Stochastic simulation of clonal growth in the tall goldenrod,Solidago altissima

Summary As clonal plants grow they move through space. The movement patterns that result can be complex and difficult to interpret without the aid of models. We developed a stochastic simulation model of clonal growth in the tall goldenrod, Solidago altissima. Our model was calibrated with field data on the clonal expansion of both seedlings and established clones, and model assumptions were verified by statistical analyses.When simulations were based on empirical distributions with long rhizome lengths, there was greater dispersal, less leaf overlap, and less spatial aggregation than when simulations were based on distributions with comparatively short rhizome lengths. For the field data that we utilized, variation in rhizome lengths had a greater effect than variation for either branching angles or rhizome initiation points (see text). We also found that observed patterns of clonal growth in S. altissima did not cause the formation of fairy rings. However, simulations with an artificial distribution of branching angles demonstrate that fairy rings can result solely from a plant's clonal morphology.Stochastic simulation models that incorporated variation in rhizome lengths, branching angles, and rhizome initiation points produced greater dispersal and less leaf overlap than deterministic models. Thus, variation for clonal growth parameters may increase the efficiency of substrate exploration by increasing the area covered and by decreasing the potential for intraclonal competition. We also demonstrated that ramet displacements were slightly, but consistently lower in stochastic simulation models than in random-walk models. This difference was due to the incorporation of details on rhizome bud initiation into stochastic simulation models, but not random-walk models. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of deterministic, stochastic simulation, and random-walk models of clonal growth.     

Reduced orthostatic tolerance following 4 h head-down tilt

The cardiovascular responses to a 10-min 1.22 rad (70 degrees) head-up tilt orthostatic tolerance test (OST) was observed in eight healthy men following each of a 5-min supine baseline (control), 4 h of 0.1 rad (6 degrees) head-down tilt (HDT), or 4 h 0.52 rad (30 degrees) head-up tilt (HUT). An important clinical observation was presyncopal symptoms in six of eight subjects following 4 h HDT, but in no subjects following 4 h HUT. Immediately prior to the OST, there were no differences in heart rate, stroke volume, cardiac output, mean arterial pressure and total peripheral resistance for HDT and HUT. However, stroke volume and cardiac output were greater for the control group. Mean arterial pressure for the control group was less than HDT but not HUT. Over the full 10-min period of OST, the mean arterial pressure was not different between groups. Heart rate increased to the same level for all three treatments. Stroke volume decreased across the full time period for control and HDT, but only at 3 and 9 min for HUT. There was a higher total peripheral resistance in the HDT group than control or HUT. The pre-ejection period to left ventricular ejection time ratio was less in HDT than for control or HUT groups. These data indicate a rapid adaptation of the cardiovascular system to 4 h HDT that appears to be inappropriate on reapplication of a head to foot gravity vector. We speculate that the cause of the impaired orthostatic tolerance is decreased tone in venous capacitance vessels so that venous return is inadequate.     

Phenological models of development in Pandemis heparana and Adoxophyes orana for timing the application of Insect Growth Regulators with juvenile-hormone activity

Control of leafrollers using Insect Growth Regulators with juvenile-hormone acitivity (IGR) is a major issue in research on Integrated Pest Management in apple orchards. The IGR is applied at the time of emergence of the last-larval instar of leafrollers, thus causing a disturbance of metamorphosis.Simulation models on the development of Pandemis heparana (Denn. et Schiff.) and Adoxophyes orana (F.v.R.) were developed, partly on the basis of experiments, partly on data from literature, to predict the time of emergence of the various stages, particularly of the last-larval instar and the pupa. The models use the state-variable approach, and include only temperature as a driving variable.Simulated curves of emergence of last-instar larvae, pupae and moths corresponded well with observations on field-collected larvae, reared to adult stage in an outdoor insectary. The curves of pheromone trap catches showed a delay relative to the calculated and observed curves for the eclosion of pupae.To investigate whether the time of IGR application could be related to a temperature sum, the relation between emergence curves of last-instar larvae and temperature sums was studied for several years. For this purpose simulated curves were used, because observations on emergence of last-instar covered only a few years.

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Résumé Le contrôle des Tordeuses par les régulateurs de croissance d'Insectes (IGR), à activité d'hormone juvénile, est un progrès majeur dans la recherche pour la lutte intégrée contre les ennemis des vergers de pommiers.L'IGR appliqué lors de l'apparition du dernier stade larvaire des Tordeuses, perturbe ainsi la métamorphose ultérieure. Afin de prévoir le moment d'apparition des différents stades, et plus particulièrement du dernier stade larvaire, des modèles de simulation du développement de Pandemis heparana (Denn. et Schiff.) et Adoxophyes orana (F.v.R.) ont été élaborés à partir d'expériences et en se basant sur des résultats de la littérature.Le modèle est basé sur l'examen de la variable d'état, la température étant la variable discriminante suivie.Les courbes simulées d'apparition des larves de dernier stade, des nymphes et des papillons correspondent aux observations faites sur les larves récoltées dans la nature et élevées jusqu'au stade adulte dans un insectarium en plein air.Le taux de capture dans les pièges à phéromone présente un retard par rapport aux courbes calculées et observées pour l'éclosion des nymphes. Différentes causes peuvent être attribuées à cette différence, mais l'influence d'aucune d'elles n'a été étudiée.Afin de déterminer si le moment de l'application d'IGR peut être lié à une somme de températures, les courbes d'apparition des larves de dernier stade ont été étudiées en relation avec les sommes de températures portant sur plusieurs années. Les observations concernant l'apparition des larves de dernier stade ne couvrant que 2 années, des courbes simulées ont été utilisées à cet effet. L'emploid de la relation liant le moment de l'apparition à la somme des températures permet de n'avoir à calculer que les sommes de températures pour déterminer le moment opportun de l'application des IGR.

     

Aedes aegypti: model for blood finding strategy and prediction of parasite manipulation

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes salivate during intradermal probing of vertebrate prey before ingesting blood (Griffiths and Gordon 1952). Nonsalivating mosquitoes locate blood more slowly; this difference was ascribed to an anti-platelet activity found in the mosquito's saliva (Ribeiro et al. 1984). Mosquitoes infected with Plasmodium gallinaceum suffer pathology that specifically impairs saliva anti-hemostatic activity but without reducing volume of output (Rossignol et al. 1984). The complexity of the feeding apparatus of mosquitoes provides opportunity for a variety of strategies in which pathogens may produce specific lesions that enhance their transmission, but the variables that affect the duration of probing by mosquitoes have not been defined. We sought to resolve this complexity by identifying and quantifying relevant parameters of probing behavior. Mosquitoes thrust their mouthparts repeatedly through their host's skin while searching for blood. Female A. aegypti thrust at 7-sec intervals. If this search results in success, feeding ensues. Alternatively, the mosquito "desists," the mouthparts stylets are withdrawn, and the mosquito attempts to feed at another site. Even after previous desistance, the probability of finding blood remains undiminished. Functions for the probability of feeding success and desistance over time were derived using data from observations on 300 mosquitoes. The probability of feeding success was interpreted as being a function of the density of vessels in the skin, their geometric distribution, and the conditions locally affecting hemostasis. During each probe, the probability of desisting increased linearly with time, and after desisting once, mosquitoes tended to desist more rapidly. A model was developed incorporating Monte Carlo simulation which closely fit observed data. By changing values for the several parameters of the probability functions, we predicted modes in which parasites may manipulate their hosts to enhance transmission, both to and from the vector. In particular, parasite strategies in the vector would include induced salivary pathology; increased duration of probing thrusts; decreased desistance time; and inhibited phagoreception. Predicted parasite strategies in the reservoir host would include increased skin vascular volume and impaired host hemostasis. Our model supports the hypothesis of a mutualistic interaction of malaria and mosquitoes.     

A comparison of the accuracy and precision of several open-water oxygen productivity techniques

Several methods for the estimation of the reaeration coefficient were compared by determining the ability of the methods to recover the correct K value from a computer-simulated stream oxygen record affected by a variety of non-ideal conditions. Noisy data and long observation intervals were not a serious problem for most methods. Saturating photosynthesis, fluctuating light intensity, afternoon depression and temperature variation caused failures by some methods but were well handled by others. Serious impairment of all methods occurred with low productivity or high K. In general, the best-performing methods were the modified hysteresis, nighttime regression, daytime regression, Odum and Hornberger-Kelly daytime methods.     

Growth and development of immature life stages ofPropylaea 14-punctata L. andCoccinella 7-punctata L. [Col.: Coccinellidae] simulated by the metabolic pool model

The conversion of aphid prey tissue (Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris) into predator biomass (immature life stages ofPropylaea 14-punctata L. andCoccinella 7-punctata L.) is calculated by plotting weight gain against assimilation (i.e. consumption minus egestion). This concept is added to the metabolic pool model byGutierrez et al. (1981) that enables the simulation of growth and development of a predator on a physiological basis. Physiological time is expressed in daydegrees above lower development thresholds for both species. Visual examination of observed and calculated values showed that the model satisfactorily describes the growth patterns of the above predators.      

A Monte Carlo method for the simulation of kinetie models

The purpose of this note is to illustrate the feasibility of simulating kinetic systems, such as commonly encountered in photosynthesis research, using the Monte Carlo (MC) method. In this approach, chemical events are considered at the molecular level where they occur randomly and the macroscopic kinetic evolution results from averaging a large number of such events. Their repeated simulation is easily accomplished using digital computing. It is shown that the MC approach is well suited to the capabilities and resources of modern microcomputers. A software package is briefly described and discussed, allowing a simple programming of any kinetic model system and its resolution. The execution is reasonably fast and accurate; it is not subject to such instabilities as found with the conventional analytical approach.Abbreviations MC Monte Carlo - RN random number - PSU photosynthetic unit Dedicated to Prof. L.N.M. Duysens on the occasion of his retirement.     

Regional environmental simulation of African cattle herding societies

Regional analyses of the interaction between human populations and natural resources must integrate landscape scale environmental problems. An approach that considers human culture, environmental processes, and resource needs offers an appropriate methodology. With this methodology, we analyze problems of food availability in African cattle-keeping societies. The analysis interrelates cattle biomass, forage availability, milk and blood production, crop yields, gathering, food subsidies, population, and variable precipitation. While an excess of cattle leads to overgrazing, cattle also serve as valuable food storage mechanisms during low rainfall periods. Food subsidies support higher population levels but do not alter drought-induced population fluctuations. Variable precipitation patterns require solutions that stabilize year-to-year food production and also address problems of overpopulation.     

Simulation of marked root hair curling in Rhizobium-legume symbiosis

The soil bacterium Rhizobium infects its leguminous host plants in temperate regions of the world mostly by way of the growing root hairs. Root hair curling is a prerequisite for root hair infection, although sidelong root hair infections occasionally have been observed. The processes underlying Rhizobium -induced root hair curling are unknown.
Computer simulation of root hair growth indicates that one-sided tip growth inhibition by Rhizobium can result in root hair curling when three conditions are simultaneously fulfilled: 1) rhizobial growth inhibition is strong enough to prevent removal out of the tip growth range: 2) root hair surface growth between the attached Rhizobium and the root hair top is inhibited; 3) rhizobial growth inhibition is limited to one side of the root hair.
The results predict that root hair curling by stimulation of tip growth is improbable. This study accentuates the need for information about the growth processes contributing to tip growth in leguminous root hairs.     

Ion-specific diffusion rates through transmembrane protein channels. A molecular dynamics study

The migration of different alkali metal cations through a transmembrane model channel is simulated by means of the molecular dynamics technique. The parameters of the model are chosen in close relation to the gramicidin A channel. Coulomb- and van der Waals-type potentials between the ions and flexible carbonyl groups of the pore-forming molecule are used to describe the ion channel interaction. The diffusion properties of the ions are obtained from three-dimensional trajectory calculations. The diffusion rates for the different ions Li+, Na+, K+ and Rb+ are affected not only by the mass of the particles but also very strongly by their size. The latter effect is more pronounced for rigid channels, i.e., for binding vibrational frequencies of the CO groups with v greater than 400 cm-1. In this range the selectivity sequence for the diffusion rates is the inverse of that expected from normal rate theory but agrees with that found in experiments for gramicidin A.