Estimating chronic wasting disease effects on mule deer recruitment and population growth

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a prion disease of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), accelerates mortality and in so doing has the potential to influence population dynamics. Although effects on mule deer survival are clear, how CWD affects recruitment is less certain. We studied how prion infection influenced the number of offspring raised to weaning per adult (≥2 yr old) female mule deer and subsequently the estimated growth rate (λ) of an infected deer herd. Infected and presumably uninfected radio-collared female deer were observed with their fawns in late summer (August-September) during three consecutive years (2006-2008) in the Table Mesa area of Boulder, Colorado, USA. We counted the number of fawns accompanying each female, then used a fully Bayesian model to estimate recruitment by infected and uninfected females and the effect of the disease on λ. On average, infected females weaned 0.95 fawns (95% credible interval=0.56-1.43) whereas uninfected females weaned 1.34 fawns (95% credible interval=1.09-1.61); the probability that uninfected females weaned more fawns than infected females was 0.93). We used estimates of prevalence to weight recruitment and survival parameters in the transition matrix of a three-age, single-sex matrix model and then used the matrix to calculate effects of CWD on λ. When effects of CWD on both survival and recruitment were included, the modeled λ was 0.97 (95% credible interval = 0.82-1.09). Effects of disease on λ were mediated almost entirely by elevated mortality of infected animals. We conclude that although CWD may affect mule deer recruitment, these effects seem to be sufficiently small that they can be omitted in estimating the influences of CWD on population growth rate.     

TRENDS IN ABUNDANCE OF ALASKA HARBOR SEALS, 1983–2001

We estimated trends in abundance of harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina richardsii ) using over dispersed, multinomial models and counts obtained during aerial surveys conducted during 1983–2001 in the Ketchikan, Sitka, Kodiak, and Bristol Bay areas of Alaska. Harbor seal numbers increased significantly at 7.4%/yr during 1983–1998 and 5.6%/yr during 1994–1998 in the Ketchikan area, and 6.6%/yr during 1993–2001 in the Kodiak area. Counts were stable (trends not significant) during 1984–2001 (0.7%/yr) and 1995–2001 (-0.4%/yr) in Sitka, and during 1998–2001 (-1.3%/yr) in Bristol Bay. The influence of covariates ( e.g. , survey date, tide height) on trend estimates was significant and varied among areas and across years, demonstrating the need to include covariates in statistical analyses to accurately estimate trend. Our increasing trend estimate for Kodiak represents the first documented increase in harbor seal numbers over a relatively expansive area in the Gulf of Alaska. However, the trend for the Gulf of Alaska stock is equivocal due to the continued decline in Prince William Sound. Similarly, the trend for the Southeast Alaska stock is equivocal based on our increasing (Ketchikan) and stable (Sitka) trend estimates, and a recent decline reported for Glacier Bay. The Bering Sea stock appears stable after a period of possible decline.     

Aerial photogrammetry of southern right whales, Eubalaena australis

Between July or August and November 1988 and 1989, 72 cow-calf pairs of right whales ( Eubalaena australis ) were measured photogrammetrically from the air off De Hoop, South Africa. Median coefficients of variation ranged from 1.29 to 4.56%, being lowest in cows and calves for measurements of total length. Fifty-seven adult cows measured from 12.37 to 15.54 m in length, with females photographed for the first time with a calf (= primiparous) being smaller than females that had been seen for the first time with a calf at least five years previously. The lengths of 72 calves ranged from 4.53 to 9.24 m, with those from primiparous females being significantly smaller than calves of multiparous females in every month except July. For 37 calves photographed on more than one occasion the growth rate averaged 2.8±0.7 cm per day, with no significant difference between growth rates of calves from primiparous and from other females, and no significant decrease in growth rate between July/September and September/November. Calves grew from an average of 40% of their mother's length in late July to 51% by mid-October. The size distribution of the adult females was no different from that of 25 adult females landed at South African whaling stations between 1911 and 1963 (after adjustment for possible differences in measurement techniques). Five near-term foetuses recovered in June-August in the same whaling operations also agree closely with the size of calves predicted for 1 August. In a comparison with 17 calves stranded or dying accidentally on the South African coast, most of the accidentally caught animals agreed closely in size with the sample of photogrammetrically measured animals, while most of the stranded animals were equal to or smaller in size than the smallest length interval in the photogrammetrically measured animals. The calves of primiparous females may therefore suffer a higher natural mortality rate than those of multiparous females.     

Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N=?73.5, 95% CI?=?64-94 in 2006; N=?50.4, 95% CI?=?49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N=?62.6, 95% CI?=?51-89 in 2006; N=?81.8, 95% CI?=?72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ=?0.93, 95% CI?=?0.74-1.17) and females (λ=?0.90, 95% CI?=?0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.     

Evaluating food availability and nest predation risk as sources of bias in aural bird surveys

ABSTRACT The use of aural surveys to estimate population parameters is widespread in avian studies. Despite efforts to increase the efficacy of this method, the potential for ecological context to bias population estimates remains largely unexplored. For example, food availability and nest predation risk can influence singing activity independent of density and, therefore, may bias aural estimates where these ecological factors vary systematically among habitats or other categories of ecological interest. We used a natural fire event in a mixed‐conifer forest that experienced variation in fire severity (low, intermediate, and high) to determine if aural surveys produce accurate density estimates of Dark‐eyed Juncos ( Junco hyemalis) independent of ecological context. During the first 2‐yr postfire, we censused junco populations in each burn type with intensive spot‐mapping and nest searching, locating 168 nests. Simultaneously, we conducted fixed‐radius point‐count surveys and estimated food availability and nest predation risk in each burn type to test whether ecological context may influence aural detection probability independent of actual density. We found no difference in nesting densities among patches burned at different severity. Arthropod food availability was inversely related to fire severity during the first postfire breeding season, but increased to higher levels across all severities during the second. In both years, aural detections were significantly greater in intermediate severity patches that consistently represented the habitat with the lowest nest predation risk. These results suggest that nest predation risk may significantly bias aural estimates of avian populations. Although traditional aural survey methods such as the Breeding Bird Survey measure habitat attributes, our findings highlight the difficulty in assessing relevant covariates in estimates of avian population. Future research must consider the potential for nest predation and other ecological factors to drive interannual or interhabitat variation in avian population estimates independent of true changes in population size.     

Estimating sika deer abundance using camera surveys

Cameras have been used throughout the world to estimate wildlife abundance and occupancy. Abundance estimates generated by camera surveys tend to be less invasive, less costly, and more accurate than other means in certain situations. We sought to expand and test the effectiveness of camera surveys on sika deer in Maryland. In 2008, we setup surveys with a 7-day pre-bait period followed by a 7-day active camera survey with 15 cameras. In 2009, we ran the cameras for the entire 14-day survey and moved cameras after each survey to determine if biases occur when using the same camera sites. During both years and all surveys, camera density was approximately 1-camera/65-ha. The abundance estimates were similar between years and estimators. In 2009, increasing photo intervals from 1-min to 5- and 10-min intervals reduced the number of pictures by 66 and 81%, respectively, while providing similar abundance estimates. We calculated the daily detection probabilities for all identifiable deer and we used radio-collared males that occurred within 2 km of the survey grid to assist in determining the optimum survey length. Detection probability did not vary between surveys in the same year, but varied between 2008 and 2009, most likely due to unlimited bait being available during 2008 surveys. Camera surveys have proven to be an accurate and cost effective means of estimating wildlife abundance and can be used successfully to determine sika deer abundance.     

THE LIFE HISTORY OF FREE-RANGING ATLANTIC SPOTTED DOLPHINS (STENELLA FRONTALIS): AGE CLASSES, COLOR PHASES, AND FEMALE REPRODUCTION

Atlantic spotted dolphins (Stenella frontalis) were observed underwater and from the surface from 1985 to 1996 and photographed through successive years. Individuals were categorized into age classes by their degree of spotting and color phases. Dolphins spent an average of 3 yr in the two-tone color phase, 5 yr in the speckled phase, 7 yr in the mottled phase and up to 10 yr or more in the fused phase.
Sex ratios were close to parity, with old adults skewed towards females and juveniles and young adults skewed towards males. The average calving interval for 24 females was 2.96 years with a range of 1–5 yr. Females whose calves survived the first year had a significantly longer calving interval (3.56 years). The ages of first parturition for five females were estimated to be 10–12 yr. The age at sexual maturation was estimated to range from 8 to 15 yr.
Pregnancy rate fluctuated annually, with an average rate of 0.25 (range 0.07–0.57). Annual average birth rate was 0.08 (range 0.07–0.14), average calf production was 0.33 (range 0.06–0.52), average fecundity was 0.23 (range 0.13–0.30), and average recruitment was 0.06 (range 0.03–0.08). Most females who lost a calf conceived the same or following year.
Lactation lasted up to 5 yr, and 45% of visibly pregnant females were also lactating. Age of first parturition was associated with the mottled color phase. Average first-year mortality rate of calves was 0.24.     

Survival of Greater Sage‐Grouse broods: survey method affects disturbance and age‐specific detection probability

Investigators rely on brood surveys to estimate annual fecundity of game birds. However, investigators often do not account for factors that influence brood detection probability nor rarely document how much females and their broods are disturbed (flush rates) during surveys, which could lead to biased survival estimates. We used 45 radio‐tagged female Greater Sage‐Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) with broods to compare detection probabilities and document disturbance among four survey methods to allow future investigators to select the method that best meets their objectives. These methods included daytime flush, daytime visual, nocturnal spotlight, and fecal surveys at nocturnal roost sites, with the latter being a novel method. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) models to compare detection probability and daily survival estimates for visual and fecal surveys of broods 0–47 d post‐hatch and a double‐survey approach to compare detection probabilities among flush, fecal, and spotlight surveys ~42 d post‐hatch when investigators often determine brood fate. From CJS models, detection probability for visual surveys increased with brood age (0.618–0.881), whereas detection probability for fecal surveys did not (0.748). Daily survival probability estimates increased with brood age and differed annually based on fecal surveys (2016: 0.978–1.000 and 2017: 0.839–0.998). We detected age‐specific daily survival probability with visual surveys (0.956–0.997), but not annual differences. Based on the double‐survey approach, detection probability was high (0.857–1.000) for all methods. We flushed ~310–750% fewer females and broods during fecal and spotlight surveys than during both types of daytime surveys. Our results highlight the need to account for detection probabilities among methods and document disturbance to hens and broods that can help investigators design surveys to minimize impacts to birds. Furthermore, our result suggest that actions to improve brood survival during the first week post‐hatch may improve local recruitment.     

Population growth rates of reef sharks with and without fishing on the great barrier reef: robust estimation with multiple models

Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing.     

Estimated calf and perinatal mortality in western North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis)

Reduced reproductive success has contributed to lack of recovery of the endangered western North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Here we examined the specific life history period from just before birth through the first year to estimate calf and perinatal losses between 1989 and 2003. The lower bound estimate (17 mortalities from 208 calving events) included documented calf mortalities and presumed deaths from serious injury or disappearance from the sighting record. The upper bound estimated potential calf losses from females with delayed first parturition (>10 yr) and shortened (2 yr) or lengthened (≥4 yr) calving intervals, if the female migrated to the calving ground during these intervals. Because cows were sighted in the calving ground predominantly in years when they were available to calve, adult females sighted there in a possible calving year without a calf were assumed to have experienced a perinatal loss. Twenty-eight potential perinatal losses were detected, bringing the upper bound of calf and perinatal mortality to 45 (3.0 calves/yr). The high frequency of lengthened calving intervals in E. glacialis suggests that abortion and neonatal losses are contributing to lower reproductive success compared to Southern Hemisphere right whales (Eubalaena australis).     

Child Mortality Estimation: Appropriate Time Periods for Child Mortality Estimates from Full Birth Histories

Background

Child mortality estimates from complete birth histories from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) surveys and similar surveys are a chief source of data used to track Millennium Development Goal 4, which aims for a reduction of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Based on the expected sample sizes when the DHS program commenced, the estimates are usually based on 5-y time periods. Recent surveys have had larger sample sizes than early surveys, and here we aimed to explore the benefits of using shorter time periods than 5 y for estimation. We also explore the benefit of changing the estimation procedure from being based on years before the survey, i.e., measured with reference to the date of the interview for each woman, to being based on calendar years.

Methods and Findings

Jackknife variance estimation was used to calculate standard errors for 207 DHS surveys in order to explore to what extent the large samples in recent surveys can be used to produce estimates based on 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-y periods. We also recalculated the estimates for the surveys into calendar-year-based estimates. We demonstrate that estimation for 1-y periods is indeed possible for many recent surveys.

Conclusions

The reduction in bias achieved using 1-y periods and calendar-year-based estimation is worthwhile in some cases. In particular, it allows tracking of the effects of particular events such as droughts, epidemics, or conflict on child mortality in a way not possible with previous estimation procedures. Recommendations to use estimation for short time periods when possible and to use calendar-year-based estimation were adopted in the United Nations 2011 estimates of child mortality.     

LONG-RANGE MOVEMENTS OF SOUTH ATLANTIC RIGHT WHALES EUBALAENA AUSTRALIS

Abstract: Movements of southern right whales between Gough Island and South Africa, and between Argentina and Tristan da Cunha, southern Brazil, and South Georgia are documented through matching of six photoidentified individuals. These include the resighting of a male in a mid-oceanic locality some 4,424 km away from (and 11 yr after) its last sighting in a coastal area where it had been seen in six of the preceding eight years, a female photographed in mid-Atlantic resighted with a calf in a coastal nursery area 2,769 km away, resightings of females with calves in different nursery areas 2,051 km apart in different years, and the first example of a link between a coastal nursery area and a feeding ground in high latitudes. The possible implications of these movements for estimates of calving interval and survival rate based on resightings in coastal waters are discussed. The potential for intermingling between populations on either side of the South Atlantic seems greater than was previously considered likely from a comparison of animals photographed in coastal waters.     

Effective population size,reproductive success and sperm precedence in the butterfly,Bicyclus anynana,in captivity

A pedigree approach is used to estimate the effective population size yn two population cages of the butterfly, Bicyclus anynana. Each cage was founded with 54 individually marked adults of each sex. Matings were recorded over a 3‐day period. Eggs were then collected from each female over a similar period before the numbers of hatching larvae were counted to assess progeny number. The males showed a higher variance in reproductive success than the females. Since about one‐quarter of all females mated more than once, we also examined the pattern of sperm precedence using molecular markers or, in separate crossing experiments, wing pattern mutants. Both instances of complete first and last male sperm precedence, as well as of sperm mixing, were found. In some crosses a ‘leakiness’ was found in which some of the early eggs laid by a female were fertilized by a male partner which was subsequently completely unsuccessful. However, the estimates of effective population size were largely unaffected by the pattern of sperm precedence. Estimates for N_e : N in each cage were close to 0.60. The possibility of obtaining comparable estimates in selected natural populations of butterflies is discussed.     

Long-term demographic fluctuations of the spur-thighed tortoise Testudo graeca in SW Spain

We assessed the dynamics of a population of spur-thighed tortoises, Testudo graeca. placed under long-term protection from human interference. We estimated demographic parameters and constructed vertical life tables based on age structures for two different study periods separated by a 12-yr interval. Average age at maturity was 6.9 yr for males and 8.5 yr for females. Clutch size varied with female size, but tended to be constant among years. Average annual female fecundity over 9 yr was 8.4 eggs and decreased significantly in years of high rainfall. Females seemed to reproduce yearly, but with a constantly low output, probably maximising both their long-term reproductive potential and the probability of producing offspring during favourable years for hatchling survival. Adult survival was high and constant between periods. Juvenile survivorship from egg to 6 yr and recruitment into the 5 8-yr-old cohorts were significantly higher in the second period. Life tables indicated a predominantly negative demographic trend for the first period, with an average population increase rate of 0.977. and an overall positive tendency for the second period, with an average increase rate of 1.091. These figures suggest that the population experienced a variation that was closer to the maximum estimates for the first period, mediated mainly by an increase in juvenile recruitment. The data indicate that, besides high adult survival rates, occasional high juvenile recruitment bouts may have an important regulatory effect on the population dynamics of Testudo graeca.     

Sex-biased survival and breeding dispersal probability in a patchy population of the Rock Sparrow Petronia petronia

Demographic parameters of the polygynous Rock Sparrow Petronia petronia were investigated in a small patchy population in the Italian Alps. The population included two distinct breeding patches that differed in altitude and breeding success. Survival parameters were estimated by capture–recapture analysis of 170 individually marked animals. At the whole population level (Cormack–Jolly Seber model), no sex difference in local survival probability was detected. We then used a multisite capture–recapture approach (Arnason–Schwarz model) to investigate patch-specific survival probability and between-patch dispersal rate conditional on survival. Female local survival in the higher-altitude patch (mean ± se: 0.54 ± 0.04) was significantly greater than in the other patch (0.37 ± 0.04), probably because permanent emigration from the study area was greater. In the higher-altitude patch, breeding dispersal was constrained by the altitude limit and breeding movements were directed toward the patch at lower altitude. The probability of changing patch in the next breeding season was significantly higher for females (range 0.16–0.21) than for males (0.01–0.03). Breeding success varied between years and patches, being lower in the patch where frequency of polygamy and female local mortality were higher.     

Estimation and limitation of numbers of floaters in a Eurasian Sparrowhawk population

Over a 20‐year period, the numbers of Eurasian Sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus nests found in a 200 km² area in south Scotland remained relatively stable (mean 33.3 pairs, CV = 10.6%). Nest numbers fluctuated from year to year in a manner expected of a population subject to density‐dependent regulation. The numbers of non‐breeders (floaters) could not be counted directly, but the number of female floaters was estimated, using known mortality rates, from the numbers of females recruited to the breeding population each year at different ages. Female floater numbers were estimated by two methods: Method A assumed that birds bred for the first time in their first, second or third year, in the same ratio as they were found breeding for the first time in the study area; and Method B assumed that all third‐year birds found breeding for the first time in the study area had bred previously, unknown to us, outside the area. Under Method A, floaters consisted of some 1‐year and some 2‐year birds; while under Method B, floaters consisted only of some 1‐year birds. Under both methods, the estimated number of female floaters fluctuated greatly from year to year, but under Method A they averaged 0.90 per female breeder, and under Method B they averaged 0.28 per female breeder. The Method B estimate was most consistent with other data and with the finding that some birds found breeding in the study area were likely to have bred previously outside the area (because of territory changes). Moreover, the mean and variance in female floater numbers estimated by Method B were similar in magnitude to the values obtained in a simulation model. In this model, breeding density was given a fixed ceiling, while breeding success was allowed to vary from year to year within the limits observed in the study area. It was concluded that (a) recruitment of floaters to the breeding sector was density dependent with respect to breeder numbers, i.e. broadly speaking, floaters filled gaps in the territorial system left by the deaths and movements of established breeders; and (b) floater numbers themselves were probably not regulated in a density dependent manner, but depended on whatever was the balance between annual additions (from reproduction and immigration) and subtractions (from mortality, emigration and entry to the breeding sector).     

Mark‐recapture modeling accounting for state uncertainty provides concurrent estimates of survival and fecundity in a protected harbor seal population

Harbor seal breeding behavior and habitats constrain opportunities for individual‐based studies, and no current estimates of both survival and fecundity exist for any of the populations studied worldwide. As a result, the drivers underlying the variable trends in abundance exhibited by harbor seal populations around the world remain uncertain. We developed an individual‐based study of harbor seals in northeast Scotland, whereby data were collected during daily photo‐identification surveys throughout the pupping seasons between 2006 and 2011. However, a consequence of observing seals remotely meant that information on sex, maturity‐stage, or breeding status was not always available. To provide unbiased estimates of survival rates we conditioned initial release of individuals on the first time sex was known to estimate sex‐specific survival rates, while a robust design multistate model accounting for uncertainty in breeding status was used to estimate reproductive rate of multiparous and ≥3‐yr‐old females. Survival rates were estimated at 0.95 (95% CI = 0.91–0.97) for females and 0.92 (0.83–0.96) for males, while reproductive rate was estimated at 0.89 (0.75–0.95) for multiparous and 0.69 (0.64–0.74) for ≥3‐yr‐old females. Stage‐based population modeling indicated that this population should be recovering, even under the current shooting quotas implemented by the recent management plan.     

Gender performance in a cultivated cohort of the cycad Zamia integrifolia (Zamiaceae)

A progeny of the native Florida cycad Zamia integrifolia grown from seeds planted in 1986 was monitored until 1995 to record mortality and the nature and time of expression of primary and secondary sex characters. In addition to gender-specific cone morphologies, males and females differed in secondary sex characters such as age at first cone production, frequency of cone production, mean cone numbers in second and later coning episodes, and, in older plants, mean leaf and branch numbers. Gender differences expressed themselves at different stages in the life history: their nature and extent varied during the years following sexual maturation. By 1995, 46% of the plants in the progeny had died, most of them before producing cones. Prior to 1988 the mean leaf number of plants that died did not differ from that of survivors, but the mean leaf number of plants dying between 1988 and 1989 was 0.4 times that of the survivors during that period, suggesting reduced vigor prior to death. Mean age at first cone production was 5.8 yr for males and 6.6 yr for females. Mean dry masses of individual male cones increased between the first and second coning episodes, but not between the second and third coning episodes. Mean dry masses of the entire cone crop of individual males increased through the third coning episode due to an increase in mean cone number per episode, but mean cone number was unchanged between the third and fourth coning episodes. Mean dry mass of unpollinated female cones did not change between the first and second coning episodes; mean cone numbers did not change between the first and third coning episodes. After the first coning episode, males produced higher mean cone numbers than females. By 1995, the mean dry mass of an individual male's cone crop was greater than that of a female. Coning frequency of males was 1.7 times greater than that of unpollinated females, suggesting a gender difference in the genetic control of coning frequency. Coning frequency of females pollinated 1 or 2 yr previously was reduced compared with that of unpollinated females. Cone production did not affect subsequent leaf production by either gender. Mean leaf numbers increased in some years and not in others. Mean leaf numbers of males and females did not differ prior to cone production. After cone production mean leaf numbers of males were greater than of females. Mean age of males producing first branches was 6.3 yr, with a mean of 2.5 first branches per plant. Mean age of females producing first branches was 7.7 yr, with a mean of 2.5 first branches per plant. By 1995 the mean branch number of males was 5.7 per plant and of females was 2.7 per plant. Between 1993 and 1995 the mean branch number of males and females increased incrementally, but mean leaf numbers did not change. In early years of branching, leaf number increased with branch number; higher mean leaf numbers of males of an age class thus reflected their earlier branching. Males produced first cones earlier than females. Since branch production was associated with cone production, higher branch numbers of males in an age class reflected their earlier first cone production. In 1995 the sex ratio of known males and females in the progeny was 1:1, with a few individuals not having produced cones by that year.     

Modelling heterogeneity in detection probabilities in land and aerial abundance surveys in humpback whales (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Megaptera novaeangliae</Emphasis>)

The effective management and conservation of animal populations relies on statistically-sound and replicable surveys to obtain estimates of abundance and assess trends. Surveys of cetaceans, such as humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae, are difficult to conduct and are particularly affected by bias in detection probability. For example, the probability of detection of whales from land decreases substantially with increased distance from the platform. This distance effect is also true for aerial surveys, combined with the problem that animals are unavailable for detection (underwater) whilst in the field of view. We present a novel approach that combines corrected double-platform land surveys with corrected aerial surveys to obtain a robust estimate of g(0), the probability of detection on the survey line, for aerial surveys of migrating humpback whales. Several sources of heterogeneity in detection probabilities were identified within the land and aerial surveys (including group composition, bearing of first sighting, number of groups being tracked simultaneously and cloud cover). After including these into our estimate of ĝ(0), we found that only 29% of available whales are being detected on the survey line (ĝ(0) = 0.288), which is a considerably smaller estimate than many available for humpback whales using other methods. Incorporating heterogeneity into the population surveys shows that we are likely to be underestimating the population size of whales on the east coast of Australia. The implications of this result for their conservation and management in light of increased whale-human conflict is discussed.     

Three approaches to estimate wolf Canis lupus predation rates on moose Alces alces populations

We employed three different methods to estimate predation rates on moose in a newly colonized wolf territory in Norway. In the first two methods, we estimated predation rates based on the difference in calf/cow ratios outside and inside the wolf pack territory from (1) hunter observations and (2) aerial surveys. In the last method, (3) we estimated loss of calves of radio-collared cows inside and outside the wolf pack territory. The difference in mortality rates estimated between the area subject to predation and the area outside the wolf pack territory essentially constitutes the additive component of predation. We also tested the sensitivity of violating the assumptions of methods 1 and 2 related to equal fecundity and mortality because of other factors than predation inside and outside the wolf pack territory. Predation rates varied considerably between years and methods used, with hunter observations (method 1) giving the lowest and aerial surveys (method 2) giving the highest estimates. Method 3 (radio telemetry) was the most direct assessment of predation and probably the best approach to estimate predation rates in moose. However, all three methods show the same yearly changes and may therefore be appropriate to question trends trough time or between areas.