Predicting the unexpected: using a qualitative model of a New Zealand dryland ecosystem to anticipate pest management outcomes

Pest management is expensive and there is often uncertainty about the benefits for the resources being protected. There can also be unintended consequences for other parts of the ecosystem, especially in complex food webs. In making decisions managers generally have to rely on qualitative information collected in a piecemeal fashion. A method to assist decision making is a qualitative modelling approach using fuzzy cognitive maps, a directed graphical model related to neural networks that can take account of interactions between pests and conservation assets in complex food webs. Using all available information on relationships between native and exotic resources and consumers, we generated hypotheses about potential consequences of single‐species and multi‐species pest control on the long‐term equilibrium abundances of other biotic components of an ecosystem. We applied the model to a dryland ecosystem in New Zealand because we had good information on its trophic structure, but the information on the strength of species interactions was imprecise. Our model suggested that pest control is unlikely to significantly boost native invertebrates and lizards in this ecosystem, suggesting that other forms of management may be required for these groups. Most of the pest control regimes tested resulted in greater abundances of at least one other pest species, which could potentially lead to other management problems. Some of the predictions were unexpected, such as more birds resulting from possum and mouse control. We also modelled the effects of an increase in invasive rabbits, which led to unexpected declines of stoats, weasels, mice and possums. These unexpected outcomes resulted from complex indirect pathways in the food web. Fuzzy cognitive maps allow rapid construction of prototype models of complex food webs using a wide range of data and expert opinion. Their utility lies in providing direction for future monitoring efforts and generating hypotheses that can be tested with field experiments.     

Impact of climate change on vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909) in North America

Climate change can influence the geographical range of the ecological niche of pathogens by altering biotic interactions with vectors and reservoirs. The distributions of 20 epidemiologically important triatomine species in North America were modelled, comparing the genetic algorithm for rule‐set prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt), with or without topographical variables. Potential shifts in transmission niche for Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) (Chagas, 1909) were analysed for 2050 and 2070 in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. There were no significant quantitative range differences between the GARP and MaxEnt models, but GARP models best represented known distributions for most species [partial‐receiver operating characteristic (ROC) > 1]; elevation was an important variable contributing to the ecological niche model (ENM). There was little difference between niche breadth projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; the majority of species shifted significantly in both periods. Those species with the greatest current distribution range are expected to have the greatest shifts. Positional changes in the centroid, although reduced for most species, were associated with latitude. A significant increase or decrease in mean niche elevation is expected principally for Neotropical 1 species. The impact of climate change will be specific to each species, its biogeographical region and its latitude. North American triatomines with the greatest current distribution ranges (Nearctic 2 and Nearctic/Neotropical) will have the greatest future distribution shifts. Significant shifts (increases or decreases) in mean elevation over time are projected principally for the Neotropical species with the broadest current distributions. Changes in the vector exposure threat to the human population were significant for both future periods, with a 1.48% increase for urban populations and a 1.76% increase for rural populations in 2050.     

Behavioural and electrophysiological responses of Triatoma dimidiata nymphs to conspecific faecal volatiles

The behavioural and electrophysiological (electroantennography) responses of the first two instars of Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) Latreille to fresh and dry faecal headspace volatile extracts from fifth instar conspecific nymphs and synthetic compounds were analysed in this study. Recently emerged nymphs (3–5 days) aggregated around filter paper impregnated with dry faeces and around filter paper impregnated with extracts from both fresh and dry faeces. Older first instars (10–15 days) and second instars aggregated around filter paper impregnated with fresh and dry faeces, and their respective headspace extracts. Dry faecal volatile extracts elicited the strongest antennal responses, followed by fresh faecal extracts. Gas chromatography?mass spectrometry analysis of dried faecal headspace volatiles demonstrated the presence of 12 compounds: 2‐ethyl‐1‐hexanol, 1,2,4‐trimethylbenzene, n ‐octadecane, n ‐nonadecane, n ‐eicosane, n ‐heneicosane, n ‐tricosane, n ‐pentaeicosane, n ‐hexaeicosane, n ‐octaeicosane, nonanal, and 4‐methyl quinazoline. In fresh faecal headspace extracts, only nonanal was clearly detected, although there were other trace compounds, including several unidentified sesquiterpenes. Four of the 11 compounds tested individually elicited aggregation behaviour at concentrations of 100 ng/µL and 1 µg/µL. A blend containing these four components also mediated the aggregation of nymphs. These volatiles may be valuable for developing monitoring methods and designing sensitive strategies to detect and measure T. dimidiata infestation.     

Conservation of tissue and function in pulmonary resection the technique of the anatomical separation of segments

Total ablation of an entire limb to remove a small benign granuloma or tumor is unthinkable. Yet when an entire pulmonary lobe is removed for a similar lesion the sacrifice of normal tissue and function is taken for granted. Operations upon the lung commenced with pneumonectomy, were made more selective by lobectomy, and now can be confined to resection of single pulmonary segments when the diseased area is no more extensive, or to single segments in several lobes if necessary. Technically the pulmonary segment is the unit of pulmonary resection. The separation of one from another, or even a half of one from the other half, can be accomplished with anatomical accuracy. More widespread use of this operation will provide surgical aid to many bronchiectatic patients who otherwise are afflicted with disease too widespread for cure. It will conserve healthy lung tissue in benign conditions where removal of the diseased area is necessary. The technical steps of pulmonary segmental resection are outlined and illustrated.