Nearest Neighbor Classification Rule for Mixtures of Discrete and Continuous Random Variables

In this paper very simple nonparametric classification rule for mixtures of discrete and continuous random variables is described. It is based on the method of nearest neighbor proposed by Cover and Hart (1967). The bounds on the limit of the nearest neighbor rule risks are given. Both lower and upper bound depend on the Bayes risk and the loss function. Finally the method is compared with other existing methods on some practical data set.     

Structural Decomposition Analysis of Raw Material Consumption

The aim of this article is to quantify the drivers for the changes in raw material consumption (domestic material consumption expressed in the form of all materials extracted and used in the production phase) in terms of technology, which refers to the concept of sustainable production; the product structure of final demand, which refers to the concept of sustainable consumption; and the volume of final demand, which is related to economic growth. We also aim to determine to what extent the technological development and a shift in product structure of the final demand compensate for the growth in final consumption volume. Therefore, we apply structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to the change in raw material consumption (RMC) of the Czech Republic between 2000 and 2007. To present the study in a broader context, we also show other material flow indicators for the Czech Republic for 2000 and 2007. Our findings of SDA show that final demand structure has a very limited effect on the change in material flows. The rapid change in final demand volume was not compensated for crude oil, metal ores, construction materials, food crops, and timber. For the material category of non‐iron metal ores, even the change in technology contributes to an increase in material flows. The largest relative increases are reported for non‐iron metal ores (38%) and construction materials (30%). The main changes in material flows related to the Czech Republic are driven by exports and enabled by imports, the main source of these increased material flows. This emphasizes the increasing role of international trade.     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

The unpredictability of favourability: condition assessment and protected areas in England

The probability that protected areas will deliver their potential for maintaining or enhancing biodiversity is likely to be maximised if they are appropriately and effectively managed. As a result, governments and conservation agencies are devoting much attention to the management of protected areas. In the U.K., the demand for performance accountability has resulted in Public Service Agreements (PSA) that set out targets for government departments to deliver results in return for investments being made. One such target for England is to ensure that all nationally important wildlife sites are in favourable condition by 2010. Here, we tested the hypothesis, of potential strategic importance, that the ecological condition of these sites is predictable from relationships with a range of physical, environmental and demographic variables. We used binary logistic regression to investigate these relationships, using the results of English Nature’s 1997–2003 condition assessment exercise. Generally, sites in unfavourable condition tend to be larger in area, located at higher elevations, but with higher human population density and are more spatially isolated from units of the same habitat. However, despite the range of different parameters included in our models, the extent to which the condition of any given site could be predicted was low. Our results have implications for the delivery of PSA targets, funding allocation, and the location of new protected areas.     

In Pursuit of Safety: One-Hundred Years of Toxicological Risk Assessment

The publication in 1962 of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring marks the mid-point in a century that saw, in its first half, the emergence of public health concerns related to human exposures to chemicals, and, in its second half, the emergence of public policies to deal with those concerns. Those policies made it imperative that the scientific community come to grips with the problem of identifying exposure levels not likely to cause harm. This problem was not significantly discussed within the scientific community until the 1950s, and well-described methods for practical solutions to it did not appear until the 1970s. An important report from the National Academy of Sciences, published in 1983 (Risk Assessment in the Federal Government), provided an analysis of these emerging methods, and recommended a useful framework for the assessment and management of risk. This framework remains central to public health and regulatory decision-making. A high-level perspective is offered on events leading to and following the 1983 report. The article describes early thinking about chemical toxicity and the scientific path that thinking followed through the 20th century, and to the present.     

Analysis of Multiply Matched Retrospective Studies When Risk Factor Under Study is Discrete,With Two or More Levels

The odds ratio is known to closely approximate the relative risk when the disease is rare. Logistic regression models are often used to estimate such odds ratios, but here a different model is used which avoids the assumptions implicit in logistic modelling; it also has the advantage of providing a test of homogeneity for odds rat os in situations where the logistic model cannot.     

城市景观生态风险评估框架与实践——以北京天坛地区为例

当前，城市景观生态风险研究缺少科学合理、方便实用的评估框架。作者基于景观生态风险评估基本范式，明确了城市景观生态服务价值的测算方法，分析了引起生态损害的自然因素和人类活动因素，形成了城市景观生态风险评估的技术框架和参数体系；继而以北京天坛地区为研究区，开展了典型城市景观生态风险的定量评估。结果表明：（1）天坛地区景观生态价值总量约为2.41亿元。区域的历史文化价值最高，教育和美学景观价值紧随其后。（2）城市景观生态受损概率呈现"北高南低"的空间分布格局。生态受损概率的高值区面积占整个区域总面积的22.2%，主要分布在珠市口、磁器口和崇文门附近区域。（3）城市景观生态风险呈现"北低南高"的空间分布格局。高风险区主要分布在天坛公园内的文物建筑周边。本研究提供了一个可参考的城市景观生态风险评估应用框架，对生态风险评估中的不确定性进行了讨论，研究针对天坛案例区的具体结论有助于城市管理者避免潜在的风险。     

The International Atomic Energy Agency action plan on radiation protection of patients and staff in interventional procedures: Achieving change in practice

IntroductionThe International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) organized the 3rd international conference on radiation protection (RP) of patients in December 2017. This paper presents the conclusions on the interventional procedures (IP) session.Material and methodsThe IAEA conference was conducted as a series of plenary sessions followed by various thematic sessions. “Radiation protection of patients and staff in interventional procedures” session keynote speakers presented information on: 1) Risk management of skin injuries, 2) Occupational radiation risks and 3) RP for paediatric patients. Then, a summary of the session-related papers was presented by a rapporteur, followed by an open question-and-answer discussion.ResultsSixty-seven percent (67%) of papers came from Europe. Forty-four percent (44%) were patient studies, 44% were occupational and 12% were combined studies. Occupational studies were mostly on eye lens dosimetry. The rest were on scattered radiation measurements and dose tracking. The majority of patient studies related to patient exposure with only one study on paediatric patients. Automatic patient dose reporting is considered as a first step for dose optimization. Despite efforts, paediatric IP radiation dose data are still scarce. The keynote speakers outlined recent achievements but also challenges in the field. Forecasting technology, task-specific targeted education from educators familiar with the clinical situation, more accurate estimation of lens doses and improved identification of high-risk professional groups are some of the areas they focused on.ConclusionsManufacturers play an important role in making patients safer. Low dose technologies are still expensive and manufacturers should make these affordable in less resourced countries. Automatic patient dose reporting and real-time skin dose map are important for dose optimization. Clinical audit and better QA processes together with more studies on the impact of lens opacities in clinical practice and on paediatric patients are needed.     

The significance of mycotoxins in the framework of assessing workplace related risks

Mycotoxins are fungal metabolite which may in some cases exhibit a high health hazard potential. Mycotoxins can show carcinogenic, mutagenic, toxic, teratogenic or immunotoxic effects. Mycotoxin exposure in the workplace may occur through inhalation and skin contact,e.g. during occupational handling of organic matter such as livestock feed, food products, or waste. Various studies suggest that both acute and chronic effects can occur, depending at least on the exposure level. The magnitude of the potential health risks associated with a respiratory or dermal intake of mycotoxins has largely remained unclear to date. However, according to the directive 2000/54/EC on biological agents and the corresponding German Biological Agents Ordinance, employers are also required to consider the potential hazards posed by toxic effects of biological agents when assessing workplace risks. The aim of this article, therefore, is to present some basis information that should facilitate an evaluation of the significance of mycotoxins in the context of assessing workplace risks. It also provides suggestions for occupational health and safety measures.