Optimal control strategies and cost-effectiveness analysis of a malaria model

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three malaria preventive measures (use of treated bednets, spray of insecticides and a possible treatment of infective humans that blocks transmission to mosquitoes). For this, we consider a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the disease that includes these measures. We first consider the constant control parameters’ case, we calculate the basic reproduction number and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria; the model is found to exhibit backward bifurcation. We then assess the relative impact of each of the constant control parameters measures by calculating the sensitivity index of the basic reproductive number to the model's parameters. In the time-dependent constant control case, we use Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease. We also calculate the Infection Averted Ratio (IAR) and the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) to investigate the cost-effectiveness of all possible combinations of the three control measures. One of our findings is that the most cost-effective strategy for malaria control, is the combination of the spray of insecticides and treatment of infective individuals. This strategy requires a 100% effort in both treatment (for 20 days) and spray of insecticides (for 57 days). In practice, this will be extremely difficult, if not impossible to achieve. The second most cost-effective strategy which consists of a 100% use of treated bednets and 87% treatment of infective individuals for 42 and 100 days, respectively, is sustainable and therefore preferable.     

The ‘Antiretrovirals,Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes’ (ASTRA) Study. Design,Methods and Participant Characteristics

Life expectancy for people diagnosed with HIV has improved dramatically however the number of new infections in the UK remains high. Understanding patterns of sexual behaviour among people living with diagnosed HIV, and the factors associated with having condom-less sex, is important for informing HIV prevention strategies and clinical care. In addition, in view of the current interest in a policy of early antiretroviral treatment (ART) for all people diagnosed with HIV in the UK, it is of particular importance to assess whether ART use is associated with increased levels of condom-less sex. In this context the ASTRA study was designed to investigate current sexual activity, and attitudes to HIV transmission risk, in a large unselected sample of HIV-infected patients under care in the UK. The study also gathered background information on demographic, socio-economic, lifestyle and disease-related characteristics, and physical and psychological symptoms, in order to identify other key factors impacting on HIV patients and the behaviours which underpin transmission. In this paper we describe the study rationale, design, methods, response rate and the demographic characteristics of the participants. People diagnosed with HIV infection attending 8 UK HIV out-patient clinics in 2011-2012 were invited to participate in the study. Those who agreed to participate completed a confidential, self-administered pen-and-paper questionnaire, and their latest CD4 count and viral load test results were recorded. During the study period, 5112 eligible patients were invited to take part in the study and 3258 completed questionnaires were obtained, representing a response rate of 64% of eligible patients. The study includes 2248 men who have sex with men (MSM), 373 heterosexual men and 637 women. Future results from ASTRA will be a key resource for understanding HIV transmission within the UK, targeting prevention efforts, and informing clinical care of individuals living with HIV.     

Molecular dynamics and combined docking studies for the identification of Zaire ebola virus inhibitors

Ebola virus (EBOV) is a lethal human pathogen with a risk of global spread of its zoonotic infections, and Ebolavirus Zaire specifically has the highest fatality rate amongst other species. There is a need for continuous effort towards having therapies, as a single licensed treatment to neutralize the EBOV is yet to come into reality. This present study virtually screened the MCULE database containing almost 36 million compounds against the structure of a Zaire Ebola viral protein (VP) 35 and a consensus scoring of both MCULE and CLCDDW docking programs remarked five compounds as potential hits. These compounds, with binding energies ranging from –7.9 to –8.9?kcal/mol, were assessed for predictions of their physicochemical and bioactivity properties, as well as absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADMET) criteria. The results of the 50?ns molecular dynamics simulations showed the presence of dynamic stability between ligand and protein complexes, and the structures remained significantly unchanged at the ligand-binding site throughout the simulation period. Both docking analysis and molecular dynamics simulation studies suggested strong binding affinity towards the receptor cavity and these selected compounds as potential inhibitors against the Zaire Ebola VP 35. With respect to inhibition constant values, bioavailability radar and other physicochemical properties, compound A (MCULE-1018045960-0-1) appeared to be the most promising hit compound. However, the ligand efficiency and ligand efficiency scale need improvement during optimization, and also validation via in vitro and in vivo studies are necessary to finally make a lead compound in treating Ebola virus diseases.

Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma     

Breastfeeding policy and practices at the general paediatric outpatient clinic of a teaching hospital in Lagos,Nigeria

Background

Hospitals have a role to play in supporting, protecting and promoting breastfeeding. The aim of this study was to describe hospital breastfeeding policy and practices and breastfeeding rates among mothers attending General Paediatric Outpatient Clinic at a tertiary hospital in Lagos, Nigeria.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study involving paediatric nurses and doctors, as well as the mothers who brought their child to the General Paediatric Outpatient Clinic. Two sets of questionnaires, different in content, were administered to doctors and nurses, and to mothers of children aged 6-24 months, to assess hospital policy and breastfeeding rates, respectively. Stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine factors associated with duration of breastfeeding.

Results

Although the hospital had a written breastfeeding policy copies of the policy were not clearly displayed in any of the units in the Paediatric department. Almost half the staff (48%; 60/125) were not aware of the policy. The hospital had no breastfeeding support group. Nearly three quarters (92/125) of the staff had received lactation management training. 36% (112/311) of mothers exclusively breastfed for six months, 42% (129/311) had stopped breastfeeding at the time of the survey. 67% (207/311) of babies were given infant formula, 85% (175/207) before 6 months. Women who had antenatal care in private hospitals and were Christian were more likely to breastfeed exclusively for 6 months. Low maternal education was the only factor associated with breastfeeding longer than 12 months.

Conclusion

Breastfeeding practices and policy implementation at this outpatient clinic were suboptimal. We have identified a need for interventions to increase knowledge of the benefits of breastfeeding and to provide support for its longer term duration. We suggest that BFHI be considered across all facilities concerned with infant and early child health to disseminate appropriate information and promote an increase in exclusive breastfeeding for six months as well as the duration of breastfeeding.

     

Analysis of recruitment and industrial human resources management for optimal productivity in the presence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic

The aim of this paper is to analyze the recruitment effects of susceptible and infected individuals in order to assess the productivity of an organizational labor force in the presence of HIV/AIDS with preventive and HAART treatment measures in enhancing the workforce output. We consider constant controls as well as time-dependent controls. In the constant control case, we calculate the basic reproduction number and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria. The model is found to exhibit backward and Hopf bifurcations, implying that for the disease to be eradicated, the basic reproductive number must be below a critical value of less than one. We also investigate, by calculating sensitivity indices, the sensitivity of the basic reproductive number to the model’s parameters. In the time-dependent control case, we use Pontryagin’s maximum principle to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results. The cost-effectiveness analysis results show that optimal efforts on recruitment (HIV screening of applicants, etc.) is not the most cost-effective strategy to enhance productivity in the organizational labor force. Hence, to enhance employees’ productivity, effective education programs and strict adherence to preventive measures should be promoted.     

Macrocystis angustifolia is a potential source of enzyme inhibitors linked to type 2 diabetes and dementia

In continuation of the screening of South African seaweeds to identify potential candidates for the development of pharmaceutically active functional foods, we investigated the inhibitory effects of a crude 80 % methanol extract, solvent fractions and isolated compounds from the kelp Macrocystis angustifolia against enzymes involved in type 2 diabetes and dementia. Repeated column fractionation of the ethyl acetate fraction of the crude extract of M. angustifolia afforded two phenol derivatives identified by spectroscopic analyses (1D and 2D NMR): 4-(2-hydroxyethyl)phenol (tyrosol) (1) and 4-(1,2-dihydroxyethyl)phenol (2). These compounds were isolated from a marine alga for the first time. The ethyl acetate (IC₅₀?=?14.08?±?1.21 μg mL^?1) and butanol (IC₅₀?=?77.94?±?11.69 μg mL^?1) fractions exhibited potent inhibition against α-glucosidase and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) enzymes, respectively. Tyrosol (1) and its derivative, 4-(1,2-dihydroxyethyl)phenol (2), showed potent inhibition against both α-glucosidase and AChE enzymes. Based on in silico evaluation, these two compounds are anticipated to possess sufficient oral bioavailability in accordance to the Lipinski Rule of Five without any toxicity risk. Natural α-glucosidase and AChE inhibitors from M. angustifolia offer a novel approach to control type 2 diabetes and dementia.     

Polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter (Pfcrt) and multidrug-resistant gene 1 (Pfmdr-1) in Nigerian children 10 years post-adoption of artemisinin-based combination treatments

The emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum parasites resistant to artemisinin derivatives and their partners in southeastern Asia threatens malaria control and elimination efforts, and heightens the need for an alternative therapy. We have explored the distribution of P. falciparum chloroquine resistance transporter (Pfcrt) and multidrug-resistant gene 1 (Pfmdr-1) haplotypes 10 years following adoption of artemisinin-based combination therapies in a bid to investigate the possible re-emergence of Chloroquine-sensitive parasites in Nigeria, and investigated the effect of these P. falciparum haplotypes on treatment outcomes of patients treated with artemisinin-based combination therapies. A total of 271 children aged <5 years with uncomplicated falciparum malaria were included in this study. Polymorphisms on codons 72–76 of the Pfcrt gene and codon 86 and 184 of Pfmdr-1 were determined using the high resolution melting assay. Of 240 (88.6%) samples successfully genotyped with HRM for Pfcrt, wildtype C₇₂M₇₄N₇₅K₇₆ (42.9%) and mutant C₇₂I₇₄E₇₅T₇₆ (53.8%) were observed. Also, wildtype N₈₆Y₁₈₄ (62.9%) and mutant N₈₆F₁₈₄ (21.1%), Y₈₆Y₁₈₄ (6.4%), and Y₈₆F₁₈₄ (0.4%) haplotypes of Pfmdr-1 were observed. Measures of responsiveness to ACTs were similar in children infected with P. falciparum crt haplotypes (C₇₂I₇₄E₇₅T₇₆ and C₇₂M₇₄N₇₅K₇₆) and major mdr-1 haplotypes (N₈₆Y₁₈₄, N₈₆F₁₈₄ and Y₈₆Y₁₈₄). Despite a 10 year gap since the malaria treatment policy changed to ACTs, over 50% of the P. falciparum parasites investigated in this study harboured the Chloroquine-resistant C₇₂I₇₄E₇₅T₇₆ haplotype, however this did not compromise the efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapies. Should complete artemisinin resistance emerge from or spread to Nigeria, chloroquine might not be a good alternative therapy.     

Body fat distribution of children and adolescents in Abeokuta,Southwest Nigeria

Excessive central fat in children and adolescents is a risk factor for cardiovascular and metabolic disorders. This study aimed to compare the body fat distribution patterns of children and adolescents in Abeokuta, Nigeria with international reference standards. Five hundred seventy children aged 5 to 19 years were selected from seven schools using multistage random sampling. Weight, height, triceps and subscapular skinfold thickness (TSF, SSF), and circumference at the waist and hips (WC, HC) were measured. Body mass index (BMI), subscapular:triceps skinfold ratio (STR), waist:hip circumference ratio (WHR), and waist: height ratio (WHtR) were derived. Females had higher mean BMI, TSF, SSF, WC, HC, WHR, and WHtR, while males had significantly higher STR. The mean BMI, WC, TSF, and SSF values were lower for our subjects than for African‐American subjects at all ages. On the other hand, in both sexes, STR was higher among Nigerian than African‐American subjects up to 12 years old. Thereafter the values were similar. The mean WC was similar to those reported for African‐American males up to 8 years, and females up to 7 years of age; thereafter, African‐American had higher values. The prevalence of central obesity using WC and WHtR measures was 4.4% and 5.8%, respectively. There is a need to validate each index against serum lipid profiles and other cardiovascular and metabolic risk factors. Am J Phys Anthropol 150:647–654, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

On a drug-resistant malaria model with susceptible individuals without access to basic amenities

In this paper, a deterministic malaria transmission model in the presence of a drug-resistant strain is investigated. The model is studied using stability theory of differential equations, optimal control, and computer simulation. The threshold condition for disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable and can only be achieved in the absence of a drug-resistant strain in the population. The existence of multiple endemic equilibria is also established. Both the Sensitivity Index (SI) of the model parameters and the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for all possible combinations of the disease-control measures are determined. Our results revealed among others that the most cost-effective strategy for drug-resistant malaria control is the combination of the provision of basic amenities (such as access to clean water, electricity, good roads, health care, and education) and treatment of infective individuals. Therefore, more efforts from policy-makers on the provisions of basic amenities and treatment of infectives would go a long way to combat the malaria epidemic.