Humpback whale abundance in the North Pacific estimated by photographic capture‐recapture with bias correction from simulation studies

We estimated the abundance of humpback whales in the North Pacific by capture‐recapture methods using over 18,000 fluke identification photographs collected in 2004–2006. Our best estimate of abundance was 21,808 (CV = 0.04). We estimated the biases in this value using a simulation model. Births and deaths, which violate the assumption of a closed population, resulted in a bias of +5.2%, exclusion of calves in samples resulted in a bias of ?10.5%, failure to achieve random geographic sampling resulted in a bias of ?0.4%, and missed matches resulted in a bias of +9.3%. Known sex‐biased sampling favoring males in breeding areas did not add significant bias if both sexes are proportionately sampled in the feeding areas. Our best estimate of abundance was 21,063 after accounting for a net bias of +3.5%. This estimate is likely to be lower than the true abundance due to two additional sources of bias: individual heterogeneity in the probability of being sampled (unquantified) and the likely existence of an unknown and unsampled breeding area (?8.7%). Results confirm that the overall humpback whale population in the North Pacific has continued to increase and is now greater than some prior estimates of prewhaling abundance.     

BLUE WHALE VISUAL AND ACOUSTIC ENCOUNTER RATES IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT

The relationship between blue whale ( Balaenoptera musculus ) visual and acoustic encounter rates was quantitatively evaluated using hourly counts of detected whales during shipboard surveys off southern California. Encounter rates were estimated using temporal, geographic, and weather variables within a generalized additive model framework. Visual encounters (2.06 animals/h, CV = 0.10) varied with subregion, Julian day, time of day, and year. Acoustic encounters of whales producing pulsed A and tonal B call sequences (song; 0.65 animals/h, CV = 0.06) varied by Julian day, survey mode (transit or stationary), and subregion, and encounters of whales producing downswept (D) calls (0.41 animals/h, CV = 0.09) varied by Julian day and the number of animals seen. Inclusion of Julian day in all models reflects the seasonal occurrence of blue whales off southern California; however, the seasonal peak in visual encounters and acoustic encounters of D calling whales (July–August) was offset from the peak in acoustic encounters of singing whales (August–September). The relationship between visual and acoustic encounter rates varied regionally, with significant differences in several northern regions. The number of whales heard D calling was positively related to the number of animals seen, whereas the number of singing whales was not related to visual encounter rate.     

REPRODUCTIVE RATES OF HUMPBACK WHALES OFF CALIFORNIA

From 1986 to 1996 we examined the reproductive rates, calving rates, and reproductive histories of mature females as part of photo-identification studies of humpback whales that feed off California, Oregon, and Washington during summer and fall. Annual reproductive rates were measured by two methods: proportion of all whales that were calves based on sightings (0.6%-5.9% per year, mean = 3.6%, SD = 1.6) and based on individually identified animals (1.1%-8.0% per year, mean = 4.1%, SD = 1.8). The reproductive rate based on sightings varied significantly by year ( G test, P < 0.001), region ( G test, P < 0.001), and by month ( G test, P < 0.05). Seventy-nine sexually mature females were identified with 97 calves out of a total of 844 known individuals over the 11-yr study. Mother-calf separation on the feeding grounds was recorded in several instances. The apparent reproductive rates of this population are considerably lower than rates of 4%–15% reported from other feeding areas for this species. Our estimates are likely biased downward because this population has been increasing at about 5% per year. Calves may have been missed due to early weaning and because of our sampling from small boats late in the season. We also found evidence of geographic segregation of mother-calf pairs within our large study area. Despite these factors, we conclude the reproductive rate of this population appears to be lower than has been reported in other areas.     

The application of GIS and spatiotemporal analyses to investigations of unusual marine mammal strandings and mortality events

In 2006–2007, an unusually high number of harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) stranded along the Washington and Oregon coastlines. Spatiotemporal analyses were used to examine their ability to detect clusters of porpoise strandings during an unusual mortality event (UME) in the Pacific Northwest using stranding location data. Strandings were evaluated as two separate populations, outer coast and inland waters. The presence of global clustering was evaluated using the Knox spatiotemporal test, and the presence of local clusters was investigated using a spatiotemporal scan statistic (space–time permutation). There was evidence of global clustering, but no local clustering, supporting the hypothesis that strandings were due to more varied etiologies instead of localized causes. Further analyses at subregional levels, and concurrently assessing environmental factors, might reveal additional geographic distribution patterns. This article describes the spatial analytical tools applied in this study and how they can help elucidate the spatiotemporal epidemiology of other UMEs and assist in determining their causes. More than one spatial analytical technique should be used if the study objective is to detect and describe clustering in time and space and to generate hypotheses regarding causation of marine mammal disease and stranding events.     

ABUNDANCE OF BLUE AND HUMPBACK WHALES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ESTIMATED BY CAPTURE-RECAPTURE AND LINE-TRANSECT METHODS

We estimated humpback and blue whale abundance from 1991 to 1997 off the west coast of the U. S. and Mexico comparing capture-recapture models based on photographically identified animals and line-transect methods from ship-based surveys. During photo-identification research we obtained 4,212 identifications of 824 humpback whales and 2,403 identifications of 908 blue whales primarily through non-systematic small-boat surveys along the coast of California, Oregon, and Washington. Line-transect surveys from NOAA ships in 1991, 1993, and 1996 covered approximately 39,000 km along the coast of Baja California, California, Oregon, and Washington out to 555 km from shore. The nearshore and clumped distribution of humpback whales allowed photographic identification from small boats to cost-effectively sample a substantial portion of the population, but made it difficult to obtain effective samples in the line-transect surveys covering broad areas. The humpback capture-recapture estimates indicated humpback whale abundance increased over the six years (from 569 to 837). The broader more offshore distribution of blue whales made it harder to obtain a representative sample of identification photographs, but was well suited to the line-transect estimates. The line-transect estimates, after correction for missed animals, indicated approximately 3,000 blue whales (CV = 0.14). Capture-recapture estimates of blue whales were lower than this: approximately 2,000 when using photographs obtained from the line-transect surveys as one of the samples. Comparison of the results from the two methods provides validation, as well as insight into potential biases associated with each method.     

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate‐related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20‐year period (1993–2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi‐decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change.     

Assessment of genetic structure among eastern North Pacific gray whales on their feeding grounds

Although most eastern North Pacific (ENP) gray whales feed in the Bering, Beaufort, and Chukchi Seas during summer and fall, a small number of individuals, referred to as the Pacific Coast Feeding Group (PCFG), show intra‐ and interseasonal fidelity to feeding areas from northern California through southeastern Alaska. We used both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and 12 microsatellite markers to assess whether stock structure exists among feeding grounds used by ENP gray whales. Significant mtDNA differentiation was found when samples representing the PCFG (n = 71) were compared with samples (n = 103) collected from animals feeding further north (F_ST = 0.012, P = 0.0045). No significant nuclear differences were detected. These results indicate that matrilineal fidelity plays a role in creating structure among feeding grounds but suggests that individuals from different feeding areas may interbreed. Haplotype diversities were similar between strata (h_PCFG = 0.945, h_Northern = 0.952), which, in combination with the low level of mtDNA differentiation identified, suggested that some immigration into the PCFG could be occurring. These results are important in evaluating the management of ENP gray whales, especially in light of the Makah Tribe's proposal to resume whaling in an area of the Washington coast utilized by both PCFG and migrating whales.