Structural Decomposition Analysis of Raw Material Consumption

The aim of this article is to quantify the drivers for the changes in raw material consumption (domestic material consumption expressed in the form of all materials extracted and used in the production phase) in terms of technology, which refers to the concept of sustainable production; the product structure of final demand, which refers to the concept of sustainable consumption; and the volume of final demand, which is related to economic growth. We also aim to determine to what extent the technological development and a shift in product structure of the final demand compensate for the growth in final consumption volume. Therefore, we apply structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to the change in raw material consumption (RMC) of the Czech Republic between 2000 and 2007. To present the study in a broader context, we also show other material flow indicators for the Czech Republic for 2000 and 2007. Our findings of SDA show that final demand structure has a very limited effect on the change in material flows. The rapid change in final demand volume was not compensated for crude oil, metal ores, construction materials, food crops, and timber. For the material category of non‐iron metal ores, even the change in technology contributes to an increase in material flows. The largest relative increases are reported for non‐iron metal ores (38%) and construction materials (30%). The main changes in material flows related to the Czech Republic are driven by exports and enabled by imports, the main source of these increased material flows. This emphasizes the increasing role of international trade.     

An Extreme Value Analysis of Pollutant Concentrations in Surface Soils Due to Atmospheric Deposition

Risk assessments often rely on deterministic models using long-term averages or “steady-state” values of input variables. Such models do not provide the information needed to estimate acute exposures. This study uses extreme value theory to examine the frequency and magnitude of daily pollutant concentrations in surface soils predicted at six U.S. locations. Concentrations are predicted using a deposition-leaching model and 50 years of historical precipitation data. A stochastic model also is used to generate 1000 years of precipitation data as modeling inputs for each location. The annual maximum concentrations at each site are fitted to a Gumbel type I distribution to estimate occurrence probability. For soluble pollutants, the predicted concentration varied substantially with precipitation, and the maximum daily concentrations exceeded annual averages by 4 to 8 times. Observed and synthetic precipitation data produced similar results at most study locations, though the synthetic data provided a slightly better fit to the Gumbel type I distribution. The precipitation model allows the generation of representative precipitation data that extend limited historical records. The extreme value analysis facilitates the evaluation of maximum pollutant concentrations, return periods, and other statistics that are important in evaluating acute exposures.     

The unpredictability of favourability: condition assessment and protected areas in England

The probability that protected areas will deliver their potential for maintaining or enhancing biodiversity is likely to be maximised if they are appropriately and effectively managed. As a result, governments and conservation agencies are devoting much attention to the management of protected areas. In the U.K., the demand for performance accountability has resulted in Public Service Agreements (PSA) that set out targets for government departments to deliver results in return for investments being made. One such target for England is to ensure that all nationally important wildlife sites are in favourable condition by 2010. Here, we tested the hypothesis, of potential strategic importance, that the ecological condition of these sites is predictable from relationships with a range of physical, environmental and demographic variables. We used binary logistic regression to investigate these relationships, using the results of English Nature’s 1997–2003 condition assessment exercise. Generally, sites in unfavourable condition tend to be larger in area, located at higher elevations, but with higher human population density and are more spatially isolated from units of the same habitat. However, despite the range of different parameters included in our models, the extent to which the condition of any given site could be predicted was low. Our results have implications for the delivery of PSA targets, funding allocation, and the location of new protected areas.     

Emerging infectious diseases and animal social systems

Emerging infectious diseases threaten a wide diversity of animals, and important questions remain concerning disease emergence in socially structured populations. We developed a spatially explicit simulation model to investigate whether—and under what conditions—disease-related mortality can impact rates of pathogen spread in populations of polygynous groups. Specifically, we investigated whether pathogen-mediated dispersal (PMD) can occur when females disperse after the resident male dies from disease, thus carrying infections to new groups. We also examined the effects of incubation period and virulence, host mortality and rates of background dispersal, and we used the model to investigate the spread of the virus responsible for Ebola hemorrhagic fever, which currently is devastating African ape populations. Output was analyzed using regression trees, which enable exploration of hierarchical and non-linear relationships. Analyses revealed that the incidence of disease in single-male (polygynous) groups was significantly greater for those groups containing an average of more than six females, while the total number of infected hosts in the population was most sensitive to the number of females per group. Thus, as expected, PMD occurs in polygynous groups and its effects increase as harem size (the number of females) increases. Simulation output further indicated that population-level effects of Ebola are likely to differ among multi-male–multi-female chimpanzees and polygynous gorillas, with larger overall numbers of chimpanzees infected, but more gorilla groups becoming infected due to increased dispersal when the resident male dies. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of social system on the spread of disease in wild mammals.     

In Pursuit of Safety: One-Hundred Years of Toxicological Risk Assessment

The publication in 1962 of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring marks the mid-point in a century that saw, in its first half, the emergence of public health concerns related to human exposures to chemicals, and, in its second half, the emergence of public policies to deal with those concerns. Those policies made it imperative that the scientific community come to grips with the problem of identifying exposure levels not likely to cause harm. This problem was not significantly discussed within the scientific community until the 1950s, and well-described methods for practical solutions to it did not appear until the 1970s. An important report from the National Academy of Sciences, published in 1983 (Risk Assessment in the Federal Government), provided an analysis of these emerging methods, and recommended a useful framework for the assessment and management of risk. This framework remains central to public health and regulatory decision-making. A high-level perspective is offered on events leading to and following the 1983 report. The article describes early thinking about chemical toxicity and the scientific path that thinking followed through the 20th century, and to the present.     

城市景观生态风险评估框架与实践——以北京天坛地区为例

当前，城市景观生态风险研究缺少科学合理、方便实用的评估框架。作者基于景观生态风险评估基本范式，明确了城市景观生态服务价值的测算方法，分析了引起生态损害的自然因素和人类活动因素，形成了城市景观生态风险评估的技术框架和参数体系；继而以北京天坛地区为研究区，开展了典型城市景观生态风险的定量评估。结果表明：（1）天坛地区景观生态价值总量约为2.41亿元。区域的历史文化价值最高，教育和美学景观价值紧随其后。（2）城市景观生态受损概率呈现"北高南低"的空间分布格局。生态受损概率的高值区面积占整个区域总面积的22.2%，主要分布在珠市口、磁器口和崇文门附近区域。（3）城市景观生态风险呈现"北低南高"的空间分布格局。高风险区主要分布在天坛公园内的文物建筑周边。本研究提供了一个可参考的城市景观生态风险评估应用框架，对生态风险评估中的不确定性进行了讨论，研究针对天坛案例区的具体结论有助于城市管理者避免潜在的风险。     

The significance of mycotoxins in the framework of assessing workplace related risks

Mycotoxins are fungal metabolite which may in some cases exhibit a high health hazard potential. Mycotoxins can show carcinogenic, mutagenic, toxic, teratogenic or immunotoxic effects. Mycotoxin exposure in the workplace may occur through inhalation and skin contact,e.g. during occupational handling of organic matter such as livestock feed, food products, or waste. Various studies suggest that both acute and chronic effects can occur, depending at least on the exposure level. The magnitude of the potential health risks associated with a respiratory or dermal intake of mycotoxins has largely remained unclear to date. However, according to the directive 2000/54/EC on biological agents and the corresponding German Biological Agents Ordinance, employers are also required to consider the potential hazards posed by toxic effects of biological agents when assessing workplace risks. The aim of this article, therefore, is to present some basis information that should facilitate an evaluation of the significance of mycotoxins in the context of assessing workplace risks. It also provides suggestions for occupational health and safety measures.     

Reply to the first systematic response by the Global Footprint Network to criticism: A real debate finally?

We respond to a reaction of the Global Footprint Network/GFN on our 8-point criticism of the ecological footprint. We also refer to, and comment on, an associated debate in this journal between Giampietro and Saltelli, 2014a, Giampietro and Saltelli, 2014b, on the one hand, and Goldfinger et al. (2014), on the other. We conclude that criticism on the footprint is accumulating and coherent across the various studies and disciplines and among the different authors. This was the first time that Wackernagel/GFN systematically responded to our criticisms. Hence, our response contains several original elements and the resulting exchange can be seen to add value to the existing literature. It ultimately allows readers to better make up their mind about the different viewpoints on the ecological footprint.     

Vocalisation sound pattern identification in young broiler chickens

In this study, we describe the monitoring of young broiler chicken vocalisation, with sound recorded and assessed at regular intervals throughout the life of the birds from day 1 to day 38, with a focus on the first week of life. We assess whether there are recognisable, and even predictable, vocalisation patterns based on frequency and sound spectrum analysis, which can be observed in birds at different ages and stages of growth within the relatively short life of the birds in commercial broiler production cycles. The experimental trials were carried out in a farm where the broiler where reared indoor, and audio recording procedures carried out over 38 days. The recordings were made using two microphones connected to a digital recorder, and the sonic data was collected in situations without disturbance of the animals beyond that created by the routine activities of the farmer. Digital files of 1 h duration were cut into short files of 10 min duration, and these sound recordings were analysed and labelled using audio analysis software. Analysis of these short sound files showed that the key vocalisation frequency and patterns changed in relation to increasing age and the weight of the broilers. Statistical analysis showed a significant correlation (P<0.001) between the frequency of vocalisation and the age of the birds. Based on the identification of specific frequencies of the sounds emitted, in relation to age and weight, it is proposed that there is potential for audio monitoring and comparison with ‘anticipated’ sound patterns to be used to evaluate the status of farmed broiler chicken.     

Variation of chemical composition and antioxidant activity of essential oils of Mentha x rotundifolia (L.) Huds. (Lamiaceae) collected from different bioclimatic areas of Tunisia

The variation of the essential oils composition of 10 Tunisian Mentha x rotundifolia (L.) Huds. Populations and their antioxidant activity were assessed. Essential oils showed high percentages of oxygenated monoterpenes and sesquiterpene hydrocarbons. Rotundifolone, p-menthane-1,2,3-triol, β-caryophyllene and germacrene D were identified as main compounds at the species level. A variation in the essential oil composition was observed according to the populations and ecological factors. The populations 7, 8, 9 and 10 from the upper semi-arid bioclimatic zone and situated at high altitudes, exhibited the highest amount of rotundifolone. The populations 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 from the lower humid showed a rotundifolone/β-caryophyllene/germacrene D chemotype. The population 6, situated at the lowest altitude, was characterized by the highest amount of p-menthane-1,2,3-triol. The level of antioxidant activity of the populations was linked to their chemical composition difference. The highest scavenging activity and the best ability to reduce ferric ions were recorded for the population 10. The most important capacity to inhibit β-carotene bleaching was revealed for the population 8. For all populations, the antioxidant activities were substantial but lower than antioxidant standards used (Trolox and BHT).The populations (7, 8, 9 and 10) from the upper semi-arid showed the best yields of essential oils and the highest contents of rotundifolone. Chemotypes within these populations could be selected for improvement programs.