Livestock-driven land use change to model species distributions: Egyptian vulture as a case study

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict species ranges and their shifts under future scenarios of global environmental change (GEC). SDMs are thus incorporating key drivers of GEC (e.g. climate, land use) to improve predictions of species’ habitat suitability (i.e. as an indicator of species occurrence). Yet, most SDMs incorporating land use only consider dominant land cover types, largely ignoring other key aspects of land use such as land management intensity and livestock. We developed SDMs including main land use components (i.e. land cover, livestock and its management intensity) to assess their relative importance in shaping habitat suitability for the Egyptian vulture, an endangered raptor linked to livestock presence. We modelled current and future (2020 and 2050) habitat suitability for this vulture using an organism-centred approach. This allowed us to account for basic species’ habitat needs (i.e. nesting cliff) while gaining insight into our variables of interest (i.e. livestock and land cover). Once nest-site requirements were fulfilled, land use variables (i.e. openland and sheep and goat density) were the main factors determining species’ habitat suitability. Current suitable area could decrease by up to 6.81% by 2050 under scenarios with rapid economic growth but no focus on environmental conservation and rural development. Local solutions to environmental sustainability and rural development could double current habitat suitability by 2050. Land use is expected to play a key role in determining Egyptian vulture's distribution through land cover change but also through changes in livestock management (i.e. species and stocking density). Change in stocking densities (sheep and goats/km²) becomes thus an indicator of habitat suitability for this vulture in our study area. Abandonment of agro-pastoral practises (i.e. below ∼15–20 sheep and goats/km²) will negatively influence the species distribution. Nonetheless, livestock densities above these values will not further increase habitat suitability. Given the widespread impacts of livestock on ecosystems, the role of livestock and its management intensity in SDMs for other (non-livestock-related) species should be further explored.     

A spatial panel statistical analysis on cultivated land conversion and chinese economic growth

The conflict between cultivated land protection and economic development has become increasingly acute in recent years. Despite, intensive researches made on this conflict, little attention has been paid to the spatial correlation of variables. In view of this, the paper introduces the spatial panel regression model to estimate, and test whether the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land conversion conforms to Kuznets curve. Research results show that the area of converted cultivated land in China exhibits strong spatial auto-correlation; the spatial panel model with time effect and fixed effect is more stable and significant than conventional panel mode, and that the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land conversion agrees with the inverted U-shape of Kuznets curve, with inflection point occurring when average per capita GDP reaches ¥31330.93 (calculated at comparable price of 1999). On the basis of analysis, it is suggested that the government, with a view to developing economy alongside protecting cultivated land, should attach more importance to land use and planning in the future, pay more attention to the spatial correlation of cultivated land planning in adjacent areas and make greater efforts to increase the input–output ratio of land.     

Mayfly bioindicator thresholds for several anthropogenic disturbances in neotropical savanna streams

Anthropogenic disturbances are widely recognized as major threats to terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity worldwide, including areas located in non-forest ecosystems. Headwater streams in the neotropical savanna are severely threatened by large-scale landscape changes that degrade local habitat characteristics and lead to biodiversity loss. The objective of our study was to evaluate Ephemeroptera assemblages as bioindicators of catchment land use and cover, local streambed and riparian vegetation conditions, and instream water quality. To do so, we sampled mayfly nymphs in 184 stream sites across a broad disturbance gradient in four hydrologic units of the Brazilian neotropical savanna. We selected seven metrics without significant co-variation with natural variability: % catchment urban, riparian vegetation condition index (RCOND), human disturbances of the stream channel and riparian zone (W1_HALL), substrate mean embeddedness (XEMBED), dissolved oxygen (mg L⁻¹), pH, and total phosphorus (mg L⁻¹). We ran threshold indicator taxa analysis (TITAN) for each disturbance metric to detect change points in mayfly genera responses (whether sensitive or tolerant) and assemblage turnover pattern. TITAN showed that 20 of the 39 genera found were robust bioindicators (based on purity and reliability values >0.95), sixteen of them being sensitive to increased disturbance. The most sensitive genera were Tricorythopsis (Leptohyphidae) and Camelobaetidius (Baetidae), showing decreased abundance to most disturbance metrics. We found a turnover pattern of mayfly genera in response to W1_HALL in a narrow variation range. For total phosphorus, the benchmark value defined in Brazilian Federal Legislation is higher than the turnover threshold of several mayfly genera. This indicates that we will lose many sensitive genera even within the limits imposed by national environmental legislation. The indicator taxa approach, based on multiple taxa rather than univariate metrics or single indicator species, demonstrates the value of quantitative ecological information for conserving and managing freshwater ecosystems globally.     

Ecological and environmental effects of land use change in rapid urbanization: The case of hangzhou,China

Land use changes sharply under rapid urbanization, yet its ecological and environmental effects are often neglected in land use decisions. Using the case of Hangzhou, China, we analyze the ecological and environmental effects of land use changes, including ecosystem services value (ESV) and carbon emissions, based on Landsat TM images from 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014. We found significant ecological and environmental effects of land use changes under rapid urbanization. The value of ecosystem services in Hangzhou decreased from 546.7 million USD in 1995 to 448.97 million USD in 2014, and the ratio of ESV to GDP decreased from 5.8% to 0.6%. The net carbon emissions associated with land use changes increased from 4.26 million tons in 1995 to 15.10 million tons in 2014, mainly due to the increase of built-up land carbon emissions and the decrease of forest land carbon sink. The ESV is unevenly distributed spatially and low ESV spread from the central to the peripheral area. We use scenario analysis to illustrate that economic growth and environmental protection could be coordinated by bringing ecological and environmental effects into land use decisions.     

Intrinsic values in nature: Objective good or simply half of an unhelpful dichotomy?

Two generations of conservationists and philosophers have built a strong case for intrinsic values in nature; they are the basis of the normative postulates of conservation biology. I argue that the recognition of intrinsic natural value is a fundamental and non-negotiable aspect of an eco-evolutionary worldview. Recently, relational values, “preferences, principles, and virtues associated with relationships”, have been proposed as a third category of values in nature, which may help to resolve the debate between instrumental and intrinsic valuation. By depicting intrinsic values as part of an unhelpful dichotomy between anthropocentric and ecocentric values, the current assessment of relational values fails to adequately account for the modern philosophical view of intrinsic natural value. The recognition of intrinsic natural value is not merely an academic exercise, but rather a vital aspect of conservation of the biosphere; recognition of value entails the obligation to do what is right, i.e., protect the good. Any attempt to reframe the discussion about values and environmental protection through more formal recognition of relational values will need to more clearly address how relational and intrinsic values coexist and how they can jointly form the basis for nature conservation.     

Desertification,no‐change or alternative states: Can we trust simple models on livestock impact in dry rangelands?

Abstract. It is remarkable that after many thousands of years of pastoralism in arid and semi‐arid savannas, there is still no clear answer to the basic question: Does livestock grazing have more than a marginal effect on the dynamics of arid and semi‐arid land vegetation? A small study of semi‐arid savanna vegetation along a spatial gradient in grazing pressure, repeated three times over 19 years is used as a basis for discussing the behaviour of dry land vegetation under heavy grazing. Three basic theories are compared: (1) the theory that heavy grazing causes desertification; (2) the theory that heavy grazing causes no directed change in the vegetation of arid and semi‐arid rangelands; and (3) the theory that heavy grazing leads to a switch between alternative states of vegetation. On the basis of the current data the first two theories are rejected, but the conclusion is that there is much evidence for a more complex behaviour of dry rangelands under grazing than what is accommodated in any of the three theories. Probably, site‐specific properties including interactive and indirect effects of herbivory in the system are important for vegetation development under grazing in arid and semi‐arid rangelands.     

The regulation of activity in populations of the terrestrial slugLimax maximus (Gastropoda; Limacidae)

The activity of the slug Limax maximus was studied in relation to weather. Three hundred-and-fifty-eight hourly observations of activity and weather were made on 21 nights from May until October, 1976. Factors causally important to molluscan activity were included in a step-down correlation-regression analysis of daily and seasonal behavior. The analysis was also performed using weather data from the previous hourly observation. Models using lag-weather did not explain as much variability as did concurrent weather. The regression models explained about 73% to 87% of the observed variation in activity. The most important factors included in the regression models were time of day (circadian rhythm), light intensity, changes in light intensity and surface temperature. Shelter temperature, temperature gradients, length of the night, and time of sunset were also included in some models. Age and hydration were shown to be key factors in other experiments. A model incorporating weather thresholds estimated from field data explained 83.06% of the variability in the activity of L. maximus over the season. The values predicted from the model did not differ significantly from those actually observed in the field (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, p>0.50).     

Spatial evaluation of the ecological importance based on GIS for environmental management: A case study in Xingguo county of China

How to assort with the relationship between the urban construction and the maintenance of ecological security is a hot issue during the process of urbanization. The purpose of this study is to identify the key ecological land maintaining ecological security and to put forward some measures for environmental management. Based on the GIS technology, from the view of water security, biodiversity conservation, disaster protection, natural recreation security, and human disturbance, an integrated index is put forward to evaluate the ecological importance of regional space. Then, a GIS-based approach for evaluating ecological importance was created, with Xingguo county of China as a case study. The results show that the area of core eco-space in the study area accounts for 30% of the total area. These areas mainly consist of the core areas of regional river systems, wetlands, nature reserves, forest parks, and scenic spots and the endangered and protected zone of geological hazards. According to the spatial characteristics of ecological importance for different regions, this study proposes some zoning regulations and measures for environmental management.     

Scarcity-weighted global land and metal footprints

Resource scarcity poses an increasing threat to the supply security of modern economies. Some grand challenges ahead are the limits to agricultural expansion and the geologic scarcity of metals. To better understand the drivers behind land and metal depletion, footprint-type indicators are gaining importance. Such indicators, however, fail to differentiate between vastly different degrees of resource availability across regions. Using crop suitability areas and metal reserve base data, we calculate scarcity-weighted land and metal footprints for the major economies with the EXIOBASE global multi-regional input-output model. Scarcity-weighting causes a significant reordering of the global rankings of countries for both land and metal footprints. Land scarcity focuses mostly on cereals (∼54% from the total agricultural land used) and oil crops (∼15%), the former being notably affected by water scarcity issues in Asia and the Middle East. Metal scarcity focuses on copper ores (∼69%) and iron (∼11%), the former being a globally scarce metal impacting multiple economies. The large impact of scarcity-weighting suggests that, while non-weighted resource footprints are a valid proxy of resource use, these are not always aligned with further implications of resource depletion and supply security. In this sense, scarcity-weighting can offer an initial overview of those countries where analyses at finer scales may be more valuable. Our results also show that international trade is a major driver of land and metal depletion in some developing regions. This highlights the intersection of environmental justice and globalization, as the burden of resource depletion often falls into poorer regions which critically rely on exports.     

Determinants of Land Degradation and Fragmentation in Semiarid Vegetation at Landscape Scale

The objective of this paper was to investigate the sensitivity to degradation of semiarid plant communities in terms of plant cover and fragmentation, quantifying relationships between landscape characteristic (physical, socio-economical and historical) and vegetation degradation. The degradation of vegetation was measured as the degree of coverage of the two dominant vegetation types (i.e. tall arid brush and tall grass steppe), while fragmentation was measured as patch size and isolation. Data were obtained using GIS tools, and analyzed by logistic regression and linear multivariate regression. Results showed denser coverage at more elevated, gradual slopes that were not sea-oriented. Historical elements of the landscape had a significant effect on current natural vegetation. According to the fragmentation patterns, the vegetation is in fairly good condition (medium coverage had the largest patches but dense coverage was less isolated) but attention must be given to preserve vegetation, due to the relationships between fragmentation and human activities. Moreover, the protection plan under way in the area appeared to favour denser vegetation cover, while human activities had a measurable effect on vegetation degradation.