A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Effect of feeding boxes on the behavior of stereotyping amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in the Zurich Zoo,Zurich, Switzerland

The stereotyped pacing shown by the two Amur tigers in the Zurich Zoo was hypothesized as being caused by permanently frustrated appetitive foraging behavior. Several electrically controlled feeding boxes were installed and access to each box was possible only twice a day for 15 min at semi‐random times. The boxes had to be opened actively by the tigers. Two trials were carried out: one with solitary confinement, and one with paired confinement. During box feeding, the female's stereotyped pacing was significantly reduced from 16% (solitary confinement, conventional feeding) and 7% (paired confinement, conventional feeding) to 1% (solitary confinement) and less than 0.01% (paired confinement) of the daily observed time. The female's sleeping increased significantly in both solitary and paired confinement. The male only showed a significant reduction in stereotyped pacing behavior when kept with the female (conventional feeding: 10%; box feeding: <0.01% of the daily observed time). On days with a box‐feeding regime in paired confinement, the male spent 25% (83 min) of the observed time with active behavior at the feeding boxes. The results support the hypothesis that permanently frustrated appetitive foraging behavior causes stereotyped pacing in adult tigers. Zoo Biol 21:573–584, 2002. © 2002 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Human λ light chain locus: Organization and DNA sequences of three genomicJ regions

Evidence for the genomic organization of human lambda light chain joining (J) region gene segments is presented. A mouse J probe was used in Southern hybridizations to localize joining region sequences in a cosmid clone containing the genomic cluster of six human lambda constant (C) region gene segments. The results of these hybridizations suggest the presence of at least one J gene segment upstream from each constant region gene segment. The DNA sequences indicate that the human JI, J2, and J3 gene segments have consensus nonamer and heptamer sequences, proposed to be involved in V-J joining, are capable of encoding the known amino acid sequences for the respective J peptides, and have a sequence which could give functional RNA splice site at the end of their coding regions. Our data show that a single functional J is located 1.3 or 1.6 kb upstream of each of the C gene segments known to encode the Mcg, Kern^– Oz^–, and Kern^–Oz⁺ isotypes. Therefore, the gene organization of this region of the human lambda locus is J1 CI -J2C2-J3C3. The DNA sequences ofJ 1,J 2, andJ 3 presented in this paper establish that a singleJ gene segment precedes each expressed C gene segment, and support a model for the evolution of the human JC clusters where JICI andJ2C2-J3C3. arose from different ancestral JC units.     

Operculum closing as a defence against predatory leeches in four British freshwater prosobranch snails

The defence reaction of operculum closing in response to the presence of the molluscivorous leech Glossiphonia complanata (L.) and the non-molluscivorous Erpobdella octoculata (L.) was studied in four species of freshwater prosobranch gastropod. Bithynia tentaculata (L.) and Valvata piscinalis (Müller) can distinguish between the leeches, reacting only to G. complanata. V. piscinalis is capable of a greater degree of distance chemoreception of the leech ‘scent’. Valvata cristata Müller and Potamopyrgus jenkinsi (Smith) did not react to either leech. V. cristata may not be a potential prey item for G. complanata, while P. jenkinsi is fed on by the leech, but is a relative newcomer to the freshwater fauna. Animal Ecology Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford Commonwealth Forestry Institute, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford     

Kinetic measurement of bacterial adherence to eukaryotic cells

We developed a kinetic assay using a monolayer of differentiated respiratory epithelium in culture to assess bacterial adherence. Mean residence time of bacteria in the tissue culture chamber was estimated from a model-independent (moment) analysis of the rate of bacterial washout from perfused Rose chambers. Results with this method compared favorably with visual assessment of adherence and double radiolabel method with H. influenzae. Adherence was assessed with low inoculae of H. influenzae, P. cepacia and P. aeruginosa avoiding cytotoxic effects seen when large inoculae are added to eukaryotic cells. This method will provide a means of assessing adherence of pathogenic respiratory bacteria to their cellular target at low inoculae.     

A selection cartridge for rapid detection and analysis of spontaneous mutations including insertions of transposable elements in Enterobacteriaceae

Summary We present a method that allows positive selection and rapid analysis of mutations in Enterobacteriaceae. Mutations are detected in a 2630 bp selection cartridge inserted in two different bacterial mutlicopy plasmid vectors. Spontaneous mutations in Escherichia coli, Enterobacter cloacae and Citrobacter freundii include insertions, deletions and point mutations. The small size of the target sequence facilitates rapid analysis of DNA rearrangements by cleavage with restriction enzymes and of any type of mutation by DNA sequence analysis. While in E. coli insertions of the mobile elements IS1, IS2 and IS5 were readily found, insertions of putative new transposable elements were detected in Enterobacter cloacae. The selection cartridge can thus serve as a tool for studying the spectrum of insertion mutations in Enterobacteriaceae and probably other Gramnegative bacteria, and the dependency of this spectrum on physiological and environmental factors and the host's genetic background can be investigated.     

A Comparison of the Efficacy of Nuclear Polyhedrosis and Granulosis Viruses in Spray and Bait Formulations for the Control of Agrotis segetum (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Maize

Agrotis segetum nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AsNPV) and granulosis virus (AsGV), propagated in laboratory cultures of A. segetum in England and A. ipsilon in Spain, respectively, were applied to plots of maize plants at the one‐ to four‐leaf stage of growth. Plots were arranged in a 6 x 6 Latin square design and infested with second‐instar A. segetum larvae (the common cutworm). Each virus was applied in separate treatments by two application methods; as an aqueous spray containing 0.1% Agral as a wetting agent, and as a bran bait. The NPV was applied at a rate of 4 X 10¹² polyhedra/ha, and the GV at 4 X 10¹³ granules/ha. Soil and plants were sampled for larvae on three occasions following virus treatment: 24 h, 4 days and 11 days. The larvae were reared on diet in the laboratory, until death or pupation, to examine the rate and level of viral infection. Infection data showed 87.5% and 91% NPV infection and 12.5% and 55% GV infection in spray and bait treatments, respectively, in larvae sampled 24 h after treatment. In larvae sampled 4 days after treatment, the results were 78% and 100% NPV infection, and 13% and 6% GV infection. A total of only six larvae were retrieved on day 11. In both treatments larvae infected with AsNPV died significantly more rapidly and at an earlier instar than those infected with AsGV, indicating that AsNPV appears to have better potential as a control agent for A. segetum.