Estimation of the stage-specific survival rate in the insect population with overlapping stages

An application ofHokyo andKiritani 's method (1967) was attempted to estimate the stage specific survival rates of the population with overlapping stages. This method can be written as follows assuming a constant daily survival rate (K) throughout the life: where, and F refer respectively to the total incidence of ith instar nymphs and that of individuals after ith instar inclusive, and α_i refers to the developmental period of ith instar. Application of this model to caged and natural populations of the southern green stink bug, Nezara viridula, was made to test its validity. The estimates of the initial number of successive stages obtained from the present method were compared with those fromRichards andWaloff 's method (1954) for the caged populations of 1st, 2nd and 3rd generations. The superiority of the present method to theRichards andWaloff 's in estimating adult numbers was shown in all the generations examined. When different daily survival rates are involved in the course of population decrease, application of the revised method proposed byHokyo andKiritani (1967), gives much reliable estimate as compared with one before correction. The present method is useful in constructing life table of such species as scale insects which complete their life cycle within a defined space, but their successive stages overlap considerably.     

Incidence,trends, and survival of oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer in Aotearoa New Zealand, 2006–2020

BackgroundAn increasing trend of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) has been reported in several countries with different demographic characteristics, and often attributed to increases in human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The survival of patients with OPC has steadily improved, especially for those with positive HPV status. This study assessed the incidence, trends, and survival of OPC in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) by age at diagnosis, sex and ethnicity.MethodsThe study included all 2109 patients resident in NZ with a primary diagnosis of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma from 2006 to 2020, identified from the National Cancer Registry. We assessed age-standardised incidence rate (ASR), annual percent change (APC) and overall and relative survival rates.ResultsThe average annual incidence of OPC was 2.2 per 100,000 population. There was a steady increase of 4.9% per year over 15 years. Although the incidence rates were higher in males over the study period, the overall rate of increase was similar in males (4.9%) and in females (4.3%). The incidence was highest in the 50–69-year group (8.8/100,000 population). This age group had an incidence that increased by 7.5% per year to 2018, and then declined. The main increase in rates was seen between the birth cohort of 1946–50 and that of 1956–60. The increase in incidence was seen in Māori and Pākehā/European populations, but no increase was seen in Pacific or Asian populations. The 5-year overall relative survival rate improved from 69% in 2006‐13 to 78% in 2014–20. Survival rates were lower in older patients, females, and Māori patients.ConclusionThis study confirmed a substantial increase in OPC incidence in NZ, with some evidence to suggest a recent slowing in this increase. Māori and Pākehā/European had the highest incidence, while Pacific and Asian populations showed the lowest rates and no increase over the study period. Survival rates have improved over time, but remained lower in some demographic groups.     

原发性肾病综合征合并血栓栓塞的临床研究

摘要 目的：肺栓塞及下肢深静脉血栓是影响肾病综合征(Nephrotic Syndrome,NS)预后的重要因素,但在其发生率以及治疗方面仍存在争议。本文将通过回顾性的病例研究对NS患者中血栓栓塞事件的发生率、危险因素以及是否需要早期干预等问题进行探讨。方法：收集上海交通大学医学院附属新华医院肾内科2014年1-12月诊断为原发性NS患者,并同时收集患者基本临床信息,血栓检查结果以及NS相关血液及尿液检查结果等在内的临床资料,采用多种统计方法分析血栓发生率及其危险因素,并进一步讨论NS患者的预防性抗凝措施。结果：NS患者下肢静脉血栓或肺栓塞的发生率均为15.4%,两种血栓同时发生的概率为9.6%。NS患者血栓事件的发生率与D-二聚体、血浆白蛋白、病程、病理类型呈明显相关,且具有统计学意义。结论：NS患者血栓栓塞的发生率与D-二聚体、血浆白蛋白、病程、病理类型呈显著相关,膜性肾病患者血栓栓塞发生率最高。如NS患者合并高危因素,建议定期筛查,综合评估后预防性抗凝。     

石家庄地区大肠息肉流行病学特征调查及影响因素分析

摘要 目的：调查分析石家庄地区大肠息肉流行病学特征及发病影响因素。方法：选取2015年1月~2020年1月期间来我院进行结肠镜检查的石家庄地区人群2630例作为调查研究对象,检查期间发放大肠息肉调查问卷,对研究对象的大肠息肉检出情况、流行病学特征进行统计分析,并根据人群的大肠息肉检测结果分为息肉组和对照组,对两组的临床资料进行统计对比,采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析大肠息肉发生的影响因素。结果：共回收2611份有效问卷,有效率为99.28%,其中大肠息肉患者共有300例,大肠息肉发生率为11.49%。经流行病学调查显示,300例大肠息肉患者中以男性居多,年龄以＞60岁为主,息肉高发部位主要为直肠和乙状结肠,病理类型主要为腺瘤型,息肉大小以≤5 cm为主。单因素分析显示,息肉组和对照组在年龄、性别、体质量指数(BMI)、吸烟史、高脂血症病史、高脂饮食方面对比有显著性差异(P<0.05)。经多因素分析显示,年龄＞60岁、男性、BMI≥25 kg/m²、吸烟史、高脂血症病史、高脂饮食均为大肠息肉发生的危险因素(P<0.05)。结论：石家庄地区大肠息肉具有较高的发病率,其流行病学与患者性别、年龄、息肉部位、病理类型及息肉大小相关。     

Recent changes in endometrial cancer trends among menopausal-age US women

BackgroundChanges in endometrial cancer incidence rates after the precipitous decline in menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use in 2002 have not been evaluated.MethodsUsing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program from 1992 to 2009 (SEER 13), we identified 63 428 incident endometrial cancer cases among women ages 20–74. We compared annual percent change (APC) in endometrial cancer incidence rates from 1992 to 2002 to rates from 2003 to 2009.ResultsIn contrast to the constant endometrial cancer rate pattern observed from 1992 to 2002 (APC 0.0%), rates increased after 2002 in women 50–74 years old (2.5%; P_{APC comparison} < 0.01). Endometrial cancer incidence increased over the entire time period among women ages 20–49 (1992–2002: 1.1%; 2003–2009: 2.1%; P_{APC comparison} = 0.21). Post-2002 increases in incidence among women ages 50–74 were specific to Type I endometrial tumors (1992–2002: ?0.6%; 2003–2009: 1.6%; P_{APC comparison} < 0.01).DiscussionThe increase in endometrial cancer incidence rates after 2002 may be related to the widespread decrease in estrogen plus progestin MHT use, which has been reported to lower endometrial cancer risk in overweight and obese women.     

Cancer incidence and mortality in people aged less than 75 years: Changes in Australia over the period 1987–2007

BackgroundAustralia has one of the highest rates of cancer incidence worldwide and, despite improving survival, cancer continues to be a major public health problem. Our aim was to provide simple summary measures of changes in cancer mortality and incidence in Australia so that progress and areas for improvement in cancer control can be identified.MethodsWe used national data on cancer deaths and newly registered cancer cases and compared expected and observed numbers of deaths and cases diagnosed in 2007. The expected numbers were obtained by applying 1987 age–sex specific rates (average of 1986–1988) directly to the 2007 population. The observed numbers of deaths and incident cases were calculated for 2007 (average of 2006–2008). We limited the analyses to people aged less than 75 years.ResultsThere was a 28% fall in cancer mortality (7827 fewer deaths in 2007 vs. 1987) and a 21% increase in new cancer diagnoses (13,012 more diagnosed cases in 2007). The greatest reductions in deaths were for cancers of the lung in males (?2259), bowel (?1797), breast (?773) and stomach (?577). Other notable falls were for cancers of the prostate (?295), cervix (?242) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (?240). Only small or no changes occurred in mortality for cancers of the lung (female only), pancreas, brain and related, oesophagus and thyroid, with an increase in liver cancer (267). Cancer types that showed the greatest increase in incident cases were cancers of the prostate (10,245), breast (2736), other cancers (1353), melanoma (1138) and thyroid (1107), while falls were seen for cancers of the lung (?1705), bladder (?1110) and unknown primary (?904).ConclusionsThe reduction in mortality indicates that prevention strategies, improvements in cancer treatment, and screening programmes have made significant contributions to cancer control in Australia since 1987. The rise in incidence is partly due to diagnoses being brought forward by technological improvements and increased coverage of screening and early diagnostic testing.     

Should Flanders consider lowering its target age for colorectal cancer screening to 45–49?

IntroductionColorectal cancer (CRC) screening generally starts screening by the age of 50 based on guidelines. Lately however, a U.S. guideline recommended to start CRC screening from age 45 and, very recently, two studies were published that addressed young-onset in Europe (in part) (Vuik et al., 2019; Araghi et al., 2019).Materials and MethodsFlemish CRC incidence and mortality data contextualise trend results for age groups under 50 and what the implications could be for practice.ResultsCRC incidence rates showed considerable variability over a 12-year period without a clear increase in disease burden for the age group 45–49 in Flanders. In several age groups under 39 an increasing incidence trend was visible for both genders. Data was analysed in a period where no CRC screening was present in Flanders.DiscussionDecreasing the target age for the Flemish CRC screening does not seem to be straightforward and primary prevention should be considered more prominently.     

Rational targeting of population groups and residential areas for colorectal cancer screening

BackgroundSociodemographic and spatial disparities in incidence and mortality burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) are important to consider in the implementation of population screening, in order to achieve expected benefit and not increase health inequities. Analytic methods should be adapted to provide rational support for targeted interventions.MethodsCRC incidence rates by tumor stage (I-IV) and location (colon vs. rectum) were analyzed for the time period 2008–2016 within a screening-relevant age interval of 55–74 years for the population of South and West Sweden, where screening is planned for. The study population was stratified by sex, country of birth, educational level (for Swedish-born citizens) and residential area. We also estimated disparities in excess mortality from CRC across groups of patients accordant to relevant population groups.ResultsThe analyses were based on 8961 patients with a first CRC diagnosis. There were marked socioeconomic gradients in the stage II-IV CRC incidence rates among Swedish-born men and women. Compared to men with high educational level, the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of stage II, III, and IV CRC in men with low educational level were 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.18, 1.62), 1.09 (0.95, 1.26), and 1.18 (1.02, 1.37), respectively. In women, the corresponding figures were 1.26 (1.06, 1.51), 1.19 (1.01, 1.39), and 1.45 (1.20, 1.80). The groups of patients with low educational level showed relatively high excess mortality burdens from CRC.ConclusionsOur analytic approach provided rational support for targeted intervention when implementing CRC screening, aiming at optimizing participation in groups with low educational level.     

Bone sarcoma incidence in the Netherlands

AimsChondrosarcoma, osteosarcoma and Ewing sarcoma form the majority of malignant primary tumours of bone. High-grade bone sarcomas require intensive treatment due to their rapid and invasive growth pattern and metastasising capabilities. This nationwide study covers overall incidence, treatment and survival patterns of bone sarcomas in a 15-year period (2000–2014) in the total population of the Netherlands.Patients and methodsData for this study were derived from the Netherlands Cancer Registry, which receives primary notification from the national pathology database. Classification and categorisation was based on the ICD-O-3 classification and the WHO classification 2013 applied according to our clinicopathological expertise. Overall incidence over the 15-year-period was calculated as a rate per 100,000 person-years (using the European Standardised Rate, ESR). Survival was analysed with Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression.ResultsIncidence for high-grade chondrosarcoma (n = 429) was estimated at 0.15 per 100,000 ESR, and 5-year overall survival at 65.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 61.0%–70.4%). Incidence for high-grade central osteosarcoma (n = 605) was estimated at 0.25 per 100,000 ESR and 5-year survival at 53.9% (95%CI: 49.7%–58.0%). Ewing sarcoma incidence (n = 334) was estimated at 0.15 per 100,000 ESR and 5-year survival at 59.3% (95%CI: 53.5%–64.6%). For high-grade central osteosarcoma, treatment at a bone tumour centre was associated with better survival (HR 0.593).ConclusionsThis study provides comprehensive incidence estimates for all the main primary bone sarcomas over a 15-year time period in a Northern European country with little migration. Centralisation of bone sarcoma care improves the clinical outcome in osteosarcoma.