Praying for Drought: Persistent Vulnerability and the Politics of Patronage in Ceará, Northeast Brazil

ABSTRACT   The phrase persistent vulnerability reflects the enduring relationship of the rural population in Ceará with a highly variable climate. Persistence underscores the historical and unyielding nature of this vulnerability. Yet contrary to once-catastrophic rates of mortality etched in a public consciousness, no one dies from severe droughts and few people flee them as in the past. Government relief and social transfers have become the institutionalized form of adaptation, giving way to the counterintuitive reality that drought stabilizes the food and income supply for poor people. We analyze how maladaptive risk reduction, which is embedded in clientilistic social relations, undermines resilience, and we examine pathways toward a more sustainable adaptive relationship.     

Small marine pelagic fish and the threat of fishing; are they endangered?

Evidence of the collapse and recovery of major marine fisheries for pelagic fish species is reviewed, distinguishing the influence of fishing compared with natural (environmental) effects. In one only of the best documented cases (Icelandic spring-spawning herring) has the stock failed to reappear, after 20 years. Several others, e.g. California sardine, have persisted at 1/000th or possibly less of their peak size for some years before beginning to recover. Fishing has been the main cause of collapse in most but not all cases, due initially to the escalation of catchability as stock size decreases–a phenomenon characteristic of fisheries for pelagic species due to their shoaling habit, ease of detection and vulnerability to modern fishing methods. It is concluded that although the threat of fishing to the continuity of the species is remote, excessive depletion (although avoidable by firm and timely management) is potentially able to cause temporary disappearance of local stock and disruption of the ecosystem.     

Seagrass ecosystem multifunctionality under the rise of a flagship marine megaherbivore

Large grazers (megaherbivores) have a profound impact on ecosystem functioning. However, how ecosystem multifunctionality is affected by changes in megaherbivore populations remains poorly understood. Understanding the total impact on ecosystem multifunctionality requires an integrative ecosystem approach, which is especially challenging to obtain in marine systems. We assessed the effects of experimentally simulated grazing intensity scenarios on ecosystem functions and multifunctionality in a tropical Caribbean seagrass ecosystem. As a model, we selected a key marine megaherbivore, the green turtle, whose ecological role is rapidly unfolding in numerous foraging areas where populations are recovering through conservation after centuries of decline, with an increase in recorded overgrazing episodes. To quantify the effects, we employed a novel integrated index of seagrass ecosystem multifunctionality based upon multiple, well-recognized measures of seagrass ecosystem functions that reflect ecosystem services. Experiments revealed that intermediate turtle grazing resulted in the highest rates of nutrient cycling and carbon storage, while sediment stabilization, decomposition rates, epifauna richness, and fish biomass are highest in the absence of turtle grazing. In contrast, intense grazing resulted in disproportionally large effects on ecosystem functions and a collapse of multifunctionality. These results imply that (i) the return of a megaherbivore can exert strong effects on coastal ecosystem functions and multifunctionality, (ii) conservation efforts that are skewed toward megaherbivores, but ignore their key drivers like predators or habitat, will likely result in overgrazing-induced loss of multifunctionality, and (iii) the multifunctionality index shows great potential as a quantitative tool to assess ecosystem performance. Considerable and rapid alterations in megaherbivore abundance (both through extinction and conservation) cause an imbalance in ecosystem functioning and substantially alter or even compromise ecosystem services that help to negate global change effects. An integrative ecosystem approach in environmental management is urgently required to protect and enhance ecosystem multifunctionality.     

Enhancing the structural diversity between forest patches—A concept and real-world experiment to study biodiversity,multifunctionality and forest resilience across spatial scales

Intensification of land use by humans has led to a homogenization of landscapes and decreasing resilience of ecosystems globally due to a loss of biodiversity, including the majority of forests. Biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) research has provided compelling evidence for a positive effect of biodiversity on ecosystem functions and services at the local (α-diversity) scale, but we largely lack empirical evidence on how the loss of between-patch β-diversity affects biodiversity and multifunctionality at the landscape scale (γ-diversity). Here, we present a novel concept and experimental framework for elucidating BEF patterns at α-, β-, and γ-scales in real landscapes at a forest management-relevant scale. We examine this framework using 22 temperate broadleaf production forests, dominated by Fagus sylvatica. In 11 of these forests, we manipulated the structure between forest patches by increasing variation in canopy cover and deadwood. We hypothesized that an increase in landscape heterogeneity would enhance the β-diversity of different trophic levels, as well as the β-functionality of various ecosystem functions. We will develop a new statistical framework for BEF studies extending across scales and incorporating biodiversity measures from taxonomic to functional to phylogenetic diversity using Hill numbers. We will further expand the Hill number concept to multifunctionality allowing the decomposition of γ-multifunctionality into α- and β-components. Combining this analytic framework with our experimental data will allow us to test how an increase in between patch heterogeneity affects biodiversity and multifunctionality across spatial scales and trophic levels to help inform and improve forest resilience under climate change. Such an integrative concept for biodiversity and functionality, including spatial scales and multiple aspects of diversity and multifunctionality as well as physical and environmental structure in forests, will go far beyond the current widely applied approach in forestry to increase resilience of future forests through the manipulation of tree species composition.     

Hyposensitive canopy conductance renders ecosystems vulnerable to meteorological droughts

Increased meteorological drought intensity with rising atmospheric demand for water (hereafter vapor pressure deficit [VPD]) increases the risk of tree mortality and ecosystem dysfunction worldwide. Ecosystem-scale water-use strategy is increasingly recognized as a key factor in regulating drought-related ecosystem responses. However, the link between water-use strategy and ecosystem vulnerability to meteorological droughts is poorly established. Using the global flux observations, historic hydroclimatic data, remote-sensing products, and plant functional-trait archive, we identified potentially vulnerable ecosystems, examining how ecosystem water-use strategy, quantified by the percentage bias (δ) of the empirical canopy conductance sensitivity to VPD relative to the theoretical value, mediated ecosystem responses to droughts. We found that prevailing soil water availability substantially impacted δ in dryland regions where ecosystems with insufficient soil moisture usually showed conservative water-use strategy, while ecosystems in humid regions exhibited more pronounced climatic adaptability. Hyposensitive and hypersensitive ecosystems, classified based on δ falling below or above the theoretical sensitivity, respectively, achieved similar net ecosystem productivity during droughts, employing different structural and functional strategies. However, hyposensitive ecosystems, risking their hydraulic system with a permissive water-use strategy, were unable to recover from droughts as quickly as hypersensitive ones. Our findings highlight that processed-based models predicting current functions and future performance of vegetation should account for the greater vulnerability of hyposensitive ecosystems to intensifying atmospheric and soil droughts.     

Five fundamental ways in which complex food webs may spiral out of control

Theory suggests that increasingly long, negative feedback loops of many interacting species may destabilize food webs as complexity increases. Less attention has, however, been paid to the specific ways in which these ‘delayed negative feedbacks’ may affect the response of complex ecosystems to global environmental change. Here, we describe five fundamental ways in which these feedbacks might pave the way for abrupt, large-scale transitions and species losses. By combining topological and bioenergetic models, we then proceed by showing that the likelihood of such transitions increases with the number of interacting species and/or when the combined effects of stabilizing network patterns approach the minimum required for stable coexistence. Our findings thus shift the question from the classical question of what makes complex, unaltered ecosystems stable to whether the effects of, known and unknown, stabilizing food-web patterns are sufficient to prevent abrupt, large-scale transitions under global environmental change.     

韧性城市研究综述——基于城市复杂系统视角

在全球气候变化与持续城市化的背景下,增强城市韧性是提升城市应急管理能力,实现城市系统可持续发展的重要途径。明确城市韧性的内涵、核心要素及相互作用机理,开展城市系统韧性测度与城市系统模拟,对提升变化环境下城市系统恢复力与韧性水平,缓解变化环境对城市系统运行稳定性冲击压力具有重要意义。基于文献与资料分析,全面解析韧性城市核心概念与各国韧性城市建设、管理与研究实践。此外,研究从城市复杂系统视角探究变化环境对城市系统影响机制、测度方法与系统模拟路径。研究为韧性城市理论、方法与实证研究提供了参考,并为我国韧性城市建设实践提供决策依据与政策建议。     

Relationship between grass species richness and ecosystem stability in Kruger National Park, South Africa

The relationship between grass species richness and ecosystem stability was investigated in the Kruger National Park. A total of 135 489 individual grasses were identified from 189 sites spread across 19 485 km² of savanna biome, making this one of the largest studies of its kind. At each site, grass percentage abundance and standing crop were measured at one year intervals to provide an index of ecosystem function. A severe drought that affected the region between 1991 and 1993 provided a convenient perturbation. At the height of the drought, mean species richness declined by 12.7% while standing crop declined by 38.1%, from 3199 to 1979 kg ha^?1. Percentage grass abundance declined to 87.5% of its pre‐drought value. After the drought had passed species richness, standing crop and percentage abundance recovered to 92.1%, 113.8% and 92.8% of their pre‐perturbation values, respectively. Statistical analysis of these responses revealed that grass assemblages of low species richness were more resistant to drought than assemblages of high species richness. Species‐poor sites also showed better recovery from perturbation after the drought had passed. These findings suggest that ecosystem stability may be negatively related to grass species richness in South African savanna grasslands.