空间直观景观模型LANDIS在大兴安岭呼中林区的应用

应用空间直观景观模型(LANDIS),研究有采伐和无采伐预案下大兴安岭呼中林区的森林景观的长期变化。用APACK计算每一个物种及各年龄级的分布面积。为了研究物种分布格局的变化,计算了物种分布的聚集度指数。研究结果如下：(1)在无采伐预案下。火干扰模式为低频率大面积高强度火烧;在有采伐预下,火干扰模式为高频率小面积低强度火烧;(2)在无采伐预案下,火会造成各种群分布面积的强烈波动,但是对种群的年龄结构没有很大影响;在有采伐预案下,火对种群分布面积和年龄结构都没有很大的影响;(3)采伐能完全改变各种群的年龄结构。降低种群分布的聚集度,但是对各种群的分布面积并没有很大影响;(4)在有采伐预案下,各种群为增长型种群,增长量通过采伐取走,群落处于演替的干扰顶极状态;在无采伐预案下,各种群为稳定型种群(樟子松和偃松除外),大面积高强度火烧使群落产生较大的波动。结果表明,在呼中林业局,在没有人为干扰情况下,火干扰是森林景观变化的主导因素。自从有了人为干扰,采伐开始逐渐取代火干扰成为影响森林景观变化的主导因素。空间直观景观模型的一个挑战是模型的验证。由于缺乏详细的空间数据及模型模拟中的随机性,很难通过模型模拟结果与实地调查或遥感数据的比较进行验证。通过对火模拟、物种分布和物种组成的生态或生物学实现对模型进行验证。     

空间异质性对样地数据空间外推的影响

应用模型结合的方法模拟了3个空间异质性等级预案下反应变量(气候变化下景观水平的树种分布面积)的变化情况,并分析模拟结果在预案之间的差异性,探讨了环境空间异质性对样地观测到的树种对气候变化响应向更大空间尺度外推的影响.结果表明：空间异质性在一般情况下对样地数据向土地类型尺度外推没有影响,而对样地尺度外推到海拔带尺度的影响则有较复杂的情况.对于对气候变化不敏感的树种以及非地带性树种,空间异质性对样地数据向海拔带尺度外推没有影响;对于大多数对气候变化敏感的地带性树种而言,空间异质性对样地数据向海拔带尺度外推则有影响.     

Predicting toxicity for head and neck cancer patients undergoing radiation therapy: an independent and external validation of MDASI-HN based nomogram

AimWe conducted a study to validate the MDASI-HN based nomogram, which is used to predict the acute toxicities in head and neck cancer patients undergoing radiation therapy with or without chemotherapy.BackgroundTolerance to radiation varies from patient to patient and also depends on various other factors like tumor volume, dose of radiation, chemotherapy. Predicting the toxicities allow us to identify potential candidates who are likely to have a higher toxicity and, in addition, evaluates the nomogram when done on an independent group of patients.Materials and MethodsSixty biopsy confirmed head and neck cancer patients undergoing radiation were the subjects of the study. The patients completed patient reported outcome instrument (PRO) MDASI-HN questionnaire at the beginning and at the fifth week of radiation. The baseline score obtained was used to obtain the predicted score using nomogram. The nomogram was also externally validated as per the TRIPOD guidelines.ResultsThe mean baseline, predicted and score at the fifth week were 27.28 ± 11.04, 73.33 ± 15.51 and 82.62 ± 17.67, respectively, for all sub-sites. A positive, significant correlation (p < 0.01) between the predicted score and the score at the fifth week was seen across all sub sites such as Oral cavity (p = 0.05), Oropharynx (p = 0.02), Hypo pharynx (p = 0.02) and Larynx (p = 0.02).ConclusionThe MDASI-HN questionnaire based nomogram is simple, easily doable and takes into consideration the initial symptoms as well the treatment details; thereby, it is able to predict the toxicities accurately.     

How disturbance,competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change

Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species' ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition‐induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change, disturbance and competitive interactions to produce range shifts are poorly understood. We used a physiologically based mechanistic landscape model to study these interactions in the northeastern United States. We designed a series of disturbance scenarios to represent varied disturbance regimes in terms of both disturbance extent and intensity. We simulated forest succession by incorporating climate change under a high‐emissions future, disturbances, seed dispersal, and competition using the landscape model parameterized with forest inventory data. Tree species range boundary shifts in the next century were quantified as the change in the location of the 5th (the trailing edge) and 95th (the leading edge) percentiles of the spatial distribution of simulated species. Simulated tree species range boundary shifts in New England over the next century were far below (usually <20 km) that required to track the velocity of temperature change (usually more than 110 km over 100 years) under a high‐emissions scenario. Simulated species` ranges shifted northward at both the leading edge (northern boundary) and trailing edge (southern boundary). Disturbances may expedite species' recruitment into new sites, but they had little effect on the velocity of simulated range boundary shifts. Range shifts at the trailing edge tended to be associated with photosynthetic capacity, competitive ability for light and seed dispersal ability, whereas shifts at the leading edge were associated only with photosynthetic capacity and competition for light. This study underscores the importance of understanding the role of interspecific competition and disturbance when studying tree range shifts.     

大兴安岭呼中林区虫害与火干扰交互作用的长期模拟

虫害和林火是森林生态系统的两种主要干扰类型,各种干扰在大时空尺度上存在一定的交互作用.本文采用空间直观景观模型LANDIS模拟虫害和林火在300年内的交互作用.结果表明:虫害干扰降低了细可燃物载量,提高了模拟前期(0～100 a)和中期(100～200 a)的粗可燃物载量,降低了模拟前期和中期的林火频率,不同干扰预案模拟后期(200～300 a)火烧频率的结果比较接近;虫害干扰降低了模拟前期和后期的火烧强度,增加了模拟中期的火烧强度,提高了模拟中期的森林火险等级,降低了模拟前期和后期的火险等级.人类灭火可增加虫害的发生面积,因此建议森林管理部门采取适当的防虫措施,不可只注重灭火,可以采取可燃物去除和计划火烧等方式管理林火,促进森林生态系统的可持续发展.     

A swimy locus on Y chromosome of the platyfish (Xiphophorus maculatus) is derived from a novel DNA transposon Zisupton

A swimy locus derived from a novel DNA transposon Zisupton was located on the sex determination region (SD) of Xiphophorus maculatus. The analysis of expression pattern showed that swimy was exclusively expressed in adult testis in X. maculatus. The putative 939 aa sequence contains four Zn-finger domains, such as two C2H2 type, one NFX type and one SWIM type Zn-finger domain, and one SAP DNA-binding domain. Swimy has about 7 copies per haploid X. maculatus genome with Y-specific copies located in the SD region, and become the second new W-linked marker of platyfish. Analysis of the structure and distribution of this sex-linked marker is benefit to shed new light on the evolutionary dynamics of sex chromosomes in fish.     

林火干扰对大兴安岭主要林分类型地上生物量预测的影响模拟研究

林火干扰是北方森林最主要的自然干扰之一,对北方森林地上生物量影响是一个长期的过程。因此,在预测地上生物量动态变化时需要考虑林火的影响。运用空间直观景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟大兴安岭林区林火对不同树种地上生物量预测的影响。选取研究区5种主要树种林分(兴安落叶松、樟子松、云杉、白桦和山杨),以无干扰情景为参考预案,在验证模型模拟结果的基础上,模拟林火在短期(0—50a)、中期(50—150a)和长期(150—300a)对地上生物量的定量化影响,及其对不同立地类型地上生物量的动态变化。结果表明:(1)基于森林调查数据参数化的2000年森林景观模拟结果能够较好地代表2000年真实森林景观,模拟的2010年森林林分密度和胸高断面积与2010年森林调查数据无显著性差异(P0.05),当前林火干扰机制模拟结果能够较好地与样地调查数据匹配,说明林火模拟能够代表当前研究区林火发生情况;(2)与无干扰预案相比,整个模拟时期内景观水平上林火减少了1.7—5.9 t/hm2地上生物量;(3)与无干扰预案相比,林火预案下主要树种生物量在短期、中期和长期变化显著(P0.05);(4)在不同模拟时期,林火显著地改变了地上生物量空间分布,其中以亚高山区地上生物量降低最为明显。研究可为长期森林管理以及森林可持续发展提供参考。     

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China

In the past three decades, our global climate has been experiencing unprecedented warming. This warming has and will continue to significantly influence the structure and function of forest ecosystems. While studies have been conducted to explore the possible responses of forest landscapes to future climate change, the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have not been widely used in quantitative modeling research of forest landscapes. We used LANDIS‐II, a forest dynamic landscape model, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET‐II), to simulate spatial interactions and ecological succession processes under RCP scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We also modeled a control scenario of extrapolating current climate conditions to examine changes in distribution and aboveground biomass (AGB) among five different forest types for the period of 2010–2100 in Taihe County in southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. The results of the simulation show that climate change will significantly influence forest distribution and AGB. (i) Evergreen broad‐leaved forests will expand into Chinese fir and Chinese weeping cypress forests. The area percentages of evergreen broad‐leaved forests under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the control scenarios account for 18.25%, 18.71%, 18.85% and 17.46% of total forest area, respectively. (ii) The total AGB under RCP4.5 will reach its highest level by the year 2100. Compared with the control scenarios, the total AGB under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 24.1%, 64.2% and 29.8%, respectively. (iii) The forest total AGB increases rapidly at first and then decreases slowly on the temporal dimension. (iv) Even though the fluctuation patterns of total AGB will remain consistent under various future climatic scenarios, there will be certain responsive differences among various forest types.