Scale and uncertainty in modeled soil organic carbon stock changes for US croplands using a process‐based model

Process‐based model analyses are often used to estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), particularly at regional to continental scales. However, uncertainties are rarely evaluated, and so it is difficult to determine how much confidence can be placed in the results. Our objective was to quantify uncertainties across multiple scales in a process‐based model analysis, and provide 95% confidence intervals for the estimates. Specifically, we used the Century ecosystem model to estimate changes in SOC stocks for US croplands during the 1990s, addressing uncertainties in model inputs, structure and scaling of results from point locations to regions and the entire country. Overall, SOC stocks increased in US croplands by 14.6 Tg C yr^?1 from 1990 to 1995 and 17.5 Tg C yr^?1 during 1995 to 2000, and uncertainties were ±22% and ±16% for the two time periods, respectively. Uncertainties were inversely related to spatial scale, with median uncertainties at the regional scale estimated at ±118% and ±114% during the early and latter part of 1990s, and even higher at the site scale with estimates at ±739% and ±674% for the time periods, respectively. This relationship appeared to be driven by the amount of the SOC stock change; changes in stocks that exceeded 200 Gg C yr^?1 represented a threshold where uncertainties were always lower than ±100%. Consequently, the amount of uncertainty in estimates derived from process‐based models will partly depend on the level of SOC accumulation or loss. In general, the majority of uncertainty was associated with model structure in this application, and so attaining higher levels of precision in the estimates will largely depend on improving the model algorithms and parameterization, as well as increasing the number of measurement sites used to evaluate the structural uncertainty.     

Coccidian Parasites (Apicomplexa: Eimeriidae) of Nerodia spp. (Serpentes: Colubridae), with a Description of a New Species of Eimeria

Eimeria conanli n. sp. (Apicomplexa: Eimeriidae) is described from intestinal contents and feces of Nerodia erythrogaster transversa and N harteri harteri from northcentral Texas. Oocysts of the new species are ellipsoid in shape. 17.9 × 13.0(15–21 × 12–15) μm, with a smooth, thin, single-layered wall; shape index 1.4 (1.2–1.5). One to several (usually 2) polar granule(s) and an oocyst residuum are present, but a micropyie is absent. Sporocysts are elongate, 12.9 × 5.2 (13–15 × 5–6) -m, apparently without a true Stieda body structure. Each sporoeyst contains an ellipsoid residuum, 3.9 × 3.2 (3–6 × 2–4) μm, and elongate sporozoites, 11.4 × 2.5 (10–14 × 2–3) μm in situ, each with a spherical or subspherical anterior refractile body and spherical to ellipsoid posterior refractile body. In addition to the new species, oocysts of 4 previously described eimerians from colubrid snakes were found in these hosts.     

Data-Mining Discovery of Pattern and Process in Ecological Systems

ABSTRACT Most ecologists use statistical methods as their main analytical tools when analyzing data to identify relationships between a response and a set of predictors; thus, they treat all analyses as hypothesis tests or exercises in parameter estimation. However, little or no prior knowledge about a system can lead to creation of a statistical model or models that do not accurately describe major sources of variation in the response variable. We suggest that under such circumstances data mining is more appropriate for analysis. In this paper we 1) present the distinctions between data-mining (usually exploratory) analyses and parametric statistical (confirmatory) analyses, 2) illustrate 3 strengths of data-mining tools for generating hypotheses from data, and 3) suggest useful ways in which data mining and statistical analyses can be integrated into a thorough analysis of data to facilitate rapid creation of accurate models and to guide further research.     

Determining uptake of 'non-labile' soil cadmium by Thlaspi caerulescens using isotopic dilution techniques

We assessed the ability of several populations of the metal-hyperaccumulator species, Thlaspi caerulescens , to mobilize non-labile cadmium in soils historically contaminated by Pb/Zn mine spoil or sewage sludge. Radio- labile Cd was determined chemically as an ' E -value', [Cd _E ], and biologically as an ' L -value', [Cd _L ]. For comparison, chloride-extractable Cd, [Cd_chlor], was also determined using 1 M CaCl₂ as a single-step soil extractant. Values of [Cd _L ] were measured for six populations of T. caerulescens that varied substantially in their ability to assimilate soil Cd, and a non-accumulator species with a similar growth habit, Lepidium heterophyllum . Seeds were sown in soil spiked with ¹⁰⁹Cd and grown for 9–12 wk in a controlled environment room. Values of [Cd _L ] were determined from the specific activity of ¹⁰⁹Cd and concentration of Cd in the plant leaves. For the six soils studied, [Cd _E ] ranged from 4.9 to 49% of total soil Cd [Cd_T]. Values of [Cd _L ] were, in general, in close agreement with both [Cd _E ] and [Cd_chlor] and substantially less than [Cd_T]. However, [Cd _L ] showed no correlation with the concentration of Cd in plant tissue, [Cd_shoot]. This suggests that, in the soils studied, T. caerulescens did not mobilize non-labile soil Cd by producing root exudates or altering rhizosphere pH. The results imply that there may be significant restrictions to metal bioavailability, even to hyperaccumulator species, in heavily contaminated soils in which a large proportion of the metal may be present in 'non-labile' forms.     

Causes of vertical stratification in the density of Cameraria hamadryadella

1. The density of Cameraria hamadryadella, a leaf-mining moth, is vertically stratified within the crown of oak trees. It occurs at higher densities on foliage in the lower crown. 2. Oviposition preference tests indicate that females display no preference to oviposit on foliage from the lower tree crown over foliage from the upper tree crown. 3. Experiments in which potted trees were placed at various heights indicate that foliage nearest ground level receives more oviposition, and that the higher rates of oviposition on foliage near the ground is not caused by differences in quality between foliage from low or high in the tree crown. 4. Host-plant- and natural-enemy-mediated juvenile mortality and the abundance of parasitoids did not differ between the upper and lower crown. 5. Vertical differences in the timing of leaf production within the tree crown are unlikely to account for the observed gradient in the abundance of C. hamadryadella. Furthermore, the mean date of leaf fall does not differ among heights within the tree crown. 6. It is argued that microclimatic gradients and interspecific competition are also unlikely to account for the observed gradients in the density of C. hamadryadella within the tree crown. 7. Because of the absence of effects of other potentially causal factors, the most likely explanation for the gradient in density of C. hamadryadella is a lack of movement by females into the upper tree crown from overwintering, emergence, or resting sites located in the lower tree crown, combined with egg depletion by females as they move from the lower to the upper tree crown. 8. It is suggested that the lack of movement and egg depletion hypothesis should serve as the null hypothesis in studies of vertical stratification of tree-feeding insects. In the absence of evidence of an effect of foliage quality, natural enemies, plant phenology, interspecific competition, or microclimate, the movement and egg depletion hypothesis is the most reasonable.     

Succession following wildfire in coastal heathland (Nadgee Nature Reserve N.S.W.)

Changes in coastal heath vegetation were measured for 6 years following a wildfire and the data compared with the pre-fire vegetation. For the first 2 years changes were related to time; after that environmental factors dominated the process of regeneration. During the first 4 years plant species spread rapidly and maximum species diversity per plot was reached 4 years after the fire. About the same time many species consolidated their position in the community; this being shown by cover levels greater than before the fire for some species. Six years after the fire the vegetation is still dynamic and very different when compared with the heath before burning.     

A review of ploidy in the genus Prosopis (Leguminosae)

The genus Prosopis contains 44 species of trees and shrubs, the majority of which originate in the Americas. Most species are reported to be diploid, with a somatic chromosome number of 2 n  = 28. There are rare reports of polyploidy, although it is thought that these may represent polysomaty in root tissues. However, flow cytometry has recently indicated that P. juliflora is entirely tetraploid with a somatic chromosome number of 2 n  = 56. In order to clarify the situation, an extensive review of ploidy in Prosopis was undertaken, the first of its kind. The ploidy levels of 124 samples of Prosopis from 21 countries, including both the natural and introduced ranges, were analysed using flow cytometry. In addition, a comprehensive literature review was carried out, examining 305 published ploidy values and covering 32 of the 44 species of Prosopis . Flow cytometry analysis suggests that P. juliflora is the only tetraploid species, with a somatic chromosome number of 2 n  = 4 x  = 56, whilst the remainder of the species analysed are diploid with 2 n  = 2 x  = 28, including the first report for P. articulata (2 n  = 28). A critical review of published ploidy values shows that all species of Prosopis are reported to be entirely diploid, except P. glandulosa , P. juliflora , and P. koelziana , for which both diploid and tetraploid values have been recorded. © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2008, 156 , 425–438.