The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) causes varicella upon first exposure and may reactivate later in life into herpes zoster (HZ), with a risk that is thought to be reduced by re-exposures to VZV. Given the decades-long time scales of reactivation and its dependence on the accumulation of re-exposure episodes, adopting a long-term perspective may be useful to correctly interpret current epidemiological trends of VZV. In this study, we investigate the possible impact of demographic changes on varicella and HZ in Spain, using an age-structured mathematical model informed with historical demographic data and calibrated against age-specific profiles of varicella seroprevalence and HZ incidence data. The model qualitatively reproduces the remarkable growth of HZ incidence observed in Spain between 1997 and 2004, before the introduction of varicella vaccination programmes. We demonstrate that this growth may be partially ascribed to the reduction of varicella circulation that followed the overall decline of the birth rate in the twentieth century. Model predictions further suggest that, even under the most optimistic projections, HZ incidence will continue its rise until at least 2040. Considering the effect of demographic changes can help interpreting variations in epidemiological trends of HZ, contributing to a more accurate evaluation of vaccination programmes against VZV.     

Cytokinin dynamics in xylem sap and leaves of fruiting and de-fruited sunflower hybrids of contrasting post-anthesis canopy senescence patterns during flowering and grain-filling

Plant and Soil - To determine whether xylem sap and leaf cytokinin levels were associated with live root length density (LRLD) and leaf senescence, these variables were measured in intact (control)...     

Carbon Sequestration of Caesalpinia platyloba S. Watt (Leguminosae) (Lott 1985) in the Tropical Deciduous Forest

Caesalpinia platyloba was evaluated as an alternative for the retention of atmospheric carbon and as a feasible and viable economic activity in terms of income for tropical deciduous forest (TDF) peasants in the carbon markets. A total of 110 trees of C. platyloba from plantations and a TDF in the Northwest of Mexico were sampled. Growth (increase in height, diameter, and volume curves) was adjusted to assess their growth. Growth of individuals (height, diameter at breast height [DBH], age, and tree crown cover) was recorded. The Schumacher model (H = β₀e^β₁•E-1), by means of the guided curve method, was used to adjust growth models. Information analysis was made through the non-linear procedure with the multivariate secant or false position (DUD) method using the SAS software. Growth and increase models revealed acceptable adjustments (pseudo R²>0.8). C. platyloba reaches >8m of height with 12cm in diameter and 550cm³ of volume, presenting the highest increase at 11 years considered as basal age. Highest significant density of wood was in good quality sites (0.80g•cm^-3), with a carbon content (average of 99.15tC•ha^-1) at the highest density of 2500 trees•ha^-1 (without thinning). Average incomes of US$483.33tC•ha^-1 are expected. The profitability values (NPW = US$81,646.65, IRR = 472%, and B/C = 0.82) for C. platyloba make its cultivation a viable and profitable activity, considering a management scheme of the income derived from wood selling and from carbon credits.     

Asymptotic distributions of kappa statistics and their differences with many raters,many rating categories and two conditions

In clinical research and in more general classification problems, a frequent concern is the reliability of a rating system. In the absence of a gold standard, agreement may be considered as an indication of reliability. When dealing with categorical data, the well‐known kappa statistic is often used to measure agreement. The aim of this paper is to obtain a theoretical result about the asymptotic distribution of the kappa statistic with multiple items, multiple raters, multiple conditions, and multiple rating categories (more than two), based on recent work. The result settles a long lasting quest for the asymptotic variance of the kappa statistic in this situation and allows for the construction of asymptotic confidence intervals. A recent application to clinical endoscopy and to the diagnosis of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) is shortly presented to complement the theoretical perspective.     

Assay of zofenopril and its active metabolite zofenoprilat by liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry

Zofenopril is a pro-drug designed to undergo metabolic hydrolysis yielding the active free sulfhydryl compound zofenoprilat, which is an angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, endowed also with a marked cardioprotective activity. A simple, highly sensitive specific LC–MS–MS method was developed for the determination of zofenopril and zofenoprilat in human plasma. In order to prevent oxidative degradation of zofenoprilat and its internal standard, their free sulfhydryl groups were protected by treatment with N-ethylmaleimide (NEM), which produced the succinimide derivatives. The compounds and their corresponding fluorine derivatives, used as internal standards, were extracted from plasma with toluene. The reconstituted dried extracts were chromatographed and then monitored by a triple-stage-quadrupole instrument operating in the negative ion spray ionization mode. The method was validated over the concentration range of 1–300 ng/ml for zofenopril and 2–600 ng/ml for zofenoprilat. Inter- and intra-assay precision and accuracy of both zofenopril and zofenoprilat were better than 10%. The limit of quantitation was 1 ng/ml with zofenopril and 2 ng/ml with zofenoprilat. Extraction recovery proved to be on average 84.8% with zofenopril and 70.1% with zofenoprilat. Similar recoveries were shown by the above two internal standards. The method was applied to measure plasma concentrations of zofenopril and zofenoprilat in 18 healthy volunteers treated orally with zofenopril calcium salt at the dose of 60 mg.