Optimizing the Prediction Process: From Statistical Concepts to the Case Study of Soccer

We present a systematic approach for prediction purposes based on panel data, involving information about different interacting subjects and different times (here: two). The corresponding bivariate regression problem can be solved analytically for the final statistical estimation error. Furthermore, this expression is simplified for the special case that the subjects do not change their properties between the last measurement and the prediction period. This statistical framework is applied to the prediction of soccer matches, based on information from the previous and the present season. It is determined how well the outcome of soccer matches can be predicted theoretically. This optimum limit is compared with the actual quality of the prediction, taking the German premier league as an example. As a key step for the actual prediction process one has to identify appropriate observables which reflect the strength of the individual teams as close as possible. A criterion to distinguish different observables is presented. Surprisingly, chances for goals turn out to be much better suited than the goals themselves to characterize the strength of a team. Routes towards further improvement of the prediction are indicated. Finally, two specific applications are discussed.     

Analysis of bacterial communities in a municipal duck pond during a phytoplankton bloom and isolation of Anatilimnocola aggregata gen. nov., sp. nov., Lacipirellula limnantheis sp. nov. and Urbifossiella limnaea gen. nov., sp. nov. belonging to the phylum Planctomycetes

Waterbodies such as lakes and ponds are fragile environments affected by human influences. Suitable conditions can result in massive growth of phototrophs, commonly referred to as phytoplankton blooms. Such events benefit heterotrophic bacteria able to use compounds secreted by phototrophs or their biomass as major nutrient source. One example of such bacteria are Planctomycetes, which are abundant on the surfaces of marine macroscopic phototrophs; however, less data are available on their ecological roles in limnic environments. In this study, we followed a cultivation-independent deep sequencing approach to study the bacterial community composition during a cyanobacterial bloom event in a municipal duck pond. In addition to cyanobacteria, which caused the bloom event, members of the phylum Planctomycetes were significantly enriched in the cyanobacteria-attached fraction compared to the free-living fraction. Separate datasets based on isolated DNA and RNA point towards considerable differences in the abundance and activity of planctomycetal families, indicating different activity peaks of these families during the cyanobacterial bloom. Motivated by the finding that the sampling location harbours untapped bacterial diversity, we included a complementary cultivation-dependent approach and isolated and characterized three novel limnic strains belonging to the phylum Planctomycetes.     

Effective Part-Task Training as Evidence of Distinct Adaptive Processes with Different Time Scales

For some types of visuo-motor transformations like large visuo-motor rotations or the complex transformation of a sliding first-order lever, distinct adaptive processes have been hypothesized that produce a rapid, discrete approximation of the transformation and a slow, graded fine tuning, respectively. Here we investigate whether part-task training of only the second of these processes, namely the fine tuning, transfers to the subsequent performance in a condition with the full transformation of the sliding first-order lever. Therefore, we compared performance of three groups with different practice conditions during transfer to the full transformation. While two groups only practiced the fine tuning without the right-left inversion of the lever prior to transfer, a third group practiced the full lever transformation. Our results show a positive, but less than perfect transfer of the isolated practice of the fine tuning on performance with the full transformation. For the fine tuning itself, transfer was not reliably different from being perfect. The observation that the fine tuning can be acquired separately and added to the later adaptation to the left-right inversion of the lever supports the notion that these slow and fast processes progress rather independently. The additional finding that the preceding acquisition of the fine tuning also facilitates the subsequent rapid process could be due to generalized learning-to-learn or to a more precise assignment of movement errors to the process from which they originate.     

Effect of high temperature and water stress on pollen germination and spikelet fertility in rice

In future climates, rice could more frequently be subjected to simultaneous high temperature and water stress during sensitive developmental stages such as flowering. In this study, five rice genotypes were exposed to high temperature, water stress and combined high temperature and water stress during flowering to quantify their response through spikelet fertility. Microscopic analyses revealed significant differences in anther dehiscence between treatments and genotypes, with a moderately high association with the number of germinated pollen grains on the stigma. There was a strong relationship between spikelet fertility and the number of germinated pollen on stigmas. Although, all three stress treatments resulted in spikelet sterility, high-temperature stress caused the highest sterility in all five genotypes. A cumulative linear decline in spikelet fertility with increasing duration of independent high-temperature stress and in combination with water stress was quantified. Better anther dehiscence, higher in vivo pollen germination, and higher spikelet fertility were observed in both the N22 accessions compared with IR64, Apo and Moroberekan under high temperature, water stress and combined stress, indicating its ability to tolerate multiple abiotic stresses.     

Comprehensive report on the prevalence of root-knot nematodes in the Poonch division of Azad Jammu and Kashmir,Pakistan

The present study documents the root-knot nematodes (RKN) fauna of the Poonch division in Azad Jammu and Kashmir infecting vegetables. An overall prevalence of 40% of RKN was recorded. Of the four districts investigated, maximum prevalence was recorded in district Poonch with 59%, followed by Sudhnuti with 58%. The lowest prevalence of RKN was found in districts Bagh (29%) and Haveli (33%). Out of 15 vegetables investigated, RKN was found on five crops. The highest prevalence of 37.8% was recorded on okra, followed by 31.3% on cucumber and 17.5% on tomato. RKN was less prevalent on eggplant (8.3%) and beans (7.7%). Three RKN species, that is Meloidogyne incognita, Meloidogyne javanica and Meloidogyne arenaria, were found infecting the hosts. M. javanica was found to be the most prevalent followed by M. incognita and M. arenaria. This trend was found in all the districts. Overall prevalence of M. javanica as sole population was 9% and that of M. incognita was 2%. Meloidogyne arenaria was not found in any of the fields as sole population. The prevalence of M. incognita with M. javanica or M. arenaria as mixed populations was 8% and 5%, respectively, and that of M. javanica with M. arenaria was 4%. Similarly, all the three species prevailed as mixed populations in 12% of the fields in the division. The severity of RKN infections, measured as galling index, was found to be variable within each infected field (GI 2–9). Identification of RKN species was based on the morphology of perineal patterns and confirmed by molecular SCAR and CO1 makers based identification. In conclusion, RKN were distributed in the Poonch division and M. javanica was predominant. Cucumber, okra, tomato and eggplant were severely attacked by these nematodes warranting the adoption of stringent control strategies for their management.     

Dynamics and functional relevance of ammonia-oxidizing archaea in two agricultural soils

Crucial steps in geochemical cycles are in many cases performed by more than one group of microorganisms, but the significance of this functional redundancy with respect to ecosystem functioning is poorly understood. Ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and their bacterial counterparts (AOB) are a perfect system to address this question: although performing the same transformation step, they belong to well-separated phylogenetic groups. Using pig manure amended with different concentrations of sulfadiazine (SDZ), an antibiotic that is frequently used in veterinary medicine, it was possible to affect AOB and AOA to different degrees. Addition of manure stimulated growth of AOB in both soils and, interestingly, also growth of AOA was considerably stimulated in one of the soils. The antibiotic treatments decreased the manure effect notably on AOB, whereas AOA were affected to a lower extent. Model calculations concerning the respective proportions of AOA and AOB in ammonia oxidation indicate a substantial contribution of AOA in one of the soils that further increased under the influence of SDZ, hence indicating functional redundancy between AOA and AOB.     

Opposite fates of the purine metabolite allantoin under water and nitrogen limitations in bread wheat

Plant Molecular Biology - Degradation of nitrogen-rich purines is tightly and oppositely regulated under drought and low nitrogen supply in bread wheat. Allantoin is a key target metabolite for...     

Tet repressor-tet operator contacts probed by operator DNA-modification interference studies

Contacts between tet operator DNA and Tet repressor protein are characterized by modification interference studies. The modified DNA fragments are separated into fractions with high, intermediate and low affinities for Tet repressor by polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Ethylation of the phosphates with N-ethylnitrosourea reveals 12 contacts of a repressor dimer to tet operator. Eight of these contacts appear to be important for Tet repressor binding, as judged by the strong interference at these positions, while four contacts are probably less important. All of the phosphate contacts are located on the same side of the B-DNA structure. The sequences of tet operators proposed to interact with the recognition alpha-helix of Tet repressor are TCTATC in three cases and CCTATC in one case. After methylation of N-7 with dimethylsulfate, strong interference is observed at the guanine residues at positions +/- 2. None of the N-7 functions of other guanine residues seems to be involved in tight contacts to Tet repressor. Tet repressor subunits form identical phosphate and guanine N-7 contacts with each half side of the two tet operators indicating twofold dyad symmetry of the complexes. Attempts to analyze the methylation interference at the adenine N-3 sites reveal different results for the operators. Modification of DNA fragments with diethylpyrocarbonate yields hypersensitive sites in the tet operators, indicating different local DNA structures. Carbethoxylation interference studies confirm the contacts at the purines found by methylation interference. All of the sequence-specific protein-DNA contacts detected in this study are centered at the inside four base-pairs in each tet operator half side. The contacts are discussed with respect to the structure of the repressor-operator complex.