城市景观生态风险评估框架与实践——以北京天坛地区为例

当前,城市景观生态风险研究缺少科学合理、方便实用的评估框架。作者基于景观生态风险评估基本范式,明确了城市景观生态服务价值的测算方法,分析了引起生态损害的自然因素和人类活动因素,形成了城市景观生态风险评估的技术框架和参数体系;继而以北京天坛地区为研究区,开展了典型城市景观生态风险的定量评估。结果表明：（1）天坛地区景观生态价值总量约为2.41亿元。区域的历史文化价值最高,教育和美学景观价值紧随其后。（2）城市景观生态受损概率呈现"北高南低"的空间分布格局。生态受损概率的高值区面积占整个区域总面积的22.2%,主要分布在珠市口、磁器口和崇文门附近区域。（3）城市景观生态风险呈现"北低南高"的空间分布格局。高风险区主要分布在天坛公园内的文物建筑周边。本研究提供了一个可参考的城市景观生态风险评估应用框架,对生态风险评估中的不确定性进行了讨论,研究针对天坛案例区的具体结论有助于城市管理者避免潜在的风险。

Framework and practice of urban landscape ecological risk assessment: a case study of the Tiantan region in Beijing

Currently, the urban landscape ecological risk assessment research lacks a reasonable and reliable evaluation framework. Based on the paradigm of landscape ecological risk assessment, the authors clarified the calculation method of urban landscape ecological service value, analyzed the natural and artificial factors that cause ecological damage, and formed the technical framework and parameter system of urban landscape ecological risk assessment. The Tiantan Park (Heaven Temple) region of Beijing was selected as a case study region and a quantitative assessment was carried out. The results show that (1) the total landscape ecological value of the Tiantan region is about 241 million yuan. The history & culture value is the highest, followed by the education and aesthetic landscape values. (2) The probability of urban landscape ecological damage shows a spatial distribution pattern that the high-value region lies in the north while the low-value region in the south. The high probability area accounts for 22.2% of the total area, which is mainly distributed near Zhushikou, Ciqikou, and Chongwenmen. (3) The urban landscape ecological risk presents a spatial distribution pattern that the low-value region lies in the north and the high-value region in the south. The high ecological risk region is mainly distributed around the cultural relic buildings in Tiantan Park. This study provides a reference application framework for urban landscape ecological risk assessment, and discusses the main uncertainties in assessment research. The specific conclusions about the Tiantan case area may help city managers avoid potential risks.