Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty

We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity hotspots: the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong. Comparable studies have largely not accounted for uncertainty, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions. We quantified the contribution of four sources of variation (choice of general circulation models, emission scenarios and species distribution modelling methods and variation in species distribution data) to uncertainty in forecasts and tested if our projections were robust to these uncertainties. Declines in the availability of suitable climate within the IBA network by 2100 were forecast as ‘extremely likely’ for 45% of species, whereas increases were projected for only 2%. Thus, we predict almost 24 times as many ‘losers’ as ‘winners’. However, for no species was suitable climate ‘extremely likely’ to be completely lost from the network. Considerable turnover (median = 43%, 95% CI = 35–69%) in species compositions of most IBAs were projected by 2100. Climatic conditions in 47% of IBAs were projected as ‘extremely likely’ to become suitable for fewer priority species. However, no IBA was forecast to become suitable for more species. Variation among General Circulation Models and Species Distribution Models contributed most to uncertainty among forecasts. This uncertainty precluded firm conclusions for 53% of species and IBAs because 95% confidence intervals included projections of no change. Considering this uncertainty, however, allows robust recommendations concerning the remaining species and IBAs. Overall, while the IBA network will continue to sustain bird conservation, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for. Thus, adaptive management of the network, including modified site conservation strategies and facilitating species' movement among sites, is critical to ensure effective future conservation.     

Is it God Speaking? Agency of Deities in the Western Himalaya

ABSTRACT

In many ethnographies, deities reflect social structures, represent power relations, or serve as a resource for individuals. However, believers usually do not doubt the existence of deities and their agency: that is, their ability to act and initiate change. The gap between these points of view narrows in the religious experiences in the Indian Himalayas. There, the local population, who communicate with local deities via mediums, face an epistemological problem: how to be certain that they are, indeed, talking with their gods. Furthermore, the believers are aware that they play a role in the decisions of the gods. These two aspects of the religious experience are expressed in the gradual transition of the gods from a Pahā?ī to a pan-Hindu identity, an indication of the way in which the agency of the gods is being challenged and is subject to negotiation by the locals.     

Quantification and characterization of vegetation and functional trait diversity of the riparian zones in protected forest of Kashmir Himalaya,India

Globally, riparian zones along river banks are widely recognized for their vital role in water regulation and conservation of biodiversity. Here, we specifically investigated the floristic and functional diversity of the vegetation of the riparian zones of protected forests in Kashmir Himalaya, India. A random sampling method was used for site selection while a transect method was used for data collection. Data obtained from the field was subjected to taxonomic and functional classification. Floristic analysis revealed a total of 78 species belonging to 68 genera in 40 families, suggesting an unequal distribution of species among families. Nine families contributed half of the species: Rosaceae was the dominant family with nine (12%) species followed by Asteraceae with eight species (10%), while 23 families were monotypic. In terms of functional trait diversity, herbaceous and perennial taxa dominated, and the biological spectrum showed a dominance of the therophytic life form, indicative of disturbed vegetation. The phenological spectrum revealed that the maximum flowering periods starts in March and extends into May, in which a total of 61% of the species were observed to flower. The leading leaf size spectra were mesophyll with 35%, followed by microphyll (31%). Most (64%) of the species had a simple leaf lamina type. The results of the present study serve as a means to evaluate best management practices, assess restoration and mitigation projects, prioritize riparian related resource management decisions, and establish aquatic life use standards.     

Pleistocene rapid uplift of the Himalayan frontal ranges recorded in the Kathmandu and Siwalik basins

Core-drilling project carried out in the southern margin of the Kathmandu Basin revealed that muddy debris flow deposits dammed up the Proto-Bagmati river to form the Paleo-Kathmandu Lake during the Jaramillo subchron from 1.07 to 0.97 Ma. Subsequent deposition of the alluvial fanglomerate, derived from the uplifting Mahabharat Range to the south, raised the dam deepening the lake-water. After 1 Ma, in the southern part of the basin, palaeo-current directions changed from southward to northward and deposition of gneissose and granitic detritus are replaced by meta-sediments derived from the Mahabharat Range.During the same time, at about 1 Ma, the boulder conglomerates were deposited on top of the Siwalik Group as piggy-back basins in front of an intra-basinal high, along the Main Dung Thrust in Nepal and NW India. Onset of movement of the Main Dung Thrust is dated back to 3 to 2.4 Ma [Mugnier, J.L., Huyge, P., Leturmy, P., Jouanne, F., 2003, Episodicity and rates of thrust-sheet motion in the Himalayas, Western Nepal. Am. Assoc. Petrol. Geol., Mem. 82, 1-24]. The Main Frontal Thrust is most active at present suggesting that imbricated structure of the Siwalik Group was formed by convergence of the Indian plate during the last 3 myr. The accretionary wedge of the Siwalik Group, stacked beneath the Main Boundary Thrust, might have started to jack up the frontal range of the Lesser Himalaya since 1 Ma.Coeval uplift and erosion of the frontal range of the Lesser Himalaya and the intra-basinal high in the Siwalik since 1 Ma are possible causes of an abrupt increase in both sedimentation rate and grain size of detrital quartz, and changes in composition of clay minerals, recorded in the sediments of the Bengal Deep Sea Fan at 0.9 Ma.     

Recent approach to Buchia biostratigraphy from the Tethyan Himalaya area, China

Recent collections from six sections in Lanongla area, Tethyan Himalaya allow the establishment of four buchia assemblages. In ascending order, they are Buchia-Buchia spitiensis, Buchia masquensis-Buchia rugasa, Buchia blanfordiana, Buchia piochii and Buchia subokensis assemblages. These Buchia assemblages first demonstrate that not only the Upper Jurassic strata but also the highest Buchia assemblage-Buchia subokensis, which appeared in Lower Cretaceous strata all over the world are present in Lanongla area. This first records the highest Buchia assemblage in Lanongla area. __________ Translated from Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2005, 41 (4) [译自: 北京大学学报( 自然科学版), 2005,41(4)]     

Phylogeny of spiny frogs Nanorana (Anura: Dicroglossidae) supports a Tibetan origin of a Himalayan species group

Recent advances in the understanding of the evolution of the Asian continent challenge the long‐held belief of a faunal immigration into the Himalaya. Spiny frogs of the genus Nanorana are a characteristic faunal group of the Himalaya–Tibet orogen (HTO). We examine the phylogeny of these frogs to explore alternative biogeographic scenarios for their origin in the Greater Himalaya, namely, immigration, South Tibetan origin, strict vicariance. We sequenced 150 Nanorana samples from 62 localities for three mitochondrial (1,524 bp) and three nuclear markers (2,043 bp) and complemented the data with sequence data available from GenBank. We reconstructed a gene tree, phylogenetic networks, and ancestral areas. Based on the nuDNA, we also generated a time‐calibrated species tree. The results revealed two major clades (Nanorana and Quasipaa), which originated in the Lower Miocene from eastern China and subsequently spread into the HTO (Nanorana). Five well‐supported subclades are found within Nanorana: from the East, Central, and Northwest Himalaya, the Tibetan Plateau, and the southeastern Plateau margin. The latter subclade represents the most basal group (subgenus Chaparana), the Plateau group (Nanorana) represents the sister clade to all species of the Greater Himalaya (Paa). We found no evidence for an east–west range expansion of Paa along the Himalaya, nor clear support for a strict vicariance model. Diversification in each of the three Himalayan subclades has probably occurred in distinct areas. Specimens from the NW Himalaya are placed basally relative to the highly diverse Central Himalayan group, while the lineage from the Tibetan Plateau is placed within a more terminal clade. Our data indicate a Tibetan origin of Himalayan Nanorana and support a previous hypothesis, which implies that a significant part of the Himalayan biodiversity results from primary diversification of the species groups in South Tibet before this part of the HTO was uplifted to its recent heights.     

Different responses of avian feeding guilds to spatial and environmental factors across an elevation gradient in the central Himalaya

Although elevational patterns of species richness have been well documented, how the drivers of richness gradients vary across ecological guilds has rarely been reported. Here, we examined the effects of spatial factors (area and mid‐domain effect; MDE) and environmental factors, including metrics of climate, productivity, and plant species richness on the richness of breeding birds across different ecological guilds defined by diet and foraging strategy. We surveyed 12 elevation bands at intervals of 300 m between 1,800 and 5,400 m a.s.l using line‐transect methods throughout the wet season in the central Himalaya, China. Multiple regression models and hierarchical partitioning were used to assess the relative importance of spatial and environmental factors on overall bird richness and guild richness (i.e., the richness of species within each guild). Our results showed that richness for all birds and most guilds displayed hump‐shaped elevational trends, which peaked at an elevation of 3,300–3,600 m, although richness of ground‐feeding birds peaked at a higher elevation band (4,200–4,500 m). The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)—an index of primary productivity—and habitat heterogeneity were important factors in explaining overall bird richness as well as that of insectivores and omnivores, with geometric constraints (i.e., the MDE) of secondary importance. Granivore richness was not related to primary production but rather to open habitats (granivores were negatively influenced by habitat heterogeneity), where seeds might be abundant. Our findings provide direct evidence that the richness–environment relationship is often guild‐specific. Taken together, our study highlights the importance of considering how the effects of environmental and spatial factors on patterns of species richness may differ across ecological guilds, potentially leading to a deeper understanding of elevational diversity gradients and their implications for biodiversity conservation.