Seasonal distribution of increased precipitation in maternal environments influences offspring performance of Potentilla tanacetifolia in a temperate steppe ecosystem

Aims Precipitation is predicted to increase in arid and semiarid regions under climate change, with greater changes in intra- and inter-annual distribution in the future. As a major limiting factor in these regions, changes in precipitation undoubtedly influence plant growth and productivity. However, how the temporal shifts in precipitation will impact plant populations are uncertain.     

Effect of interannual precipitation variability on dryland productivity: A global synthesis

Climate‐change assessments project increasing precipitation variability through increased frequency of extreme events. However, the effects of interannual precipitation variance per se on ecosystem functioning have been largely understudied. Here, we report on the effects of interannual precipitation variability on the primary production of global drylands, which include deserts, steppes, shrublands, grasslands, and prairies and cover about 40% of the terrestrial earth surface. We used a global database that has 43 datasets, which are uniformly distributed in parameter space and each has at least 10 years of data. We found (a) that at the global scale, precipitation variability has a negative effect on aboveground net primary production. (b) Expected increases in interannual precipitation variability for the year 2,100 may result in a decrease of up to 12% of the global terrestrial carbon sink. (c) The effect of precipitation interannual variability on dryland productivity changes from positive to negative along a precipitation gradient. Arid sites with mean precipitation under 300 mm/year responded positively to increases in precipitation variability, whereas sites with mean precipitation over 300 mm/year responded negatively. We propose three complementary mechanisms to explain this result: (a) concave‐up and concave‐down precipitation–production relationships in arid vs. humid systems, (b) shift in the distribution of water in the soil profile, and (c) altered frequency of positive and negative legacies. Our results demonstrated that enhanced precipitation variability will have direct impacts on global drylands that can potentially affect the future terrestrial carbon sink.     

Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space‐for‐time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability in these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well‐constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space‐for‐time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10‐ to 40‐fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35‐fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability in the flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well‐constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.     

The adaptive potential of plant populations in response to extreme climate events

The frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events are increasing with global change, yet we lack predictions and empirical evidence for the ability of wild populations to persist and adapt in response to these events. Here, we used Fisher's Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection to evaluate the adaptive potential of Lasthenia fremontii, a herbaceous winter annual that is endemic to seasonally flooded wetlands in California, to alternative flooding regimes that occur during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The results indicate that populations may exhibit greater adaptive potential in response to dry years than wet years, and that the relative performance of populations will change across climate scenarios. More generally, our findings show that extreme climate events can substantially change the potential for populations to adapt to climate change by modulating the expression of standing genetic variation and mean fitness.     

陕甘宁地区降水稳定同位素特征及水汽来源

依据全球大气降水稳定同位素观测网络(GNIP)和已有研究中陕甘宁地区的大气降水氢氧稳定同位素资料,并结合相关气象数据,分析了陕甘宁地区大气降水氧稳定同位素的时空分布特征及其影响因子,并建立了大气降水线方程.结果表明:3省大气降水线的斜率、截距由小到大依次为:甘肃、陕西、宁夏,且均小于全球大气降水线方程的斜率、截距,表明3省的降水过程受蒸发作用影响程度沿宁夏、陕西、甘肃增强;陕甘宁地区大气降水中δ18O值在时间变化上,表现为夏秋季节富集、冬春季节贫化,从空间分布来看,由西北至东南,加权平均δ18O值呈减小趋势;3省降水中δ18O温度效应显著,但不存在降水量效应,这体现了中高纬度大陆性气候的特征;高程效应的定量关系为-0.12‰·(100 m)^-1,纬度效应更显著(纬度每增加1°,降水中δ18O相应贫化0.27‰);采用HYSPLIT模型对各站点的水汽来源进行追踪,气团聚类轨迹表明,夏半年主要有来自孟加拉湾的水汽、东南季风水汽和西风带水汽,冬半年以西风带水汽为主.     

基于SPEI指数的淮河流域干旱时空演变特征及影响研究

运用淮河流域149个气象站1962—2016年逐日气温、降水资料以及历史旱情资料,基于SPEI、EOF和M-K等方法分析淮河流域的干旱时空特征,研究干旱的时空演变规律并揭示其对农业生产的影响。结果表明:(1)基于SPEI得到的干旱频次与受灾、成灾面积的相关性通过了0.1的显著性水平检验,表明SPEI在淮河流域具有较好的适用性;(2)淮河流域干旱发生时间差异明显,干旱次数呈现波动变化,发生重旱和特旱次数占总干旱的比重是20.0%,其中重旱和特旱在1960s比重最大(24.8%),其次是2010s(15.8%),在1980s比重最低(10.0%);(3)干旱的空间分布差异大,淮河流域干旱频率在27.76%—36.04%之间,西北部和东南部发生干旱强度较西南部、东北部及中部低;(4)淮河流域总体呈干旱化的趋势,从中部到四周呈现由高到低递减的趋势变化,且空间模态表现为全区一致型、南北相反型和东西相反型。     

基于DSSAT模型对豫北地区夏玉米灌溉制度的优化模拟

合理的灌溉制度是提高农业水资源利用效率、保证夏玉米高产稳产的前提。采用农业技术转化决策系统(DSSAT,Decision Support System for Agrotechno1ogy Transfer)探究了河南省北部地区夏玉米不同降水年型下的最优灌溉制度。经过参数的校正和验证,归一化均方根误差(nRMSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和一致性指数(d)均表现出模拟值与实测值的吻合度很好,DSSAT-maize模型可以准确模拟夏玉米物候期、地上部分生物量、产量和土壤水分状况。然后基于模型模拟了不同灌溉处理下的夏玉米生产潜力,从而评估夏玉米缺水量,并对比分析不同生育时期灌水对产量的影响确定最优灌溉时期,综合考虑产量和水分利用效率确定最优灌溉制度。结果表明:夏玉米生长季的缺水量年际间差异显著,多年平均值为38.91 mm,波动范围为0—193.03 mm。在丰水年,不需要灌溉;在平水年,开花期灌水30 mm;在枯水年,开花期和灌浆期灌水50 mm;在特别干旱年,苗期、拔节期和开花期至少灌水180 mm。优化的灌溉制度下丰水年、平水年和枯水年的WUE达到最高且产量分别占其最高产量的100%、99.72%和97.89%,实现了作物高产节水协同提高的目标。     

2002-2016年华北平原植被生长状况及水文要素时空特征分析

基于MODIS增强型植被指数（EVI）资料,结合降水、GRACE重力卫星水储量（TWS）、地下水、土壤水等资料,分析华北平原植被2002-2016年间的生长状况及各水文要素时空分布特征。研究结果表明：（1）2002-2016年间华北平原植被呈好转趋势,降水、水储量、土壤水、地下水等水文要素值呈减少趋势。（2）黄淮平原区植被以农作物为主,植被覆盖度呈增加趋势,而降水、水储量、地下水、土壤水均呈减少趋势,超采地下水灌溉农作物是短期内保障粮食安全的重要措施。（3）燕山-太行山山麓平原区、冀鲁豫低洼平原区的城乡居民用地区域植被覆盖显著减少,而降水增多,水储量、土壤水、地下水减少,人类活动对植被和水文要素贡献量大。（4）山东丘陵农林区分布着林地和草地,这些区域生长季的植被指数呈减少趋势,与降水量减少呈正相关关系。在气候变化和人类活动影响的大背景下,探讨不同生态环境的植被生长特征,清楚植被对水文变化的响应机理,可以消除影响植被生长的不利因素,为制定合理用水制度提供理论依据。     

干旱条件下夏玉米地-气温差的影响因素及其模拟

地-气温差指标表征作物水分亏缺状况已经被广泛研究,但地-气温差随作物生育进程的变化特征及其影响因子的观测研究仍较少,制约着地-气温差的准确模拟.基于夏玉米2014年三叶期和2015年拔节期的5个灌溉水分控制试验资料的研究表明: 随着夏玉米生育进程的推进,土壤水分的变化显著影响了夏玉米农田的地-气温差,土壤水分亏缺越严重,地-气温差越高.在整个水分处理期间,归一化植被指数是地-气温差的主要影响因子且两者呈显著的线性关系,但不同生育期地-气温差还受其他因子的影响:三叶期后受冠层吸收光合有效辐射比影响且呈显著的线性关系,三叶期至拔节期则受土壤相对湿度和空气相对湿度的影响且呈显著的线性关系.在此基础上,基于2014年试验资料建立了夏玉米全生育期地-气温差模拟模型、营养生长期地-气温差模拟模型和生殖生长期地-气温差模拟模型,并利用2015年夏玉米拔节期5个灌溉水分控制试验资料进行了模型验证,结果表明,夏玉米全生育期地-气温差模型可以解释2015年地-气温差变异的63%,但地-气温差分生育期模拟模型,即营养生长期地-气温差模拟模型和生殖生长期地-气温差模拟模型综合的模拟结果则可解释2015年地-气温差变异的79%.研究结果为基于地-气温差的作物干旱指标定量评估作物干旱提供了依据.