Indicators of seabird reproductive performance demonstrate the impact of commercial fisheries on seabird populations in the North Sea

In a world of growing anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity, effective indicators need to be specific and sensitive to the pressures in the ecosystem concerned, yet be simple enough to be interpreted by non-experts and straightforward enough to facilitate routine monitoring. Globally, seabirds are under increasing pressure as a result of anthropogenic activities and environmental variation. Traditionally, seabird indicators have been based on abundance at breeding colonies. However, as many species do not reach sexual maturity for several years, and may not attend the colony over this time period, such indicators may fail to capture the ecological complexity of the system concerned.We constructed two indicators of the state of nine seabird species that breed along the UK coast of the North Sea: (i) abundance of seabirds at breeding colonies, and (ii) probability of seabird breeding failure. The indicators were significantly and strongly correlated with each other for eight out of nine species, but the abundance indicator typically lagged the indicator on seabird breeding failure by two to three years. We then considered a third indicator which compared kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) breeding success to the levels expected given the underlying environmental conditions; changes in the abundance indicator also lagged this by three years. We investigate how sensitive each of these indicators was to the impacts of fishing. We found that the species which had seen the greatest increases in breeding failure rate over the study period were those species which were most sensitive to fisheries pressure.By focussing on demographic parameters, and correcting for the underlying environmental conditions, we can detect potentially important population level changes at an earlier stage than by focussing on abundance alone. These indicators are able to more accurately capture the complexity of the ecosystem concerned and can be readily interpreted by policy-makers.     

The genetic structure of a tribal population,the Yanomama Indians. XII. Biodemographic studies

The Yanomama Indians of Southern Vanezuela and Northern Brazil are one of the largest, relatively unacculturated tribes of the tropical rain forest. Over a period of eight years data have been collected from a considerable portion of their territory on estimated age, sex ratio, fertility rates (as determined by physical examination and urine tests), and infant death rates. Although it has been impossible to collect direct data on infanticide, this subject can be approached indirectly through distortions of the sex ratio and anecdotal information. Some historical data are also available as a basis for estimating tribal expansion in the past 100 years. With this material it has been possible to construct Life Tables for the Yanomama, and to explore the results of various perturbations of the input parameters. Data are also presented on patterns of mating and reproduction: number of spouses, mean and variance in number of surviving children, frequency of “extra-marital conceptions” based on the results of extensive blood group typings, and consanguinity rates as determined by observation and computer simulation. Although we do not present the Yanomama as typical, these data are seen as providing a basis for more realistic population models than have existed in the past. In addition, the data provide a basis for relatively precise estimates of such demographic measures as Fisher's Reproductive Value, Crow's Index of Total Selection, and Weiss' Index of Growth Regulation.     

Human biology in Tlaxcala, Mexico: demography

A demographic survey was conducted as part of an ongoing population study of large Mestizo and Indian communities in Tlaxcala, Mexico. Comparative data on population structure and movement, mate selection, age at marriage, differential fertility, and mortality were collected through the administration of a standardized demographic proforma, and then cross-tabulated by computer analysis. The resulting differences between the Indian and Mestizo populations are interpreted in terms of the relative importance of hybridization, natural selection, and genetic drift. Sizeable variance in achieved reproduction and the high neonatal mortality suggest the operation of natural selection in these two populations. Observed patterns of population movement and mate selection indicate that the Mestizo population of the city of Tlaxcala is highly hybridized, in contrast to the endogamous Indian community of San Pablo del Monte.     

Demographic changes and the development of competition in a native Australian eucalypt forest invaded by exotic pines

Data from the second half of a 14-year study of a eucalypt dry sclerophyll forest invaded by Pinus radiata D. Don shows further progress in the development of a mixed eucalypt-pine stand. Earlier (Chilvers and Burdon 1983) it was clear that pines invading from an adjacent commercial plantation were starting to contribute their own progeny to the mixed stand. Initially the recruitment of established pines (> 1 m high) from these seedlings was very slow. However, since 1984, increasing numbers of seedlings have survived beyond their first year, suggesting the possibility of another wave of successful establishment in the near future. The established fraction of the pine population continued to grow rapidly and incurred no mortality. Many of these plants have now emerged through the top of the eucalypt canopy. In contrast, both juvenile and adult eucalypt numbers continued to decline. Despite these demographic and visual changes, comparative analysis of the growth of established pines over two consecutive 7-year periods (1974–1981; 1981–1988) showed that competition between neighbouring plants, especially pines, is beginning to affect individual growth rates. Growth rates of pines having other pines as nearest neighbours declined 40% between 1974–1981 and 1981–1988, while that of pines with eucalypts as nearest neighbours fell by 28%. In pine-pine nearest neighbour (NN) pairs, growth rates were significantly affected by the size (diameter) of the nearest neighbour. In pine-eucalypt NN pairs growth rates of the pines were not affected by the size of the eucalypt, but these were significantly negatively correlated with the inverse of the distance to the eucalypt. More broad-based assessment of 43 pines showed a significant relationship between their growth rates and the summed competitive effect of other pines within a 5-m radius. No such relationship was found between growth rate and the summed competitive effect of eucalypts in the 5-m zone.     

Demography in stochastic environments. I. Exact distributions of age structure

The steady state distribution of age structure is studied for populations with two age classes and stochastic vital rates. For a serially uncorrelated dichotomic vital rate the distribution of age structure is found analytically to be a singular steplike function; outside a specific region of vital rate values the singular function crosses a threshold to a smooth function. For a vital rate following a correlated two state Markov process the joint distributions of age structure and environment are found analytically to be singular steplike functions; again a threshold marks a transition to a smooth function. For fecundities which are serially uncorrelated but continuously distributed the age structure distribution is obtained as a smooth analytic function for all parameter values. These explicit results have applications to studies of age structure and average growth rate.     

Spatio‐temporal variation in European starling reproductive success at multiple small spatial scales

Understanding population dynamics requires spatio‐temporal variation in demography to be measured across appropriate spatial and temporal scales. However, the most appropriate spatial scale(s) may not be obvious, few datasets cover sufficient time periods, and key demographic rates are often incompletely measured. Consequently, it is often assumed that demography will be spatially homogeneous within populations that lack obvious subdivision. Here, we quantify small‐scale spatial and temporal variation in a key demographic rate, reproductive success (RS), within an apparently contiguous population of European starlings. We used hierarchical cluster analysis to define spatial clusters of nest sites at multiple small spatial scales and long‐term data to test the hypothesis that small‐scale spatio‐temporal variation in RS occurred. RS was measured as the number of chicks alive ca. 12 days posthatch either per first brood or per nest site per breeding season (thereby incorporating multiple breeding attempts). First brood RS varied substantially among spatial clusters and years. Furthermore, the pattern of spatial variation was stable across years; some nest clusters consistently produced more chicks than others. Total seasonal RS also varied substantially among spatial clusters and years. However, the magnitude of variation was much larger and the pattern of spatial variation was no longer temporally consistent. Furthermore, the estimated magnitude of spatial variation in RS was greater at smaller spatial scales. We thereby demonstrate substantial spatial, temporal, and spatio‐temporal variation in RS occurring at very small spatial scales. We show that the estimated magnitude of this variation depended on spatial scale and that spatio‐temporal variation would not have been detected if season‐long RS had not been measured. Such small‐scale spatio‐temporal variation should be incorporated into empirical and theoretical treatments of population dynamics.     

Long‐term tree fern dynamics linked to disturbance and shade tolerance

Question: Do New Zealand tree ferns have recognizable shade tolerance niches? Location: Lowland temperate rain forest of New Zealand (41°20′S, 174°58′E). Methods: Growth, death and recruitment of five tree fern species were estimated from a 38‐year record of stem heights, collected within a 2.25‐ha block of forest, and electron transport rates (ETR) of photosystem II of fronds were measured. Results: Two species of Cyathea were comparatively common (603 and 351 stems in total) and two were comparatively rare (155 and 17 stems in total) on the site. The common species had lower rates of growth, recruitment and mortality than the rare species, had skewed age distributions typical of shade‐tolerant species and were probably recruited soon after a catastrophic earthquake in 1855. The two rare species were failing to recruit under closed forests; their age distributions indicated that all had regenerated long after the earthquake. ETR were higher for faster‐growing than for the shade‐tolerant species. A tree fern that regenerates vegetatively from aerial buds, Dicksonia squarrosa, was common on the site (361 stems in total). Its age distribution suggested it was relatively shade tolerant, but its mortality and recruitment rates were much higher than those of the two shade‐tolerating Cyathea species, suggesting that this multi‐stemmed species functions differently from the monopodial Cyathea species. Conclusions: New Zealand Cyathea tree ferns occupy distinct niches along a shade tolerance spectrum and their relative abundances are strongly influenced by disturbance history. The study provides evidence that tree fern species differ strongly in their responses to canopy disturbance and are not ecologically equivalent.     

The restoration of gravelly floodplain vegetation and endemic plants to riparian habitat in a Japanese river

Aster kantoensis, an endangered and monocarpic perennial plant species, is endemic to the gravelly floodplain of a few rapid flowing rivers in eastern central Japan. In recent years, an extreme declining trend in the species has been accelerated due to the strong negative influence by invasion of an alien grass, Eragrostis curvula. A restoration project aimed at recovering the original condition of the floodplain in the Kinu River, central Japan, has been started. To determine the possibility of successful restoration as well as its habitat preferences, I carried out some seed sowing experiments. In April 2003, seeds collected from a seminatural habitat were sown (54,000 seeds) in the restoration site (1.2 ha), where flood frequency, substrate condition, and control of alien plants are combined to form different habitat conditions. Seedling survival, flowery, and seed production were subsequently monitored from 2003 to 2005. Seed cohorts completed their life cycles within 3 years, and mean fitness of 927 was achieved. Performance of A. kantoensis seedlings was generally greater for environmental variables of sandy-type substrate and/or with control of alien plants. In addition, there were significant negative correlations between percentage survival, percentage flowery, and seed production with vegetation cover and coverage of E. curvula. The results confirm that, if safe sites with sparse vegetation exist, irrespective of their substrate condition, as well as seed sources of river endemics in natural habitats, restoration of riparian vegetation including river endemics is possible. The aggressive alien species E. curvula should be taken into consideration.     

Assessing the residual effects of Carpobrotus edulis invasion, implications for restoration

We examined whether the residual effects on soil caused by the invasion of Carpobrotus edulis, common iceplant, would inhibit the reestablishment of a native plant species. Carpobrotus edulis interacts both directly by suppressing the growth and establishment of other plants and indirectly by altering soil chemistry. We tested whether the residual effects of C. edulis resulted in lowered germination, survival, growth, and reproduction of Gilia millefoliata, a rare dune annual. We compared G. millefoliata planted in plots previously occupied by C. edulis to G. millefoliata planted in plots that previously had native vegetation. Each plot received three treatments: seed, transplant, and unplanted, and were censused every three weeks until senescence. Carpobrotus edulis had strong negative effects on the germination, survival, growth, and reproduction of G. millefoliata. C. edulis lowers soil pH and increases organic content due to the recalcitrance of tissue to decomposition, which may have evolved as a mechanism to facilitate recolonization and invasion.     

Disentangling complex fine‐scale ecological patterns by path modelling using GLMM and GIS

Question: How can statistical modelling tools (GLMM) and GIS be used as an aid in understanding complex ecological patterns? This general question was approached by using bryophyte demography data as an example. More specifically, we asked what is the contribution of terrain shape to explaining the performance and fate of plant individuals, controlling for all other known relationships? Location: Norway. Methods: Information on demography was obtained for 140 populations of the perennial clonal bryophyte Hylocomium splendens in Norway spruce forests during an 11‐year period (1992‐2002). Performance (size and branching pattern) was recorded for mature segments and fate was recorded for growing points. Positions of each of the more than 30 000 recorded bryophyte ramets were coupled with (micro‐) topographic characteristics (slope and convexity) derived from fine‐scale digital elevation models in a GIS framework. Carefully planned sequences of generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) were performed to test predictions from a conceptual path model. Results: We demonstrate strong dependence of size on branching, fate and on vertical position in the bryophyte carpet, and an effect of vertical position on branching pattern. Micro‐topography contributed to explaining plant performance by four different mechanisms: (1) a direct effect of slope on the segment's vertical position in the carpet; (2‐3) direct effects of both slope and convexity on fates of individuals via controls on risk of burial; and (4) an indirect effect of convexity on branching pattern via a direct effect on size. No indication of a direct effect of terrain on branching was found. Conclusions: Our study exemplifies the usefulness of GLMM for disentangling complex ecological relationships. Specifically, we recognise micro‐topography as a potentially important factor for plant demography in general and for performance and fate of individuals in particular.