农村地区慢性病流行现状及控制管理对策分析

慢性病严重危害人群健康,已成为疾病负担的主要原因。本文通过三间分布（人群分布、地区分布、时间分布）发现,我国农村地区慢性病患病率随年龄增加而增高;发病年龄提前;年龄越小,增幅越大;不同的慢性病在性别间呈现不同的发病趋势;农村居民现代医学知识缺乏,健康意识淡薄,对慢性病的知晓率、治疗率和控制卒低;农村地区经济收入低,医疗保障差,慢性病会对其经济上造成沉重的负担;农村的慢性病患病率增长已经快于城市,且在死因顺位中上升。针对目前我国农村地区慢性痛的这些流行现状,进一步分析了农村地区慢性病防治存在的主要问题,并提出了控制对策及管理方法。     

Incorporating retrospective data into an analysis of time to illness

For studies of time to illness, the prospective cohort study is, in general, the method of choice. When the time of origin is known for all subjects, then a prevalent cohort study in which individuals are recruited at variable times after the start of the illness process is a suitable alternative. Often, when a prevalent cohort is being formed, data may also be available on individuals who are already ill but are alive. The incorporation of such data, which is practically appealing to many researchers, is discussed. The nature of the required assumptions and the need also to model the illness to death process are illustrated. Full likelihood and pseudolikelihood techniques are outlined and compared with each other and with the use of only prevalent cohort data in a small simulation study. An example based on an HIV seroconverter study is discussed for illustration. The full likelihood method is seen to be too complex for general application. The use of pseudolikelihoods is easier to implement. If there is reliable information on initiating event times and recruitment strategies are well defined, then the incorporation of retrospective data may be beneficial. In other situations, their incorporation is too problematic to be recommended.*To whom correspondence should be addressed.     

黄淮海北部地区大豆育成品种对黄淮海主要SMV流行株系的抗性评价

采用人工接种方法研究了166份黄淮海北部地区近年来生产上种植品种及近期育成品种(系)对SMV的抗性,利用黄淮海地区SMV流行株系SC3、SC6、SC7、SC11以及混合4个株系进行了抗性鉴定,从客观上评价了上述品种(系)的抗性。结果显示:对4个株系均表现抗病(中抗、高抗和免疫)的共82份,占49.4%;其中对3个株系表现高抗或免疫的32份,占19.3%;对4个株系表现高抗或免疫的23份,占13.9%。对混合株系表现抗病的108份,占65.1%。其中表现免疫的45份,占27.1%,表现高抗的29份,占17.5%。对4个株系和混合株系均表现抗病的62份,占37.3%;表现免疫和高抗的14份,占8.4%。近年育成品种对SC3、SC7株系较早期育成品种的抗性显著增强;来自河北、北京、山西的品种抗性较好,病情指数整体较低。鉴定筛选出对接种的4个株系及混合株系均表现免疫的品种冀豆9号和石豆6号,可作为抗病育种的重要抗源。本研究还发现部分品种对接种的4个株系和混合株系表现出抗性差异,表明SMV株系间存在着明显的互作。     

农村地区慢性病流行现状及控制管理对策分析

慢性病严重危害人群健康,已成为疾病负担的主要原因.本文通过三间分布(人群分布、地区分布、时间分布)发现,我国农村地区慢性病患病率随年龄增加而增高;发病年龄提前;年龄越小,增幅越大;不同的慢性病在性别间呈现不同的发病趋势;农村居民现代医学知识缺乏,健康意识淡薄,对慢性病的知晓率、治疗率和控制率低;农村地区经济收入低,医疗保障差,慢性病会对其经济上造成沉重的负担;农村的慢性病患病率增长已经快于城市,且在死因顺位中上升.针对目前我国农村地区慢性病的这些流行现状,进一步分析了农村地区慢性病防治存在的主要问题,并提出了控制对策及管理方法.     

猕猴桃细菌性溃疡病流行预测初探

对猕猴桃溃疡病流行分析表明,影响该病发生严重程度y的生态因子是3月中下旬降水x1和1月份均温x2,其模型是y=2.1359 0.0107x1-0.6061x2;猕猴桃溃疡病发生流行的主导因子为冬季及初春旬均温和降水量的相对变差,并且由此得到病害流行的回归方程为：y=-8.127 22.739x-13.254x^2,经检验,该方程达极显著水平。     

Estimating Propensity Scores and Causal Survival Functions Using Prevalent Survival Data

Summary This article develops semiparametric approaches for estimation of propensity scores and causal survival functions from prevalent survival data. The analytical problem arises when the prevalent sampling is adopted for collecting failure times and, as a result, the covariates are incompletely observed due to their association with failure time. The proposed procedure for estimating propensity scores shares interesting features similar to the likelihood formulation in case‐control study, but in our case it requires additional consideration in the intercept term. The result shows that the corrected propensity scores in logistic regression setting can be obtained through standard estimation procedure with specific adjustments on the intercept term. For causal estimation, two different types of missing sources are encountered in our model: one can be explained by potential outcome framework; the other is caused by the prevalent sampling scheme. Statistical analysis without adjusting bias from both sources of missingness will lead to biased results in causal inference. The proposed methods were partly motivated by and applied to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)‐Medicare linked data for women diagnosed with breast cancer.     

Buckley-James-type estimator with right-censored and length-biased data

We present a natural generalization of the Buckley-James-type estimator for traditional survival data to right-censored length-biased data under the accelerated failure time (AFT) model. Length-biased data are often encountered in prevalent cohort studies and cancer screening trials. Informative right censoring induced by length-biased sampling creates additional challenges in modeling the effects of risk factors on the unbiased failure times for the target population. In this article, we evaluate covariate effects on the failure times of the target population under the AFT model given the observed length-biased data. We construct a Buckley-James-type estimating equation, develop an iterative computing algorithm, and establish the asymptotic properties of the estimators. We assess the finite-sample properties of the proposed estimators against the estimators obtained from the existing methods. Data from a prevalent cohort study of patients with dementia are used to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

猪瘟病毒E2基因主要抗原区的克隆及原核表达

利用反转录PCR（RT－PCR）和套式PCR（nest Polymerase Chain Reaction,nPCR)技术扩增出当前猪瘟流行毒（广西玉林株,GXYL)一中国猪瘟兔化弱毒（C－株）兔脾组织毒E2基因的主要抗原区,将其克隆到表达载体pPROEX-HTb中,获得重组质粒pPROEX-GXYL和pPROEX-C,经PCR,酶切和序列分析鉴定表明,插入的位置,大小和读码框均正确。SDS－PAGE,检测表明,经重组质业pPROEX-GXYL和pPROEX-C转化,诱导的受体菌能表达E2基因主要抗原区蛋白,Western-blot检测表明,诱导表达的抗原蛋白能与猪瘟阳性血清发生特异性反应。