海南岛热带山地雨林林分生物量估测方法比较分析

本文通过对海南岛热带山地雨林林分生物量估测方法的比较分析,表明材积转换法不适宜估算海南岛热带山地雨林林分生物量,其结果与皆伐法相比较一般偏高20％—40％;而用实测资料建立的生物量回归模型,对原始林林分有较好的估测结果,除树枝和树叶生物量外,树干、树皮及地上部分生物量的回归模型值,与皆伐法的结果比较,相对误差一般在±10％以内,为允许误差范围,而对热带山地雨林的更新林生物量的估测则效果较差,应建立相应的估测模型。平均木法有工作量小的优点,且误差也在16％以下,但要注意取样的树种多样性和取样强度,在实际中应当慎用。另外本文对测定热带山地雨林生物量(原始林)的所需面积大小问题作了研究,提出了生物量-面积曲线的概念,确定其最小调查面积为2500m~2以上。     

Variable selection in nonlinear function-on-scalar regression

We develop a new method for variable selection in a nonlinear additive function-on-scalar regression (FOSR) model. Existing methods for variable selection in FOSR have focused on the linear effects of scalar predictors, which can be a restrictive assumption in the presence of multiple continuously measured covariates. We propose a computationally efficient approach for variable selection in existing linear FOSR using functional principal component scores of the functional response and extend this framework to a nonlinear additive function-on-scalar model. The proposed method provides a unified and flexible framework for variable selection in FOSR, allowing nonlinear effects of the covariates. Numerical analysis using simulation study illustrates the advantages of the proposed method over existing variable selection methods in FOSR even when the underlying covariate effects are all linear. The proposed procedure is demonstrated on accelerometer data from the 2003–2004 cohorts of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in understanding the association between diurnal patterns of physical activity and demographic, lifestyle, and health characteristics of the participants.     

Multikink quantile regression for longitudinal data with application to progesterone data analysis

Motivated by investigating the relationship between progesterone and the days in a menstrual cycle in a longitudinal study, we propose a multikink quantile regression model for longitudinal data analysis. It relaxes the linearity condition and assumes different regression forms in different regions of the domain of the threshold covariate. In this paper, we first propose a multikink quantile regression for longitudinal data. Two estimation procedures are proposed to estimate the regression coefficients and the kink points locations: one is a computationally efficient profile estimator under the working independence framework while the other one considers the within-subject correlations by using the unbiased generalized estimation equation approach. The selection consistency of the number of kink points and the asymptotic normality of two proposed estimators are established. Second, we construct a rank score test based on partial subgradients for the existence of the kink effect in longitudinal studies. Both the null distribution and the local alternative distribution of the test statistic have been derived. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods have excellent finite sample performance. In the application to the longitudinal progesterone data, we identify two kink points in the progesterone curves over different quantiles and observe that the progesterone level remains stable before the day of ovulation, then increases quickly in 5 to 6 days after ovulation and then changes to stable again or drops slightly.     

Marginal proportional hazards models for clustered interval-censored data with time-dependent covariates

The Botswana Combination Prevention Project was a cluster-randomized HIV prevention trial whose follow-up period coincided with Botswana's national adoption of a universal test and treat strategy for HIV management. Of interest is whether, and to what extent, this change in policy modified the preventative effects of the study intervention. To address such questions, we adopt a stratified proportional hazards model for clustered interval-censored data with time-dependent covariates and develop a composite expectation maximization algorithm that facilitates estimation of model parameters without placing parametric assumptions on either the baseline hazard functions or the within-cluster dependence structure. We show that the resulting estimators for the regression parameters are consistent and asymptotically normal. We also propose and provide theoretical justification for the use of the profile composite likelihood function to construct a robust sandwich estimator for the variance. We characterize the finite-sample performance and robustness of these estimators through extensive simulation studies. Finally, we conclude by applying this stratified proportional hazards model to a re-analysis of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, with the national adoption of a universal test and treat strategy now modeled as a time-dependent covariate.     

Associating somatic mutation with clinical outcomes through kernel regression and optimal transport

Somatic mutations in cancer patients are inherently sparse and potentially high dimensional. Cancer patients may share the same set of deregulated biological processes perturbed by different sets of somatically mutated genes. Therefore, when assessing the associations between somatic mutations and clinical outcomes, gene-by-gene analysis is often under-powered because it does not capture the complex disease mechanisms shared across cancer patients. Rather than testing genes one by one, an intuitive approach is to aggregate somatic mutation data of multiple genes to assess their joint association with clinical outcomes. The challenge is how to aggregate such information. Building on the optimal transport method, we propose a principled approach to estimate the similarity of somatic mutation profiles of multiple genes between tumor samples, while accounting for gene–gene similarities defined by gene annotations or empirical mutational patterns. Using such similarities, we can assess the associations between somatic mutations and clinical outcomes by kernel regression. We have applied our method to analyze somatic mutation data of 17 cancer types and identified at least five cancer types, where somatic mutations are associated with overall survival, progression-free interval, or cytolytic activity.     

Functional data analysis with covariate-dependent mean and covariance structures

Functional data analysis has emerged as a powerful tool in response to the ever-increasing resources and efforts devoted to collecting information about response curves or anything that varies over a continuum. However, limited progress has been made with regard to linking the covariance structures of response curves to external covariates, as most functional models assume a common covariance structure. We propose a new functional regression model with covariate-dependent mean and covariance structures. Particularly, by allowing variances of random scores to be covariate-dependent, we identify eigenfunctions for each individual from the set of eigenfunctions that govern the variation patterns across all individuals, resulting in high interpretability and prediction power. We further propose a new penalized quasi-likelihood procedure that combines regularization and B-spline smoothing for model selection and estimation and establish the convergence rate and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. The utility of the developed method is demonstrated via simulations, as well as an analysis of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children concerning parental effects on the growth curves of their offspring, which yields biologically interesting results.     

Bias-reduced estimators of conditional odds ratios in matched case-control studies with unmatched confounding

We study bias-reduced estimators of exponentially transformed parameters in general linear models (GLMs) and show how they can be used to obtain bias-reduced conditional (or unconditional) odds ratios in matched case-control studies. Two options are considered and compared: the explicit approach and the implicit approach. The implicit approach is based on the modified score function where bias-reduced estimates are obtained by using iterative procedures to solve the modified score equations. The explicit approach is shown to be a one-step approximation of this iterative procedure. To apply these approaches for the conditional analysis of matched case-control studies, with potentially unmatched confounding and with several exposures, we utilize the relation between the conditional likelihood and the likelihood of the unconditional logit binomial GLM for matched pairs and Cox partial likelihood for matched sets with appropriately setup data. The properties of the estimators are evaluated by using a large Monte Carlo simulation study and an illustration of a real dataset is shown. Researchers reporting the results on the exponentiated scale should use bias-reduced estimators since otherwise the effects can be under or overestimated, where the magnitude of the bias is especially large in studies with smaller sample sizes.     

Using real-world data to predict health outcomes—The prediction design: Application and sample size planning

The gold standard for investigating the efficacy of a new therapy is a (pragmatic) randomized controlled trial (RCT). This approach is costly, time-consuming, and not always practicable. At the same time, huge quantities of available patient-level control condition data in analyzable format of (former) RCTs or real-world data (RWD) are neglected. Therefore, alternative study designs are desirable. The design presented here consists of setting up a prediction model for determining treatment effects under the control condition for future patients. When a new treatment is intended to be tested against a control treatment, a single-arm trial for the new therapy is conducted. The treatment effect is then evaluated by comparing the outcomes of the single-arm trial against the predicted outcomes under the control condition. While there are obvious advantages of this design compared to classical RCTs (increased efficiency, lower cost, alleviating participants’ fear of being on control treatment), there are several sources of bias. Our aim is to investigate whether and how such a design—the prediction design—may be used to provide information on treatment effects by leveraging external data sources. For this purpose, we investigated under what assumptions linear prediction models could be used to predict the counterfactual of patients precisely enough to construct a test and an appropriate sample size formula for evaluating the average treatment effect in the population of a new study. A user-friendly R Shiny application (available at: https://web.imbi.uni-heidelberg.de/PredictionDesignR/ ) facilitates the application of the proposed methods, while a real-world application example illustrates them.     

Area, shape and isolation of tropical forest fragments: effects on tree species diversity and implications for conservation

Aim To quantify the influences of forest area, shape and isolation on tree species diversity in Ghana and to compare their significance with the influences of climate (average annual rainfall) and disturbance (fire burn, logging, agriculture). Location The forest zone of southern Ghana, West Africa (between 5 and 8° N). Methods For twenty‐two forest fragments (1) bivariate regression analyses of tree species diversity (number and composition) were employed with forest spatial geometry, climate and disturbance variables. (2) Multivariate regression analyses of tree species number and all seven environmental variables were used to determine the variability in tree species number that could be accounted for by these environmental variables. Results Forest area, shape and isolation accounted for sharply decreasing proportions of variability in tree species diversity. Large forest fragments contained the greatest numbers of tree species and the highest proportions of rare tree species; irregular fragments had high proportions of regenerating, light‐demanding pioneers and mature, animal‐dispersed species and isolated fragments were floristically similar to less isolated fragments. Fire burn and average annual rainfall accounted for small, but nevertheless significant, proportions of variability in tree species diversity. Logging and agriculture were non‐significant variables. Main conclusions (1) Forest area is the most important consideration when planning tropical forest reserves. (2) Management of disturbance should take priority over management of forest shape if higher levels of tree diversity and species quality are to be maintained. (3) If new reserves are to be designated, they should be located within different climatic zones in order to capture a large fraction of the regional biota. (4) Biogeographers have an important role to play in formulating and testing hypotheses at a broad spatial scale and ultimately, informing conservation management within the tropical biome.