Trait‐divergence assembly rules have been demonstrated: Limiting similarity lives! A reply to Grime

The recent Forum contribution by Grime (2006) contrasts the MacArthur/Diamond assembly‐rule approach to studying plant communities with the study of environmental trait gradients. Both are valid and useful. In doing so, Grime declares that the assembly rules model, in which negative interactions between plants act with limiting similarity to cause local trait divergence, is “not supported by empirical study of plant communities”. This is, he says, the agony of community ecology. I show that there is now abundant evidence for assembly rules, and no agony.     

Structural Decomposition Analysis of Raw Material Consumption

The aim of this article is to quantify the drivers for the changes in raw material consumption (domestic material consumption expressed in the form of all materials extracted and used in the production phase) in terms of technology, which refers to the concept of sustainable production; the product structure of final demand, which refers to the concept of sustainable consumption; and the volume of final demand, which is related to economic growth. We also aim to determine to what extent the technological development and a shift in product structure of the final demand compensate for the growth in final consumption volume. Therefore, we apply structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to the change in raw material consumption (RMC) of the Czech Republic between 2000 and 2007. To present the study in a broader context, we also show other material flow indicators for the Czech Republic for 2000 and 2007. Our findings of SDA show that final demand structure has a very limited effect on the change in material flows. The rapid change in final demand volume was not compensated for crude oil, metal ores, construction materials, food crops, and timber. For the material category of non‐iron metal ores, even the change in technology contributes to an increase in material flows. The largest relative increases are reported for non‐iron metal ores (38%) and construction materials (30%). The main changes in material flows related to the Czech Republic are driven by exports and enabled by imports, the main source of these increased material flows. This emphasizes the increasing role of international trade.     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

The unpredictability of favourability: condition assessment and protected areas in England

The probability that protected areas will deliver their potential for maintaining or enhancing biodiversity is likely to be maximised if they are appropriately and effectively managed. As a result, governments and conservation agencies are devoting much attention to the management of protected areas. In the U.K., the demand for performance accountability has resulted in Public Service Agreements (PSA) that set out targets for government departments to deliver results in return for investments being made. One such target for England is to ensure that all nationally important wildlife sites are in favourable condition by 2010. Here, we tested the hypothesis, of potential strategic importance, that the ecological condition of these sites is predictable from relationships with a range of physical, environmental and demographic variables. We used binary logistic regression to investigate these relationships, using the results of English Nature’s 1997–2003 condition assessment exercise. Generally, sites in unfavourable condition tend to be larger in area, located at higher elevations, but with higher human population density and are more spatially isolated from units of the same habitat. However, despite the range of different parameters included in our models, the extent to which the condition of any given site could be predicted was low. Our results have implications for the delivery of PSA targets, funding allocation, and the location of new protected areas.     

In Pursuit of Safety: One-Hundred Years of Toxicological Risk Assessment

The publication in 1962 of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring marks the mid-point in a century that saw, in its first half, the emergence of public health concerns related to human exposures to chemicals, and, in its second half, the emergence of public policies to deal with those concerns. Those policies made it imperative that the scientific community come to grips with the problem of identifying exposure levels not likely to cause harm. This problem was not significantly discussed within the scientific community until the 1950s, and well-described methods for practical solutions to it did not appear until the 1970s. An important report from the National Academy of Sciences, published in 1983 (Risk Assessment in the Federal Government), provided an analysis of these emerging methods, and recommended a useful framework for the assessment and management of risk. This framework remains central to public health and regulatory decision-making. A high-level perspective is offered on events leading to and following the 1983 report. The article describes early thinking about chemical toxicity and the scientific path that thinking followed through the 20th century, and to the present.     

城市景观生态风险评估框架与实践——以北京天坛地区为例

当前，城市景观生态风险研究缺少科学合理、方便实用的评估框架。作者基于景观生态风险评估基本范式，明确了城市景观生态服务价值的测算方法，分析了引起生态损害的自然因素和人类活动因素，形成了城市景观生态风险评估的技术框架和参数体系；继而以北京天坛地区为研究区，开展了典型城市景观生态风险的定量评估。结果表明：（1）天坛地区景观生态价值总量约为2.41亿元。区域的历史文化价值最高，教育和美学景观价值紧随其后。（2）城市景观生态受损概率呈现"北高南低"的空间分布格局。生态受损概率的高值区面积占整个区域总面积的22.2%，主要分布在珠市口、磁器口和崇文门附近区域。（3）城市景观生态风险呈现"北低南高"的空间分布格局。高风险区主要分布在天坛公园内的文物建筑周边。本研究提供了一个可参考的城市景观生态风险评估应用框架，对生态风险评估中的不确定性进行了讨论，研究针对天坛案例区的具体结论有助于城市管理者避免潜在的风险。     

Assessing water scarcity by simultaneously considering environmental flow requirements,water quantity,and water quality

Water scarcity is a widespread problem in many parts of the world. Most previous methods of water scarcity assessment only considered water quantity, and ignored water quality. In addition, the environmental flow requirement (EFR) was commonly not explicitly considered in the assessment. In this study, we developed an approach to assess water scarcity by considering both water quantity and quality, while at the same time explicitly considering EFR. We applied this quantity–quality-EFR (QQE) approach for the Huangqihai River Basin in Inner Mongolia, China. We found that to keep the river ecosystem health at a “good” level (i.e., suitable for swimming, fishing, and aquaculture), 26% of the total blue water resources should be allocated to meet the EFR. When such a “good” level is maintained, the quantity- and quality-based water scarcity indicators were 1.3 and 14.2, respectively; both were above the threshold of 1.0. The QQE water scarcity indicator thus can be expressed as 1.3(26%)|14.2, indicating that the basin was suffering from scarcity problems related to both water quantity and water quality for a given rate of EFR. The current water consumption has resulted in degradation of the basin's river ecosystems, and the EFR cannot be met in 3 months of a year. To reverse this situation, future policies should aim to reduce water use and pollution discharge, meet the EFR for maintaining healthy river ecosystems, and substantially improve pollution treatment.     

Changes in plant species richness and productivity in response to decreased nitrogen inputs in grassland in southern England

Biomass production and plant species diversity in grassland in southern England was monitored before and after a change from conventional to organic farming. Our 18-year study, part of the UK's Environmental Change Network long-term monitoring programme, showed that the cessation of artificial fertiliser use on grassland after conversion to organic farming resulted in a decrease in biomass production and an increase in plant species richness. Grassland productivity decreased immediately after fertiliser application ceased, and after two years the annual total biomass production had fallen by over 50%. In the subsequent decade, total annual grassland productivity did not change significantly, and yields reached 31–66% of the levels recorded pre-management change. Plant species richness that had remained stable during the first 5 years of our study under conventional farming, increased by 300% over the following 13 years under organic farm management. We suggest that the change in productivity is due to the altered composition of species within the plots. In the first few years after the change in farming practice, high yielding, nitrogen-loving plants were outcompeted by lower yielding grasses and forbs, and these species remained in the plots in the following years. This study shows that grassland can be converted from an environment lacking in plant species diversity to a relatively species-rich pasture within 10–15 years, simply by stopping or suspending nitrogen additions. We demonstrate that the trade-off for increasing species richness is a decrease in productivity. Grassland in the UK is often not only managed from a conservation perspective, but to also produce a profitable yield. By considering the species composition and encouraging specific beneficial species such as legumes, it may be possible to improve biomass productivity and reduce the trade-off.     

The significance of mycotoxins in the framework of assessing workplace related risks

Mycotoxins are fungal metabolite which may in some cases exhibit a high health hazard potential. Mycotoxins can show carcinogenic, mutagenic, toxic, teratogenic or immunotoxic effects. Mycotoxin exposure in the workplace may occur through inhalation and skin contact,e.g. during occupational handling of organic matter such as livestock feed, food products, or waste. Various studies suggest that both acute and chronic effects can occur, depending at least on the exposure level. The magnitude of the potential health risks associated with a respiratory or dermal intake of mycotoxins has largely remained unclear to date. However, according to the directive 2000/54/EC on biological agents and the corresponding German Biological Agents Ordinance, employers are also required to consider the potential hazards posed by toxic effects of biological agents when assessing workplace risks. The aim of this article, therefore, is to present some basis information that should facilitate an evaluation of the significance of mycotoxins in the context of assessing workplace risks. It also provides suggestions for occupational health and safety measures.