Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of West Java Water Sustainability Index – A case study on Citarum catchment in Indonesia

Water sustainability indices have been recently used to measure the sustainability of water resources within a catchment. Developing a sustainability index involves various steps, some of which have uncertainties associated with them. For the recently developed West Java Water Sustainability Index (WJWSI), three sources of uncertainties were identified, namely uncertainties in the thresholds of non-categorical indicators and sub-indicators, in the weighting schemes, and in the aggregation methods. This paper presents the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of WJWSI, based on the application of WJWSI to Citarum catchment in West Java, Indonesia. The results of the uncertainty analysis, measured by the coefficient of variation of the thresholds and the sub-indices, indicates that minimum thresholds of Land Use Changes, Coverage, Education, Poverty, Health Impact and Sanitation, and the maximum threshold of Water Quality have higher variation when compared to variation of the other thresholds. The results of the sensitivity analysis, measured by the correlation coefficients between the final index and the thresholds, indicate that changes in the thresholds of WJWSI indicators have not significantly affected the sub-index values of most indicators and sub-indicators. The sensitivity analysis also concluded that either the equal or non-equal weighting scheme can be used for future use of the aggregation of WJWSI indicators and sub-indicators, as changes from equal to non-equal weighting scheme did not significantly affect the final index. However, it was found that the final index values were most sensitive to the aggregation method used (i.e. arithmetic and geometric methods), shown by the significant changes in the final index value when the aggregation method was changed from arithmetic to geometric. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis presented in this study will not just assist in the efficient use of the WJWSI, but will also help undertake similar analysis for other indices.     

Analysis of growth during phototropic curvature of cress hypocotyls

Abstract. Growth rates throughout an organ curving phototropically under continuous, unilateral while light were monitored by lime-lapse photography of cress hypocotyls marked into 1 mm sections by two rows of ion-exchange beads. Curvature resulted from an integrated sequence of changes in growth rate on each side of the organ, but the actual patterns of change and, therefore rales of curvature, differed within even this one species, depending upon the immediate pretreatment of the seedlings. Transference of seedlings from darkness to unilateral irradiation gave immediate growth inhibition on both sides of the organ. Curvature resulted from differential recovery of growth rate, being seen first on the shaded side, most prominently in the apical regions; only 2h after initial exposure to light did growth recover on the lit (lower) side. On the other hand, transfer of seedlings from omnilateral to unilateral irradiation of the same intensity resulted in simultaneous growth inhibition on the irradiated side and stimulated growth on the shaded side: this growth stimulation of the shaded side was greater than occurred in totally darkened control plants.     

A novel galactosyl-binding lectin from the plasma of the blood clam,Anadara granosa (L) and a study of its combining site

Control Analysis has been carried out in the first steps of a rat liver glycolytic system. Attention has been focused on the effect of several glucose concentrations on the control, particularly regarding the role of glucokinase. From kinetic studies of the whole metabolic system we have obtained information on the flux variation under different glucose concentrations. This information together with the kinetics of glucokinase has allowed us to calculate Flux Control and Elasticity Coefficients for glucokinase and the Response Coefficient of the system with respect to glucose. The changes in of the value of Flux Control Coefficients demonstrates that in conditions of low glucose concentration, glucokinase is the main enzyme in controlling the flux through the pathway, but at high glucose concentration the control moves to phosphofructokinase. Next, we have compared our results with those obtained with the shortening and titration method, previously described (Torres, N.V., Mateo, F., Mélendez-Hevia, E. and Kacser, H., (1986) Biochem. J. 234, 169–174; Torres, N.V. and Meléndez-Hevia, E. 1991. Molec. Cell. Biochem. 101, 1–10). Furthermore, from knowledge of the enzyme kinetics of the system we have been able to build a model of the pathway that allows us computer similation of its behavior and calculation of the Flux Control Coefficient profile at different glucose concentrations. By the three methods the results correlate, supporting the use of the pathway substrate as external modulator of the metabolic system as a tool for practical application of Control Analysis.     

Bird sensitivity to disturbance as an indicator of forest patch conditions: An issue in environmental assessments

An Environmental Assessment (EA) is one of the steps within the Environmental Impact Assessment process. Birds are often used in EA to help decision makers evaluate potential human impacts from proposed development activities. A “sensitivity to human disturbance” index, created by Parker III et al. (1996) for all Neotropical species, is commonly considered an ecological indicator. However, this parameter was created subjectively and, for most species, there have been no rigorous field test to validate its effectiveness as such. Therefore, in this study, we aim to: (1) evaluate if, at the local scale, birds from forest patches in a human-modified landscape (HML) may differ in sensitivity from Parker's sensitivity classification; (2) evaluate the effectiveness of the species richness value at each sensitivity level as an ecological indicator; (3) gather information on how often and in which manner Parker's classification has been used in EA. To do so, bird sampling was performed in eight forest patches in a HML over one year. Then, we created a local sensitivity to disturbance using information about threat, endemism, spatial distribution and relative abundance of all species in the study area. We found that 37% of the forest birds showed different local sensitivity levels when compared with Parker's classification. Our results show that only the richness of high-sensitivity species from our local classification fitted the ecological indicator assumptions helping the environmental conditions evaluation of the studied patches. We conclude that species richness of each Parker's bird sensitivity levels do not necessarily perform as an ecological indicator at the local scale, and particularly in HML. Nevertheless, Parker's Neotropical bird sensitivity classification was used in 50% of EA we reviewed. In these, 76% assumed that it was an accurate ecological indicator of the local forest conditions for birds. The lack of clear criteria used in Parker's classification allows diverse interpretations by ornithologists, and there is no agreement about the ecological meaning of each sensitivity level and what environmental conditions each level may indicate of. Therefore, the use of Parker's classification in EA may jeopardize accurate interpretations of proposed anthropogenic impacts. Furthermore, because a bird species’ sensitivity often varies between locations, we argue that Parker's generalized classification of bird sensitivity should not be used as an indicator of forest environmental conditions in EA throughout HMLs in Neotropics. Rather, local bird ecological indices should be explored, otherwise, erroneous predictions of the anthropogenic impacts will continue to be common.     

A novel approach for assessing factors affecting biodiversity based on networks analysis

We propose in this work a novel approach aiming at assessing cause and effect relationships between variables that can affect target biodiversity issues. These cause–effect relations are used to build a network whose nodes represent variables linked by directed arcs. The arcs have associated a value that represents trends of cause–effect relations. An important novelty of this approach is the use of product and addition operations between trends of cause–effect relations for assessing factors that can affect target variables. For the analysis of the network we use the concept of paths. Paths are defined as sequences of cause–effect relations from source variables to target variables. For example, the path from population increment that causes effects on the increment of transport routes, which in turn causes effects on the loss of vegetation cover. This approach was applied to the assessment of vegetation cover in the Morelos State, México during the period 2000–2010. The results show a promising practical alternative to assess the potential effects on biodiversity issues based on the analysis of the paths represented in the network.     

Novel strategies for assessing and managing the risks posed by invasive alien species to global crop production and biodiversity

International actions to combat the threat posed by invasive alien species (IAS) to crops and biodiversity have intensified in recent years. The formulation of 15 guiding principles on IAS by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) stimulated the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) to review its role in protecting biodiversity. IPPC standards now demonstrate clearly that the risks posed by any organism that is directly or indirectly injurious to cultivated or uncultivated plants can be assessed and managed under the IPPC. Since the IPPC, unlike the CBD, constitutes an international legal instrument recognised by the World Trade Organization, greater protection from the introduction of IAS is now available. However, phytosanitary measures can only be enacted if they can be justified by risk analysis and we outline some novel strategies to improve the assessment and management of the risks posed by IAS, highlighting some of the key challenges which remain.     

Isolation and characterization of eight compound microsatellite markers in a mangrove tree Kandelia candel (L.) Druce

Kandelia candel is an important mangrove tree species of family Rhizophoraceae. Here we isolated eight codominant compound microsatellite simple sequence repeat (SSR) loci from K. candel. Our isolated loci provided compound SSR markers with polymorphism of three to 11 alleles per locus. The expected and observed heterozygosities ranged from 0.230 to 0.887 and from 0.083 to 1.00, respectively. These markers would be the useful tools for analysing questions concerning population genetic structure and mating system of K. candel.     

Field studies on the population dynamics of Biomphalaria glabrata, intermediate host of Schistosoma mansoni on the West Indian Island of St. Lucia

Growth curves, calculated for field populations of B. glabrata, were not materially affected by habitat, altitude or season. A mean growth curve was therefore used to estimate the age-frequency distribution of snails in successive field samples. These data permitted the construction of ecological life tables and the estimation of r, the intrinsic rate of natural increase (or decrease) of the different populations. The calculated values of r were inserted in a simple model of unlimited population growth but the resultant curves poorly represented the observed data. A model for unlimited growth was more satisfactory for pond and marsh populations but, apparently, immigration made it less satisfactory for stream and banana drain populations. Nevertheless, r may still be of value in predicting repopulation rates in certain habitats after a mollusciciding which does not kill the entire snail population.     

Measuring sexual selection on females in sex‐role‐reversed Mormon crickets (Anabrus simplex,Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae)

Although many studies examine the form of sexual selection in males, studies characterizing this selection in females remain sparse. Sexual selection on females is predicted for sex‐role‐reversed Mormon crickets, Anabrus simplex, where males are choosy of mates and nutrient‐deprived females compete for matings and nutritious nuptial gifts. We used selection analyses to describe the strength and form of sexual selection on female morphology. There was no positive linear sexual selection on the female body size traits predicted to be associated with male preferences and female competition. Instead, we detected selection for decreasing head width and mandible length, with stabilizing selection as the dominant form of nonlinear selection. Additionally, we tested the validity of a commonly used instantaneous measure of mating success by comparing selection results with those determined using cumulative mating rate. The two fitness measures yielded similar patterns of selection, supporting the common sampling method comparing mated and unmated fractions.     

Ordination and classification of operational geographic units in Southwest Sweden

The vascular plant distributions of Dalsland and northern Bohuslän (Southwest Sweden) were subjected to multivariate analyses in order to delimit geographically coherent floristic zones. 271 squares of 5×5 km were the Operational Geographic Units; the data matrix comprises presence/absence species records for each OGU. Different ordination and classification methods were tested and detailed results are presented for detrended correspondence analysis (DCA), UPGMA and ordination space partitioning (OSP). A weighting procedure, neighbour-weighting, which gives pseudo-frequency scores along the nominal scale 0–9 depending on the species' distribution patterns, is introduced. The superior method for delimiting geographically coherent floristic zones was judged to be ordination space partitioning, using DCA and neighbour-weighted species scores.Abbreviations DCA Detrended Correspondence Analysis - OGU Operational Geographical Unit - OSP Ordination Space Partitioning - UPGMA Unweighted Pair-Group Method using Arithmetic Averages