Early Warning Signals for Rate-induced Critical Transitions in Salt Marsh Ecosystems

Ecosystems - Intertidal ecosystems are important because of their function as coastal protection and ecological value. Sea level rise may lead to submergence of salt marshes worldwide. Salt marshes...     

Positive interactions, discontinuous transitions and species coexistence in plant communities

The population and community level consequences of positive interactions between plants remain poorly explored. In this study we incorporate positive resource-mediated interactions in classic resource competition theory and investigate the main consequences for plant population dynamics and species coexistence. We focus on plant communities for which water infiltration rates exhibit positive dependency on plant biomass and where plant responses can be improved by shading, particularly under water limiting conditions. We show that the effects of these two resource-mediated positive interactions are similar and additive. We predict that positive interactions shift the transition points between different species compositions along environmental gradients and that realized niche widths will expand or shrink. Furthermore, continuous transitions between different community compositions can become discontinuous and bistability or tristability can occur. Moreover, increased infiltration rates may give rise to a new potential coexistence mechanism that we call controlled facilitation.     

The Effects of Spatial Scale on Trophic Interactions

Food chain models have dominated empirical studies of trophic interactions in the past decades, and have lead to important insights into the factors that control ecological communities. Despite the importance of food chain models in instigating ecological investigations, many empirical studies still show a strong deviation from the dynamics that food chain models predict. We present a theoretical framework that explains some of the discrepancies by showing that trophic interactions are likely to be strongly influenced by the spatial configuration of consumers and their resources. Differences in the spatial scale at which consumers and their resources function lead to uncoupling of the population dynamics of the interacting species, and may explain overexploitation and depletion of resource populations. We discuss how changed land use, likely the most prominent future stress on natural systems, may affect food web dynamics by interfering with the scale of interaction between consumers and their resource.     

Antigonon leptopus invasion is associated with plant community disassembly in a Caribbean island ecosystem

Biological Invasions - Invasions by non-native plant species are widely recognized as a major driver of biodiversity loss. Globally, (sub-)tropical islands form important components of biodiversity...     

A putative mechanism for bog patterning

The surface of bogs commonly shows various spatial vegetation patterning. Typical are "string patterns" consisting of regular densely vegetated bands oriented perpendicular to the slope. Here, we report on regular "maze patterns" on flat ground, consisting of bands densely vegetated by vascular plants in a more sparsely vegetated matrix of nonvascular plant communities. We present a model reproducing these maze and string patterns, describing how nutrient-limited vascular plants are controlled by, and in turn control, both hydrology and solute transport. We propose that the patterns are self-organized and originate from a nutrient accumulation mechanism. In the model, this is caused by the convective transport of nutrients in the groundwater toward areas with higher vascular plant biomass, driven by differences in transpiration rate. In a numerical bifurcation analysis we show how the maze patterns originate from the spatially homogeneous equilibrium and how this is affected by changes in rainfall, nutrient input, and plant properties. Our results confirm earlier model results, showing that redistribution of a limiting resource may lead to fine-scale facilitative and coarse-scale competitive plant interactions in different ecosystems. Self-organization in ecosystems may be a more general phenomenon than previously thought, which can be mechanistically linked to scale-dependent facilitation and competition.     

Scale-dependent feedback and regular spatial patterns in young mussel beds

In the past decade, theoretical ecologists have emphasized that local interactions between predators and prey may invoke emergent spatial patterning at larger spatial scales. However, empirical evidence for the occurrence of emergent spatial patterning is scarce, which questions the relevance of the proposed mechanisms to ecological theory. We report on regular spatial patterns in young mussel beds on soft sediments in the Wadden Sea. We propose that scale-dependent feedback, resulting from short-range facilitation by mutual protection from waves and currents and long-range competition for algae, induces spatial self-organization, thereby providing a possible explanation for the observed patterning. The emergent self-organization affects the functioning of mussel bed ecosystems by enhancing productivity and resilience against disturbance. Moreover, self-organization allows mussels to persist at algal concentrations that would not permit survival of mussels in a homogeneous bed. Our results emphasize the importance of self-organization in affecting the emergent properties of natural systems at larger spatial scales.     

Robust scaling in ecosystems and the meltdown of patch size distributions before extinction

Robust critical systems are characterized by power laws which occur over a broad range of conditions. Their robust behaviour has been explained by local interactions. While such systems could be widespread in nature, their properties are not well understood. Here, we study three robust critical ecosystem models and a null model that lacks spatial interactions. In all these models, individuals aggregate in patches whose size distributions follow power laws which melt down under increasing external stress. We propose that this power-law decay associated with the connectivity of the system can be used to evaluate the level of stress exerted on the ecosystem. We identify several indicators along the transition to extinction. These indicators give us a relative measure of the distance to extinction, and have therefore potential application to conservation biology, especially for ecosystems with self-organization and critical transitions.     

Slowing down in spatially patterned ecosystems at the brink of collapse

Predicting the risk of critical transitions, such as the collapse of a population, is important in order to direct management efforts. In any system that is close to a critical transition, recovery upon small perturbations becomes slow, a phenomenon known as critical slowing down. It has been suggested that such slowing down may be detected indirectly through an increase in spatial and temporal correlation and variance. Here, we tested this idea in arid ecosystems, where vegetation may collapse to desert as a result of increasing water limitation. We used three models that describe desertification but differ in the spatial vegetation patterns they produce. In all models, recovery rate upon perturbation decreased before vegetation collapsed. However, in one of the models, slowing down failed to translate into rising variance and correlation. This is caused by the regular self-organized vegetation patterns produced by this model. This finding implies an important limitation of variance and correlation as indicators of critical transitions. However, changes in such self-organized patterns themselves are a reliable indicator of an upcoming transition. Our results illustrate that while critical slowing down may be a universal phenomenon at critical transitions, its detection through indirect indicators may have limitations in particular systems.     

The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation

In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self‐organised) spatial patterns – typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self‐organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre‐emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy.