Coevolution of costly mate choice and condition-dependent display of good genes.

Females often choose their mates, instead of mating at random, even when a father contributes nothing but genes to his offspring. Costly female preferences for males with exaggerated traits that reduce viability, such as the peacock's tail, are particularly puzzling. Such preferences can evolve if directly favoured by natural selection or when the exaggerated trait, although maladaptive per se, indicates high overall quality of the male's genotype. Two recent analyses suggested that the advantage to mate choice based on genetic quality is too weak to explain extreme cases of exaggeration of display traits and the corresponding preferences. We studied coevolution of a female mate-preference function and a genotype-dependent male display function where mutation supplies variation in genotype quality and mate preference is costly. Preference readily evolves, often causing extreme exaggeration of the display. Mate choice and trait expression can approach an equilibrium, or a limit cycle, or exaggeration can proceed forever, eventually causing extinction.     

Young Children's Probability of Dying Before and After Their Mother's Death: A Rural South African Population-Based Surveillance Study

Background

There is evidence that a young child''s risk of dying increases following the mother''s death, but little is known about the risk when the mother becomes very ill prior to her death. We hypothesized that children would be more likely to die during the period several months before their mother''s death, as well as for several months after her death. Therefore we investigated the relationship between young children''s likelihood of dying and the timing of their mother''s death and, in particular, the existence of a critical period of increased risk.

Methods and Findings

Data from a health and socio-demographic surveillance system in rural South Africa were collected on children 0–5 y of age from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2008. Discrete time survival analysis was used to estimate children''s probability of dying before and after their mother''s death, accounting for moderators. 1,244 children (3% of sample) died from 1994 to 2008. The probability of child death began to rise 6–11 mo prior to the mother''s death and increased markedly during the 2 mo immediately before the month of her death (odds ratio [OR] 7.1 [95% CI 3.9–12.7]), in the month of her death (OR 12.6 [6.2–25.3]), and during the 2 mo following her death (OR 7.0 [3.2–15.6]). This increase in the probability of dying was more pronounced for children whose mothers died of AIDS or tuberculosis compared to other causes of death, but the pattern remained for causes unrelated to AIDS/tuberculosis. Infants aged 0–6 mo at the time of their mother''s death were nine times more likely to die than children aged 2–5 y. The limitations of the study included the lack of knowledge about precisely when a very ill mother will die, a lack of information about child nutrition and care, and the diagnosis of AIDS deaths by verbal autopsy rather than serostatus.

Conclusions

Young children in lower income settings are more likely to die not only after their mother''s death but also in the months before, when she is seriously ill. Interventions are urgently needed to support families both when the mother becomes very ill and after her death. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Cross‐sex genetic covariances limit the evolvability of wing‐shape within and among species of Drosophila

The independent evolution of males and females is potentially constrained by both sexes inheriting the same alleles from their parents. This genetic constraint can limit the evolvability of complex traits; however, there are few studies of multivariate evolution that incorporate cross‐sex genetic covariances in their predictions. Drosophila wing‐shape has emerged as a model high‐dimensional phenotype; wing‐shape is highly evolvable in contemporary populations, and yet perplexingly stable across phylogenetic timescales. Here, we show that cross‐sex covariances in Drosophila melanogaster, given by the B ‐matrix, may considerably bias wing‐shape evolution. Using random skewers, we show that B would constrain the response to antagonistic selection by 90%, on average, but would double the response to concordant selection. Both cross‐sex within‐trait and cross‐sex cross‐trait covariances determined the predicted response to antagonistic selection, but only cross‐sex within‐trait covariances facilitated the predicted response to concordant selection. Similar patterns were observed in the direction of extant sexual dimorphism in D. melanogaster, and in directions of most and least dimorphic variation across the Drosophila phylogeny. Our results highlight the importance of considering between‐sex genetic covariances when making predictions about evolution on both macro‐ and microevolutionary timescales, and may provide one more explanatory piece in the puzzle of stasis.     

Base Cation Cycling in a Pristine Watershed of the Canadian Boreal Forest

In forest ecosystems the single largest respiratory flux influencing net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is the total soil CO₂ efflux; however, it is difficult to make measurements of this flux that are accurate at the ecosystem scale. We examined patterns of soil CO₂ efflux using five different methods: auto-chambers, portable gas analyzers, eddy covariance along and two models parameterized with the observed data. The relation between soil temperature and soil moisture with soil CO₂ effluxes are also investigated, both inter-annually and seasonally, using these observations/results. Soil respiration rates (R _soil) are greatest during the growing season when soil temperatures are between 15 and 25 °C, but some soil CO₂ efflux occurs throughout the year. Measured soil respiration was sensitive to soil temperature, particularly during the spring and fall. All measurement methods produced similar annual estimates. Depending on the time of the year, the eddy covariance (flux tower) estimate for ecosystem respiration is similar to or slightly lower than estimates of annual soil CO₂ efflux from the other methods. As the eddy covariance estimate includes foliar and stem respiration which the other methods do not; it was expected to be larger (perhaps 15–30%). The auto-chamber system continuously measuring soil CO₂ efflux rates provides a level of temporal resolution that permits investigation of short- to longer term influences of factors on these efflux rates. The expense of building and maintaining an auto chamber system may not be necessary for those researchers interested in estimating R _soil annually, but auto-chambers do allow the capture of data from all seasons needed for model parameterization.     

Impacts of Climate Change on the Timing of the Production Season of Maple Syrup in Eastern Canada

Maple syrup production is an important economic activity in north-eastern North-America. The beginning and length of the production season is linked to daily variation in temperature. There are increasing concerns about the potential impact of climatic change on this industry. Here, we used weekly data of syrup yield for the 1999–2011 period from 121 maple stands in 11 regions of Québec (Canada) to predict how the period of production may be impacted by climate warming. The date at which the production begins is highly variable between years with an average range of 36 days among the regions. However, the average start date for a given region, which ranged from Julian day 65 to 83, was highly predictable (r² = 0.88) using the average temperature from January to April (T_J-A). A logistic model predicting the weekly presence or absence of production was also developed. Using the inputs of 77 future climate scenarios issued from global models, projections of future production timing were made based on average T_J-A and on the logistic model. The projections of both approaches were in very good agreement and suggest that the sap season will be displaced to occur 15–19 days earlier on average in the 2080–2100 period. The data also show that the displacement in time will not be accompanied by a greater between years variability in the beginning of the season. However, in the southern part of Québec, very short periods of syrup production due to unfavourable conditions in the spring will occur more frequently in the future although their absolute frequencies will remain low.     

Estimating sampling error of evolutionary statistics based on genetic covariance matrices using maximum likelihood

We explore the estimation of uncertainty in evolutionary parameters using a recently devised approach for resampling entire additive genetic variance–covariance matrices ( G ). Large‐sample theory shows that maximum‐likelihood estimates (including restricted maximum likelihood, REML) asymptotically have a multivariate normal distribution, with covariance matrix derived from the inverse of the information matrix, and mean equal to the estimated G . This suggests that sampling estimates of G from this distribution can be used to assess the variability of estimates of G , and of functions of G . We refer to this as the REML‐MVN method. This has been implemented in the mixed‐model program WOMBAT. Estimates of sampling variances from REML‐MVN were compared to those from the parametric bootstrap and from a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach (implemented in the R package MCMCglmm). We apply each approach to evolvability statistics previously estimated for a large, 20‐dimensional data set for Drosophila wings. REML‐MVN and MCMC sampling variances are close to those estimated with the parametric bootstrap. Both slightly underestimate the error in the best‐estimated aspects of the G matrix. REML analysis supports the previous conclusion that the G matrix for this population is full rank. REML‐MVN is computationally very efficient, making it an attractive alternative to both data resampling and MCMC approaches to assessing confidence in parameters of evolutionary interest.     

Tree Climbing Strategies for Primate Ecological Studies

Primate ecological studies can benefit from accessing the canopy to estimate intra-tree and inter-tree variation in food availability and nutrient value, patch and subpatch depletion, foraging efficiency, as well as nest structure and nesting behaviors, parasitic transmission and predator detectability. We compare several ways to access the canopy and examine their suitability for studies of primates. Two of them—the Single Rope Technique and the Climbing Spur Method—allow people to safely access almost all kinds of trees, regardless of their size, height or shape. Modern climbing gear and contemporaneous safety protocols, derived from rock climbers, speleologists, and industrial arborists, are reliable and appropriate for primate ecological studies. Climbing gear is specialized and still expensive for students, but tree climbing can be dangerous during specific maneuvres. Consequently, formal training and preliminary experience are essential before attempting to collect data. We discuss the physics of falling, risk assessment associated with a fall, knots, gear and safety precautions. Finally, we propose a Tree Climbing Safety Protocol adapted for 2 climbing methods and primate field ecology. Researchers should be aware that climbing safety depends on their own judgment, which must be based on competent instruction, experience, and a realistic assessment of climbing ability. Therefore, the information we provide should be used only to supplement competent personal instruction and training in situ. Although most primate observations have been and will mostly be done from the ground in the future, canopy information complements the observations. Canopy data will add a significant new dimension to our knowledge of primates by providing strategic information otherwise unavailable.     

Mantel and partial Mantel tests suggest some factors that may control the local distribution of Aster laurentianus at Îles de la Madeleine,Québec

Spatial heterogeneity is a significant aspect of ecosystem structure andfunction. Because ecological variables often are spatially autocorrelated,standard statistics frequently are not appropriate to analyze ecological data.In this paper, we use Mantel and partial Mantel tests to explore the spatialstructure of and relationships between several variables –micro-topography, substrate salinity, wrack cover and the density ofAster laurentianus – at two sites at the peripheryofa shallow lagoon at Îles de la Madeleine, Québec.A. laurentianus is an annual halophyte endemic tothe Gulf of St. Lawrence. It typically occurs in a narrow band (from ca. 50 to200 cm wide) at the periphery of shallow lagoons. In this habitat,plants are exposed to frequent deposition of plant debris (wrack) and to thelimiting effects of substrate salinity.Our analyses show that substrate salinity, wrack cover and density ofA. laurentianus are significantly correlated withtopography, and that wrack cover affects substrate salinity at both sites. Atthe first site, the abundance of A. laurentianus increasesprogressively with distance from the waterline, while at the second site,density increases initially, but then diminishes with distance from thewaterline. At the first site, the most important structuring variable is wrackdeposition, the effect of salinity on plant density being indirect. At thesecond site, which is somewhat sheltered, wrack deposition is far lessimportantand substrate salinity predominates over wrack deposition as structuringvariable. We suggest that A. laurentianus distributionalong the shores of shallow lagoons is limited both by substrate salinity andwrack deposition, but that the relative importance of these structuringvariables changes with the physical characteristics of the site.