A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Genetic Screens Identify Host Factors for SARS-CoV-2 and Common Cold Coronaviruses

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Characterization of Biofilm Formation by Borrelia burgdorferi In Vitro

Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease, has long been known to be capable of forming aggregates and colonies. It was recently demonstrated that Borrelia burgdorferi aggregate formation dramatically changes the in vitro response to hostile environments by this pathogen. In this study, we investigated the hypothesis that these aggregates are indeed biofilms, structures whose resistance to unfavorable conditions are well documented. We studied Borrelia burgdorferi for several known hallmark features of biofilm, including structural rearrangements in the aggregates, variations in development on various substrate matrices and secretion of a protective extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) matrix using several modes of microscopic, cell and molecular biology techniques. The atomic force microscopic results provided evidence that multilevel rearrangements take place at different stages of aggregate development, producing a complex, continuously rearranging structure. Our results also demonstrated that Borrelia burgdorferi is capable of developing aggregates on different abiotic and biotic substrates, and is also capable of forming floating aggregates. Analyzing the extracellular substance of the aggregates for potential exopolysaccharides revealed the existence of both sulfated and non-sulfated/carboxylated substrates, predominately composed of an alginate with calcium and extracellular DNA present. In summary, we have found substantial evidence that Borrelia burgdorferi is capable of forming biofilm in vitro. Biofilm formation by Borrelia species might play an important role in their survival in diverse environmental conditions by providing refuge to individual cells.     

Aerobiology: An ecological indicator for early detection and control of fungal outbreaks in caves

Aerobiology of caves is still in its infancy. At present, no clear information has been generated on the limits of acceptance of fungal spores in air which permit classification of the atmosphere of a cave as not dangerous for the conservation of rock-art paintings. We had the unique opportunity to visit and sample different caves in Spain and France, under different managements. We obtained a collection of data related with contamination episodes that permitted the formulation of a tentative index of fungal hazard in show caves. This is supported by the concentration of fungal spores in the cave air, the knowledge of the cave history and management, and a detailed survey of the different halls of the caves. The index classifies the risks into five categories: category 1 identifies a cave without fungal problems, category 2 is an alarm signal for caves, category 3 is a cave threatened by fungi, category 4 is assigned to a cave already affected by fungi, and category 5 is a cave with an irreversible ecological disturbance. This index, a working hypothesis, is launched to promote interest and forum discussion and should be validated by the scientific community after being updated with more surveys and cave analyses carried out under different managements and with different contamination episodes.     

Cellular Changes in Blood Indicate Severe Respiratory Disease during Influenza Infections in Mice

Influenza A infection is a serious threat to human and animal health. Many of the biological mechanisms of the host-pathogen-interactions are still not well understood and reliable biomarkers indicating the course of the disease are missing. The mouse is a valuable model system enabling us to study the local inflammatory host response and the influence on blood parameters under controlled circumstances. Here, we compared the lung and peripheral changes after PR8 (H1N1) influenza A virus infection in C57BL/6J and DBA/2J mice using virus variants of different pathogenicity resulting in non-lethal and lethal disease. We monitored hematological and immunological parameters revealing that the granulocyte to lymphocyte ratio in the blood represents an early indicator of severe disease progression already two days after influenza A infection in mice. These findings might be relevant to optimize early diagnostic options of severe influenza disease and to monitor successful therapeutic treatment in humans.     

The jamming avoidance response in gymnotoid pulse-species: A mechanism to minimize the probability of pulse-train coincidence

Summary Gymnotoid electric fish with pulse-type electric organ discharges (EODs) shorten (lengthen) their EOD intervals as pulses of a slightly slower (faster) train scan their EODs (Figs. 1, 2). They thus minimize the chance of pulse coincidence by transient accelerations (decelerations) of their EOD rate.Studies in curarized preparations demonstrate that this Jamming Avoidance Response (JAR) is controlled by electroreceptive input alone and without reference to an internal electric organ pacemaker-related signal (Fig. 8). A sufficient stimulus input consists of a train of strong, EOD-like stimulus pulses (S₁), which mimic the animal's experience of its own EOD, and a train of small pulses (S₂) of slightly different repetition rate, which mimic EODs of a neighbor. Correct behavioral responses require S₁ pulses of sufficient intensity to recruit pulse-markertype receptors; also spatial and temporal patterns must closely resemble those of the animal's EOD. These features are of little significance for S₂ pulses which, while scanning S₁ pulses, only provide a small perturbation of electroreceptive feedback from S₁ pulses. Inappropriate S₁ stimulation impairs and sometimes reverses (Fig. 7) the behavioral discrimination of scan directions. The JAR is explained in terms of excitatory and inhibitory processes (Fig. 3) which are triggered by S₂ stimulation, at specific phases within the S₁ cycle (Figs. 4–6).The JAR in pulse species strongly resembles the JAR in wave-species (Bullock et al., 1972) and could be considered an evolutionary ancestor of the latter. It is a response to a particular novelty in electroreceptive feedback.We thank Drs. T.H. Bullock, C. Hopkins and an anonymous referee for most helpful criticism. This research was supported by NSF grand BMS74-18640 and NIMH grant PHSMH-2614901 to W.H. and NIH grant/ROI NS 12337-01 to J.B.     

Platform Engineering of Corynebacterium glutamicum with Reduced Pyruvate Dehydrogenase Complex Activity for Improved Production of l-Lysine,l-Valine,and 2-Ketoisovalerate

Exchange of the native Corynebacterium glutamicum promoter of the aceE gene, encoding the E1p subunit of the pyruvate dehydrogenase complex (PDHC), with mutated dapA promoter variants led to a series of C. glutamicum strains with gradually reduced growth rates and PDHC activities. Upon overexpression of the l-valine biosynthetic genes ilvBNCE, all strains produced l-valine. Among these strains, C. glutamicum aceE A16 (pJC4 ilvBNCE) showed the highest biomass and product yields, and thus it was further improved by additional deletion of the pqo and ppc genes, encoding pyruvate:quinone oxidoreductase and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase, respectively. In fed-batch fermentations at high cell densities, C. glutamicum aceE A16 Δpqo Δppc (pJC4 ilvBNCE) produced up to 738 mM (i.e., 86.5 g/liter) l-valine with an overall yield (Y_P/S) of 0.36 mol per mol of glucose and a volumetric productivity (Q_P) of 13.6 mM per h [1.6 g/(liter × h)]. Additional inactivation of the transaminase B gene (ilvE) and overexpression of ilvBNCD instead of ilvBNCE transformed the l-valine-producing strain into a 2-ketoisovalerate producer, excreting up to 303 mM (35 g/liter) 2-ketoisovalerate with a Y_P/S of 0.24 mol per mol of glucose and a Q_P of 6.9 mM per h [0.8 g/(liter × h)]. The replacement of the aceE promoter by the dapA-A16 promoter in the two C. glutamicum l-lysine producers DM1800 and DM1933 improved the production by 100% and 44%, respectively. These results demonstrate that C. glutamicum strains with reduced PDHC activity are an excellent platform for the production of pyruvate-derived products.