Virtual traumatology of pregnant women: The PRegnant car Occupant Model for Impact Simulations (PROMIS)

This study report documents the development of a finite element (FE) model for analyzing trauma in pregnant women involved in road accidents and help the design of a specific safety device. The model is representative of a 50th percentile pregnant woman at 26 weeks of pregnancy in sitting position. To achieve this, the HUMOS 2 model, which has been validated in a wide range of dynamic tests, was scaled to the morphology of a woman in the 50th percentile and coupled with a model of gravid uterus. During scaling, special attention was paid to the pelvic region which is known to differ considerably in morphological terms between men and women. The gravid uterus model includes a placenta, a fetus, uterosacral ligaments and the amniotic fluid by means of fluid structure interaction formulation. The uterus and the female model were coupled using an original method whereby the growth of an uterus was simulated to compress the abdominal organs in a realistic manner. The model was validated based on experimental tests described in the literature. Additional tests based on abdominal loadings with a seatbelt on Post Mortem Human Surrogates (PMHS) coupled to silicone uterus were also performed.     

ESTIMATING NATURAL MORTALITY RATE IN REPRODUCTIVELY ACTIVE FEMALE SOUTHERN RIGHT WHALES, EUBALAENA AUSTRALIS

Cow-calf pairs of southern right whales on the South African coast have been photographed in aerial surveys in October each year since 1979. In this paper 469 resightings of 177 individually identified cows photographed in the first six years of surveys have been analyzed in two ways to produce estimates of natural mortality rate. Both methods assume that all females calve either two, three, or four years after their previous calf. In Method A there is assumed to be no systematic trend with time in the probability of a female being photographed on each calving occasion. Natural logarithms of the numbers photographed 2-4, 5-7, 8-10, etc. yr after being first seen are regressed against time, the slope of which provides an estimate of natural mortality rate of 0.0255 ± 0.0071. The intercept value for this regression provides an estimate of the detection probability, or 0.769 ± 0.011. In Method B it is assumed that if a female has not been photographed for at least nine years then it is dead. Annual mortality estimates are obtained from the proportional reduction in the numbers of females known to be alive at each three-year interval after being first photographed, up to at least 6-8 yr from the present. Method B produces an estimate of natural mortality of 0.0260 ± 0.0190 (corrected to 0.0227 ± 0.0192 using the average detection probability). Both methods may be subject to various biases that tend to inflate estimates of natural mortality.     

Association of glycosylated haemoglobin HbA1c levels with outcome in patients with COVID-19: A Retrospective Study

Patients with hyperglycemia tend to be susceptible to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the association of HbA1c level with outcome of COVID-19 patients was unclear. We performed a retrospective study of 2880 cases of COVID-19 admitted in Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, China, among which 922 had detected the HbA1c levels. We found that COVID-19 patients with either lower levels of HbAlc (3%-4.9%) or higher levels of HbAlc (≥6%) were associated with elevated all-cause mortality. Meanwhile, we observed that HbAlc levels were highly correlated with haemoglobin (Hb) and total cholesterol (TC) (P < .0001), moderately correlated with albumin (ALB) and high-sensitive C reaction protein (hs-CRP) (0.0001 < P<.001), and relatively low correlated with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) (.001 < P<.01). These associated cofactors might together contribute to the clinical outcome of COVID-19 patients. Furthermore, the mortality was higher in COVID-19 patients with newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus (DM) compared with COVID-19 patients with history of DM. Moreover, in patients with history of DM, the mortality was decreased in patients treated with anti-hyperglycaemic drugs. In summary, our data showed that the in-hospital mortality was increased in COVID-19 patients with lower or higher levels of HbAlc. Meanwhile, initiation of appropriate anti-hyperglycaemic treatment might improve the clinical outcome in COVID-19 patients.     

The past, present and future of childhood malaria mortality in Africa

During the past few years, there has been a historic series of declarations of renewed commitment to malaria control in Africa. Whether the burden of malaria is increasing in Africa is a moot point. This article attempts to re-construct the evidence for the trends in childhood mortality as a result of Plasmodium falciparum infection over the last century in Africa.     

POPULATION ECOLOGY OF SEALS: RETROSPECTIVE and PROSPECTIVE VIEWS

This review focuses on population ecology, with critical accounts of past work and future possibilities in age determination, body growth and condition, estimating abundances, mortality rates and lifespans, reproduction, comparative life histories, population dynamics, population modelling and seals in ecosystems. We suggest ways to reduce errors in age determination and to improve methods of obtaining and presenting growth data. Generalized von Bertalanffy growth equations are promoted as a basis for analysing species differences and intra-population variation in body lengths. Indices other than blubber thickness may be better for following body condition. Catch-effort and survival-index methods of estimating abundances have limited applicability, total counts are only locally useful, and sample counts may only be accurate for scattered, ice-breeding species. Some new techniques for population indices are promising. Pre-adult mortality remains difficult to assess. Although not always recognized, adult mortality rates do increase with age, as well described by Gompertz functions. Existing estimates of lifespans are unreliable, and a new approach is outlined. There are methodological problems in estimating ages of maturity. Corpora albicantia should not be used for back-extrapolation, and more study is needed of use of teeth annuli as indicators of maturity. Age-specific proportions of females parous based on reproductive tracts may disagree with proportions recruited in breeding groups, suggesting that the former may often be in error. Allometric relationships among body sizes and life-history variables need more reliable data, especially since the residuals of such relationships are of greatest interest. Brain size may be a better scalar. Direct evidence of density dependence in population growth of seals is sparse. Early survival has been more widely shown to be density-dependent, but only among polygynous species where crowding on land may be a byproduct of sexual selection; there is as yet no good evidence of trophic restraints. Evidence of density dependence of ages of maturity is generally unconvincing. Predation, especially by sharks, may be critical in some species. Characteristics of equilibrium populations might profitably be sought in mass remains in middens and historic kill sites. More attention should be paid to the search for density-independent influences. Supposed impacts of fisheries and pollutions are not wholly convincing. Natural epidemics may keep some populations below resource or space saturation, and some high-latitude species may show large year-to-year variations in recruitment and abundances. Evidence for such density-independent effects should be sought in residuals of growth curves and in teeth layers. Although surplus yield and production/biomass models have been tried, realistic pinniped models must be completely age-structured and time-dependent. Simple models have questionably assumed stationarity to derive life-history parameters. The best available estimates of density dependence of such parameters give no resolution when extrapolated toward equilibrium, and only limited efforts have been made to introduce stochasticity. Better data, not improved model structures, are needed for better understanding. Recent work has contradicted the assumed voraciousness of seals, but their system impacts and dependencies are not well understood. Extended Lotka-Volterra equations used to model Antarctic food webs, including seals, are merely heuristic. Fixed seal biomasses enter as top-down, driving functions in a Bering Sea model, which accordingly cannot be used to analyse or manage their populations. Some Soviet models are tantalizing but ill-specified. The introduction of harbor seals in well-chosen lakes might give mote insights into system roles than would more elaborate modelling. We wonder if pinniped ecology is well served by too many enthusiasts operating under too many restraints.     

Phenotypic variability in nesting success among Osmia lignaria propinqua females in a glasshouse environment: (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae)

Abstract. 1. The phenotypic variability of several estimates of fitness among seventeen nesting female O.lignaria Cresson was examined in a glasshouse provided with abundant resources.
2. Females exhibited wide variation in: (a) number of nests and cells made and in their rate of construction, (b) the incidence of mortality of offspring, and (c) the percentage of male offspring produced (52–100%).
3. In confirmation of earlier field studies: (a) more offspring of both sexes were produced during the first half of the nesting season, (b) most female offspring were produced early in the nesting season, (c) most parental investment during the last half of the flight season was made in male offspring, (d) there was a decrease in offspring size with season, with females decreasing more than males, and (e) the ratio of female/male body weight was = 1.8. These results appear to be due to ageing rather than to a reduction in resource availability.
4. No relation between female size and fecundity was evident.
5. There was no evidence that small females tended to produce a greater proportion of the smaller sex (males) than did large females.
6. Smaller offspring of both sexes had a much greater probability of dying overwinter than did large offspring. However, where the sexes overlapped in size (large males, small females), almost all females died and almost all males survived. We hypothesize that as size of offspring produced declines with season, a greater proportion of males are produced because they have a much greater probability of surviving at small body sizes.     

Model life tables for the larger old world monkeys

Mortality statistics for 25 populations of the larger Old World monkeys (members of the subfamily Cercopithecinae) were evaluated with a competing hazard model of mortality. The best eight of these life tables were combined to generate a standard model life table representative of the mortality patterns of these primates. Two applications of the standard model to smooth, graduate, and compare life tables based on limited and defective data are presented.     

Analysis of the effects of cesium ions on potassium channel currents in biological membranes

Cesium ions block potassium channels in biological membranes in a voltage dependent manner. For example, external cesium blocks inward current with little or no effect on outward current. Consequently, it produces a characteristic N-shaped current-voltage relationship. We have modeled this result by single file diffusion of ions in a narrow channel spanning the membrane with a special blocking site in the channel for cesium ions. The model enables us to make detailed comparisons of the effects of cesium on potassium channels in different types of biological membranes.     

Long-term studies at a benthic station off the coast of Northumberland

Biannual sampling (March and September) has been carried out over the period 1972 to 1985 at a muddy sand station, 55 m depth, with fauna belonging to the deeper offshore edge of Petersen's Amphiura filiformis community.During the period 1974 to 1980 the community exhibited a high degree of persistence stability. This stability was lost between 1980 and 1983, with rising total numbers and biomass and changes in species ranking. There is some evidence of a downward reversal between 1984–85.Evidence suggests that the principal stabilising process is density dependent mortality mediated by competition in a food limited environment. The principal destabilising process appears to be periodic fluctuations in the organic flux to the bottom. A secondary destabilising process is clearly concerned with fluctuating winter temperature. In competitive terms, cold winters favour increased survival in the dominant species at the expense of the lesser ranked species. This process is, however, more ephemeral and subject to adjustment within the time scale of a year.     

Population dynamics of killing parasites which reproduce in the host

For a parasitic infection in human hosts a model is derived from basic assumptions on the population structure of the host, in particular mortality depending on age and parasite load, and on the reproduction and transmission of parasites. The model assumes the form of a system of partial differential equations. The paper contains proofs of local and global existence and existence and uniqueness of nontrivial stationary states, and a discussion of the relation to birth and death processes and other models for parasitic infections.