Influences of temporal independence of data on modelling species distributions

Modelling species distributions has been widely used to understand present and future potential distributions of species, and can provide adaptation and mitigation information as references for conservation and management under climate change. However, various methods of data splitting to develop and validate functions of the models do not get enough attention, which may mislead the interpretation of predicted results. We used the Taiwanese endemic birds to test the influences of temporal independence of datasets on model performance and prediction. Training and testing data were considered to be independent if they were collected during different survey periods (1993–2004 and 2009–2010). The results indicated no significant differences of six model performance measures (AUC, kappa, TSS, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity) among the combinations of training and testing datasets. Both species- and grid cell-based assessments differed significantly between predictions by the annual and pooled training data. We also found an average of 85.8% similarity for species presences and absences in different survey periods. The remaining dissimilarity was mostly caused by species observed in the late survey period but not in the early one. The method of data splitting, yielding training and testing data, is critical for resulting model species distributions. Even if similar model performance exists, different methods can lead to different species distributional maps. More attention needs to be given to this issue, especially when amplifying these models to project species distributions in a changing world.     

荒漠灌丛土壤动物分布及其生态功能

在干旱、半干旱荒漠生态系统中,灌丛作为一种重要的植被类型,其独特的形态和生理适应特性能够有效促进退化生态系统结构与功能的恢复。土壤动物是荒漠生态系统中不可或缺的重要组成部分,对促进灌丛"肥岛"演变具有重要的生态作用,有利于灌丛生态功能的发挥及退化生态系统的恢复。近年来,国内外学者对荒漠灌丛微生境土壤动物的研究逐步深入,取得大量的研究成果。在此基础上,首先综述荒漠灌丛微生境土壤动物群落分布和生态功能,总结灌丛与土壤动物分布间作用关系的数学模型,针对荒漠灌丛土壤动物研究中存在的问题提出了未来可能的研究方向和建议。     

气候变化和人类活动对中国北方旱区植被变绿的定量贡献

气候变化和大规模的生态恢复使中国北方旱区植被发生了显著变化，量化气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的相对贡献，对于旱区生态系统管理和应对未来气候变化具有重要意义。目前，中国北方旱区植被变化影响因素的时间动态（2000年大规模生态恢复工程实施前后）和空间异质性（沿干旱梯度）仍需进一步的定量研究。基于多源数据，采用趋势分析、偏相关分析和随机森林模型等方法，分析了1981-2018年中国北方旱区气候和植被的时空变化规律，量化了2000年前后气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的相对贡献并分析其在干旱梯度上的空间差异性。结果表明：（1）1981-2018年期间，中国北方旱区的叶面积指数（LAI）平均增加速率为（0.0037±0.0443） a^-1，且增加速率沿干旱梯度增大。2000年前仅10.46%（P<0.05）的地区显著变绿，而2000年后达到36.84%，且植被变绿主要归因于非树木植被。（2）2000年后降水对植被变绿的正效应在不同干旱梯度均增加，而在半干旱区和亚湿润干旱区，温度对植被变绿由正向促进转为负向抑制，而辐射在干旱区由负效应转向正效应。（3）2000年前后，气候变化均主导着植被的动态，贡献率分别为96.07%和73.72%，人类活动的贡献在2000年后进一步增强（从3.93%增加到26.28%），且沿着干旱梯度而增加，其中人类活动对植被变绿的贡献在半干旱地区增加最显著（+0.0289 m² m^-2 a^-1，P<0.05）。研究结果可为未来气候变化下中国北方旱区的植被恢复和可持续发展提供科学依据。     

Temporal patterns of breeding and recruitment in Nerophis lumbriciformis(Pisces; Syngnathidae) related to seawater temperatures

The breeding season of Nerophis lumbriciformis , a cold water pipefish, was positively correlated with seawater temperatures <15·5° C, whilst recruitment occurred at the end of the upwelling season, when seawater temperature attained its maximum values. The observed alterations in seawater temperatures, with steady year‐round increases, and the consequent alteration of the upwelling regime, may have dramatic consequences in the maintenance of N. lumbriciformis populations, by reducing the breeding period and simultaneously contributing to the transport of pelagic larvae northwards due to specific sea currents that occur outside the upwelling season.     

The incidence, distribution and expression of Australian grapevine yellows, restricted growth and late season leaf curl diseases in selected Australian vineyards

Surveys were conducted in four Chardonnay vineyards for 3 to 6 years and one Shiraz vineyard for 3 years to determine the yearly percentage of grapevines affected by Australian grapevine yellows disease (AGYd), restricted growth disease (RGd) and late season leaf curl disease (LSLCd). In each of the Chardonnay vineyards in each year, all three diseases were characterised by remission of disease in some grapevines, recurrence of disease in other grapevines and new observations of disease in previously unaffected grapevines. The pattern of temporal incidence of each disease was different between vineyards for the survey period. Although Koch's postulates have not been fulfilled, phytoplasmas are considered to be the most likely cause of AGYd. While some grapevines exhibited a combination of AGYd and RGd or AGYd and LSLCd, both RGd and LSLCd can occur independently of AGYd. Statistical analyses using log-linear models also indicated that RGd and LSLCd were not always associated with AGYd. Thus, it is possible that phytoplasmas are not the cause of RGd or LSLCd and their association is coincidental. Expression of AGYd in Shiraz grapevines occurred later in the season compared to Chardonnay. Very little recurrence of AGYd was observed in the Shiraz grapevines indicating that the variety Shiraz responds differently to phytoplasma infections, assuming that AGYd in Shiraz is a phytoplasma caused disease. RGd and LSLCd were not observed on any grapevines in the Shiraz vineyard.