case study countries. Belgium has a slightly higher estimate for carbon sequestration than the other countries examined. This is at odds with previous reports of decreasing soil organic carbon stocks in Flanders. For all countries except Belgium, carbon sequestration is predicted to be negligible or negative by 2010, based on extrapolated trends, and is small even in Belgium. The only trend in agriculture that may be enhancing carbon stocks on croplands at present is organic farming, and the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Previous studies have focused on the potential for carbon sequestration and have shown quite significant potential. This study, which examines the sequestration likely to occur by 2010, suggests that the potential will not be realized. Without incentives for carbon sequestration in the future, cropland carbon sequestration under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol will not be an option in EU‐15.     

黄土高原丘陵区退耕还林地油松人工林碳储量及分配特征研究

以黄土高原丘陵区主要退耕还林树种油松为研究对象,对甘肃省庆阳市合水县采用样地调查与生物量实测方法,分析不同坡向（阳坡、阴坡）及退耕年限（退耕6年、9年和12年）油松人工林的乔木不同器官、灌草层、枯落物层和土壤层的碳含量,以及油松人工林乔木层、灌草层、枯落物层和土壤层碳储量及其分配特征,探讨甘肃黄土高原丘陵区生态林的固碳作用。结果表明:（1）油松不同器官碳含量为48.15%~53.90%,各器官碳含量大小为树干>叶>细枝>粗枝>根桩>粗根>树皮>大根>中根>小根>细根>球果;灌木层碳含量为茎>叶>根;草本层碳含量为地上部分>地下部分。（2）油松人工林的枯落物层碳含量为未分解层大于半分解层。（3）0~100 cm土壤层的碳含量随退耕年限增加而增大,随土壤深度的增加而下降;0~10 cm、10~20 cm土壤层不同坡向间碳含量差异显著。（4）阳坡和阴坡退耕6年、9年和12年油松林总碳储量分别为42.90、50.50、59.22 t·hm^-2和45.08、53.77、65.70 t·hm^-2。研究认为,黄土高原丘陵区阳坡和阴坡均适宜油松林发挥固碳效益,且阴坡要优于阳坡,是甘肃黄土高原丘陵区的理想树种。     

内蒙古武川县农田退耕还草对粪金龟子群落的影响

2006年5-9月,诱捕法采集粪金龟子,以农田为对照,选择内蒙古武川县不同农田退耕管理方式为研究样地,分析了农田退耕后采取不同管理方式对粪金龟子群落的影响,以为农田退耕还草管理措施生态效应的评价和完善提供依据.共捕获粪金龟子21671头,隶属于3科5属25种.优势种为直蜉金龟(Aphodius rectus)和蜉金龟属(Aphodius sp.7),占总捕获量的比例分别为59.34％和11.71％.几种退耕管理方式都导致粪金龟子群落物种丰富度、生物量和多度提高,且具有显著的季节特征.Pearson相关分析表明,粪金龟子群落的物种丰富度、生物量和种数以及不同功能群和主要种的个体数与退耕年限、平均草高和植物群落盖度的变化存在显著正相关关系(P＜0.01或P＜0.05).由于长期农业耕作以及缺少大型食草动物和较大面积放牧草地,研究地区的粪金龟子群落组成以功能群Ⅱ和Ⅲ为主,功能群Ⅰ的多度和物种丰度较低.可以认为,在研究地区以农田景观为主要基质的区域,采取多样化的农田退耕管理方式,提高了生境的空间异质性,在减少人为耕作活动对粪金龟子影响的基础上,对粪金龟子物种丰度和多度的维持起到了促进作用.农田退耕、保留适当面积放牧草地或适当数量大型放牧家畜将有利于功能群Ⅰ物种丰度和多度的提高,有益于粪金龟子群落物种多样性和整体生态功能的维持.     

石羊河下游民勤绿洲退耕地植被自然演替特征及物种多样性分析

采用重要值、Margalef物种丰富度指数、Shannon-wiener和Simpson多样性指数、Pielou和Alatalo均匀度指数对石羊河下游民勤绿洲不同年限退耕地自然恢复的植物群落进行了研究。结果表明:(1)石羊河下游民勤绿洲退耕地在50a自然恢复过程中共出现植物34种,14科,其中灌木6种,草本28种,分别占总物种数的17.65%和82.35%;藜科(8种)、禾本科(6种)、蒺藜科(4种)植物占总物种数的52.94%。(2)研究区退耕后50a植物群落演替经历为:田旋花→藜→苦苣菜→骆驼蒿→骆驼蓬→盐生草→黑果枸杞→红砂→盐爪爪的演替过程。(3)群落物种丰富度和多样性指数均随退耕时间的延长而呈现出波动式下降的变化趋势,而均匀度指数则呈现出在退耕初期(1～5a)先下降然后呈波动式上升的变化趋势。研究表明,随着退耕年限的增加,群落物种组成逐渐减少,植物群落演替向前发展的大致经历分为4个阶段:退耕1～5a为一年生草本和宿根植物迅速恢复阶段,退耕5～15a为一年生草本植物向多年生草本演替阶段,退耕15～30a为多年生草本向多年生灌木演替阶段,退耕30～50a为多年生灌木植物稳定阶段。     

Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land‐use patterns: an analysis of the 1975–2006 period

Does agricultural intensification reduce the area used for agricultural production in Brazil? Census and other data for time periods 1975–1996 and 1996–2006 were processed and analyzed using Geographic Information System and statistical tools to investigate whether and if so, how, changes in yield and stocking rate coincide with changes in cropland and pasture area. Complementary medium‐resolution data on total farmland area changes were used in a spatially explicit assessment of the land‐use transitions that occurred in Brazil during 1960–2006. The analyses show that in agriculturally consolidated areas (mainly southern and southeastern Brazil), land‐use intensification (both on cropland and pastures) coincided with either contraction of both cropland and pasture areas, or cropland expansion at the expense of pastures, both cases resulting in farmland stability or contraction. In contrast, in agricultural frontier areas (i.e., the deforestation zones in central and northern Brazil), land‐use intensification coincided with expansion of agricultural lands. These observations provide support for the thesis that (i) technological improvements create incentives for expansion in agricultural frontier areas; and (ii) farmers are likely to reduce their managed acreage only if land becomes a scarce resource. The spatially explicit examination of land‐use transitions since 1960 reveals an expansion and gradual movement of the agricultural frontier toward the interior (center‐western Cerrado) of Brazil. It also indicates a possible initiation of a reversed trend in line with the forest transition theory, i.e., agricultural contraction and recurring forests in marginally suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, mainly within the Atlantic Forest biome. The significant reduction in deforestation that has taken place in recent years, despite rising food commodity prices, indicates that policies put in place to curb conversion of native vegetation to agriculture land might be effective. This can improve the prospects for protecting native vegetation by investing in agricultural intensification.     

城市扩张与耕地保护耦合对陆地生态系统碳储量的影响——以湖北省为例

城市扩张对生态系统的影响可以分为城市扩张对生态用地的直接挤占以及为补充城市扩张占用的耕地对生态用地二次挤占两个连锁的过程。以往的研究大多只关注城市扩张对生态系统的直接影响,忽略了城市扩张与耕地保护耦合的间接影响。针对这一问题,采用GIS空间分析方法和InVEST模型定量评估了2000年至2015年湖北省城市扩张与耕地保护耦合对陆地生态系统碳储量的影响。结果显示:(1)城市扩张与耕地保护耦合导致湖北省陆地生态系统碳储量减少40.90 Tg;(2)由城市扩张与耕地保护耦合导致的陆地生态系统碳储量的减少量中,耕地保护传导作用间接导致的占比31%。结果表明,城市扩张与耕地保护的耦合是导致生态系统碳储量减少的主要原因之一。忽视城市扩张通过耕地保护的传导作用对生态系统碳储量的间接影响,会导致城市扩张对陆地生态系统碳储量的影响被严重低估。     

A review of global potentially available cropland estimates and their consequences for model‐based assessments

The world's population is growing and demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel is increasing, placing greater demand on land and its resources for crop production. We review previously published estimates of global scale cropland availability, discuss the underlying assumptions that lead to differences between estimates, and illustrate the consequences of applying different estimates in model‐based assessments of land‐use change. The review estimates a range from 1552 to 5131 Mha, which includes 1550 Mha that is already cropland. Hence, the lowest estimates indicate that there is almost no room for cropland expansion, while the highest estimates indicate that cropland could potentially expand to over three times its current area. Differences can largely be attributed to institutional assumptions, i.e. which land covers/uses (e.g. forests or grasslands) are societally or governmentally allowed to convert to cropland, while there was little variation in biophysical assumptions. Estimates based on comparable assumptions showed a variation of up to 84%, which originated mainly from different underlying data sources. On the basis of this synthesis of the assumptions underlying these estimates, we constructed a high, a medium, and a low estimate of cropland availability that are representative of the range of estimates in the reviewed studies. We apply these estimates in a land‐change model to illustrate the consequences on cropland expansion and intensification as well as deforestation. While uncertainty in cropland availability is hardly addressed in global land‐use change assessments, the results indicate a large range of estimates with important consequences for model‐based assessments.