Weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS): an improved method for reconstructing environmental variables from species assemblages

Weighted averaging regression and calibration form a simple, yet powerful method for reconstructing environmental variables from species assemblages. Based on the concepts of niche-space partitioning and ecological optima of species (indicator values), it performs well with noisy, species-rich data that cover a long ecological gradient (>3 SD units). Partial least squares regression is a linear method for multivariate calibration that is popular in chemometrics as a robust alternative to principal component regression. It successively selects linear components so as to maximize predictive power. In this paper the ideas of the two methods are combined. It is shown that the weighted averaging method is a form of partial least squares regression applied to transformed data that uses the first PLS-component only. The new combined method, ast squares, consists of using further components, namely as many as are useful in terms of predictive power. The further components utilize the residual structure in the species data to improve the species parameters (optima) in the final weighted averaging predictor. Simulations show that the new method can give 70% reduction in prediction error in data sets with low noise, but only a small reduction in noisy data sets. In three real data sets of diatom assemblages collected for the reconstruction of acidity and salinity, the reduction in prediction error was zero, 19% and 32%.     

Environmental factors affecting the lipid metabolism in Rosmarinus officinalis L

The effect of some environmental factors on the lipid metabolism was studied in two chemotypes of Rosmarinus officinalis L. Epicuticular hydrocarbons (EH), epicuticular fatty acids (EFA), whole leaf fatty acids (WLFA) and essential oils (EO) were extracted and analysed by GC-MS during winter 1991–1992 and related to temperature and moisture variations. Leaf fresh and dry wts were determined along with some morphophysiological parameters such as specific leaf weight (SLW) and specific leaf area (SLA). Leaf areas were calculated by image analysis and statistically processed as for chemical data. The results indicated that in R. officinalis the response to some environmental factors, with particular reference to temperature and moisture, was an increase in epicuticular hydrocarbons and a decrease in epicuticular fatty acids, leaf fatty acids and essential oils. Qualitative changes in the chemical composition of the above lipid classes were found to be correlated with temperature changes. From a chemosystematic viewpoint, a clear separation between the two chemotypes was achieved only when epicuticular hydrocarbons and essential oils were considered as chemosystematic characters.     

Different trends and divergent responses to climate factors in the radial growth of Abies georgei along elevations in the central Hengduan Mountains

Climate change has been unprecedented in the last half-century. Tree growth dynamics and responses to climate warming at different elevations vary by study area due to regional diversity in site-specific climatic conditions in the central Hengduan Mountains. A. georgei is the dominant species in high-elevation montane forests in the central Hengduan Mountains. To study the response of A. georgei radial growth to climate and identify tree growth trends at different elevations, tree-ring width chronologies at four elevations across the subalpine A. georgei forest belt were built and growth-climate relationships were analyzed. The primary findings of this study were as follows: (1) radial growth rates of A. georgei decreased with elevation; (2) warming alleviated the limitation of low temperatures and abundant precipitation on tree radial growth at the highest sampling site; and (3) unlike at other elevations, the trend of trees basal area increment (BAI) at the lowest sampling site showed a significant decline over the past 20 years. This suggests the presence of an elevational inflection point, likely between 3800 m and 4000 m, where tree growth trends diverge. These results confirmed that A. georgei at higher elevation in the central Hengduan Mountains currently benefits from higher temperatures. However, the effects of drought on A. georgei at lower elevations would cause radial growth to decrease with climate warming. Therefore, it is critical to establish effective management strategies based on how A. georgei responds to climate change at various elevations.     

Ecological and methodological drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth response to climate

Radial tree growth is sensitive to environmental conditions, making observed growth increments an important indicator of climate change effects on forest growth. However, unprecedented climate variability could lead to non-stationarity, that is, a decoupling of tree growth responses from climate over time, potentially inducing biases in climate reconstructions and forest growth projections. Little is known about whether and to what extent environmental conditions, species, and model type and resolution affect the occurrence and magnitude of non-stationarity. To systematically assess potential drivers of non-stationarity, we compiled tree-ring width chronologies of two conifer species, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, distributed across cold, dry, and mixed climates. We analyzed 147 sites across the Europe including the distribution margins of these species as well as moderate sites. We calibrated four numerical models (linear vs. non-linear, daily vs. monthly resolution) to simulate growth chronologies based on temperature and soil moisture data. Climate–growth models were tested in independent verification periods to quantify their non-stationarity, which was assessed based on bootstrapped transfer function stability tests. The degree of non-stationarity varied between species, site climatic conditions, and models. Chronologies of P. sylvestris showed stronger non-stationarity compared with Picea abies stands with a high degree of stationarity. Sites with mixed climatic signals were most affected by non-stationarity compared with sites sampled at cold and dry species distribution margins. Moreover, linear models with daily resolution exhibited greater non-stationarity compared with monthly-resolved non-linear models. We conclude that non-stationarity in climate–growth responses is a multifactorial phenomenon driven by the interaction of site climatic conditions, tree species, and methodological features of the modeling approach. Given the existence of multiple drivers and the frequent occurrence of non-stationarity, we recommend that temporal non-stationarity rather than stationarity should be considered as the baseline model of climate–growth response for temperate forests.     

The role of ecosystem transpiration in creating alternate moisture regimes by influencing atmospheric moisture convergence

The terrestrial water cycle links the soil and atmosphere moisture reservoirs through four fluxes: precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and atmospheric moisture convergence (net import of water vapor to balance runoff). Each of these processes is essential for sustaining human and ecosystem well-being. Predicting how the water cycle responds to changes in vegetation cover remains a challenge. Recently, changes in plant transpiration across the Amazon basin were shown to be associated disproportionately with changes in rainfall, suggesting that even small declines in transpiration (e.g., from deforestation) would lead to much larger declines in rainfall. Here, constraining these findings by the law of mass conservation, we show that in a sufficiently wet atmosphere, forest transpiration can control atmospheric moisture convergence such that increased transpiration enhances atmospheric moisture import and results in water yield. Conversely, in a sufficiently dry atmosphere increased transpiration reduces atmospheric moisture convergence and water yield. This previously unrecognized dichotomy can explain the otherwise mixed observations of how water yield responds to re-greening, as we illustrate with examples from China's Loess Plateau. Our analysis indicates that any additional precipitation recycling due to additional vegetation increases precipitation but decreases local water yield and steady-state runoff. Therefore, in the drier regions/periods and early stages of ecological restoration, the role of vegetation can be confined to precipitation recycling, while once a wetter stage is achieved, additional vegetation enhances atmospheric moisture convergence and water yield. Recent analyses indicate that the latter regime dominates the global response of the terrestrial water cycle to re-greening. Evaluating the transition between regimes, and recognizing the potential of vegetation for enhancing moisture convergence, are crucial for characterizing the consequences of deforestation as well as for motivating and guiding ecological restoration.     

Low species turnover of upland Amazonian birds in the absence of physical barriers

Aim

One of the oldest and most powerful ways for ecologists to explain distinct biological communities is to invoke underlying environmental differences. But in hyper-diverse systems, which often display high species richness and low species abundance, these sorts of community comparisons are especially challenging. The classic view for Amazonian birds posits that riverine barriers and habitat specialization determine local and regional community composition. We test the tacit, complementary assumption that similar bird communities should therefore permeate uniform habitat between major rivers, regardless of distance.

Location

Upland (terra firme) rainforests of central Amazonia.

Methods

We conducted intensive whole-community surveys of birds in three pairs of 100-ha plots, separated by 40–60 km. We then used dissimilarity indices, cluster analysis, and ordination to characterize differences among the six avian communities.

Results

In all, we detected 244 forest-dependent birds, with an average of 190 species (78%) per plot. Species turnover was negligible, no unique indicator species were found among plot pairs, and all documented species were already known from a complete inventory at one of the three sites.

Main Conclusions

Our study corroborates the classic biogeographical pattern and suggests that turnover contributes little to regional avian diversity within upland forests. Using a grain size of 100 ha, this implies that upland birds perceive the environment as uniform, at least over distances of ~60 km. Therefore, to maximize both local species richness and population persistence, our findings support the conservation of very large tracts of upland rainforest. Our analyses also revealed that the avifauna at Reserva Ducke, encroached by urban sprawl from the city of Manaus, shows the hallmarks of a disturbed community, with fewer vulnerable insectivores. This defaunation signals that even an enormous preserve (10 × 10 km) in lowland Amazonia is not insulated from anthropogenic degradation within the surrounding landscape.     

Avian diversity and function across the world's most populous cities

Understanding the composition of urban wildlife communities is crucial to promote biodiversity, ecosystem function and links between nature and people. Using crowdsourced data from over five million eBird checklists, we examined the influence of urban characteristics on avian richness and function at 8443 sites within and across 137 global cities. Under half of the species from regional pools were recorded in cities, and we found a significant phylogenetic signal for urban tolerance. Site-level avian richness was positively influenced by the extent of open forest, cultivation and wetlands and avian functional diversity by wetlands. Functional diversity co-declined with richness, but groups including granivores and aquatic birds occurred even at species-poor sites. Cities in arid areas held a higher percentage of regional species richness. Our results indicate commonalities in the influence of habitat on richness and function, as well as lower niche availability, and phylogenetic diversity across the world's cities.     

Disentangling the historical routes to community assembly in the global epicentre of biodiversity

Aim

The exceptional turnover in biota with elevation and number of species coexisting at any elevation makes tropical mountains hotspots of biodiversity. However, understanding the historical processes through which species arising in geographical isolation (i.e. allopatry) assemble along the same mountain slope (i.e. sympatry) remains a major challenge. Multiple models have been proposed including (1) the sorting of already elevationally divergent species, (2) the displacement of elevation upon secondary contact, potentially followed by convergence, or (3) elevational conservatism, in which ancestral elevational ranges are retained. However, the relative contribution of these processes to generating patterns of elevational overlap and turnover is unknown.

Location

Tropical mountains of Central- and South-America.

Time Period

The last 12 myr.

Major Taxa Studied

Birds.

Methods

We collate a dataset of 165 avian sister pairs containing estimates of phylogenetic age, geographical and regional elevational range overlap. We develop a framework based on continuous-time Markov models to infer the relative frequency of different historical pathways in explaining present-day overlap and turnover of sympatric species along elevational gradients.

Results

We show that turnover of closely related bird species across elevation can predominantly be explained by displacement of elevation ranges upon contact (81%) rather than elevational divergence in allopatry (19%). In contrast, overlap along elevation gradients is primarily (88%) explained by conservatism of elevational ranges rather than displacement followed by elevational expansion (12%).

Main Conclusions

Bird communities across elevation gradients are assembled through a mix of processes, including the sorting, displacement and conservatism of species elevation ranges. The dominant role of conservatism in explaining co-occurrence of species on mountain slopes rejects more complex scenarios requiring displacement followed by expansion. The ability of closely related species to coexist without elevational divergence provides a direct and faster pathway to sympatry and helps explain the exceptional species richness of tropical mountains.     

Biological effects of salinity gradient reversals in a southeast African estuarine lake

St Lucia Lake on the north coast of Natal, South Africa, has an area of 325 km² and is the largest estuarine complex in Africa. It consists of a 20 km tidal channel, averagingca. 400 m in width, linking the sea with the non-tidal lake which is H-shaped with a maximum length ofca. 40 km and width ofca. 20 km. Except during flood periods the depth of the lake does not exceed 2 m. The salinity gradient depends on evaporation, the configuration of the mouth and on the input of fresh water from four rivers which discharge into the northern and western areas of the lake. If fresh water input is high, the lake and much of the channel may be fresh. An intermediate stage features a normal salinity gradient while a third stage shows a reversed salinity gradient with salinities in excess of 100‰ in the upper reaches of the system. Changing salinities have marked effects on the biota. Aquatic macrophytes show cycles of appearance and disappearance depending on salinity tolerance and the presence of dormant stages. The resident benthic faunal species go through cycles of range expansion and contraction depending on prevailing salinities and recolonisation by dispersal phases. To date salinities in the southern part of the lake have approached, but not exceeded, lethal levels and this has therefore acted as a reservoir area. Catchment degradation and water abstraction are anticipated to exacerbate future salinity extremes. This has resulted in concern for the long term viability of this Ramsar site which has major southern African populations of hippopotamus and crocodile, provides breeding sites for South African Red Data water bird species and plays an important nursery role for marine fish and penaeid prawns.