鄂尔多斯高原生态过渡带气候特殊性和气候植物生长指数与畜牧业生产动态分析

鄂尔多斯高原位于我国典型的生态过渡带,气候变化明显,系统反应敏感,因此,现有的主要用于植被和气候空间分类的有关植物与气候关系的模型和指数,均不适合用于鄂尔多斯高原生态过渡带气候。植物动态分析。为此,本文利用位于鄂尔多斯高原中部的伊金霍洛旗３９ａ（１９５３－１９９１）气象资料,分析该地区的气候特点,构建一个可用于描述生态过渡带气候特征的气候植物生长指数,并用与植被动态密切相关的天然放牧条件下（１９５８－１９７９）,该旗牲畜的存栏数和出栏数的历史资料代替植被动态资料,进行鄂尔多斯气候植物生长指数与天然放牧条件下牲畜的存栏数和出栏数的动态分析,构建其ＡＲＭＡＸ模型。研究结果表明,鄂尔多斯高原气候敏感易变,降水年际变化大;高原光、温、水配合并不完全一致,光、温超前,降水滞后,天然植被生产力不高;气候植物生长指数与畜牧生产的动态分析结果表明,该地区在天然放牧情况下,主要依赖于牧场植被长势的畜牧生产与气候－植物生长指数密切相关,说明构建的气候植物生长指数确实在一定程度上反映了该地区的气候与植物生长的关系￣（６－８）。     

Enantiomerization of 2,2′-diisopropylbiphenyl during chiral inclusion gas chromatography: Determination of the rotational energy barrier by computer simulation of dynamic chromatographic elution profiles

By computer simulation of experimental dynamic gas chromatographic elution profiles, the rotational energy barrier ΔG⁼ of racemic 2,2′-diisopropylbiphenyl has been determined as 114.6–115.0 kJ/mol (75–100°C). These data are in good agreement with a value that was determined previously by measuring the racemization kinetics of an enriched sample. This indicates that there is no measurable catalytic or inhibitory effect of the stationary phase. © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

高寒草甸生态系统中牦牛体重和采食量动态模型的研究

高寒草甸生态系统中牦牛体重和采食量动态模型的研究黄大明（清华大学生物科学与技术系,北京１０００８４）赵松岭（兰州大学,兰州７３００００）Ｄｙｎａｍｉｃｍｏｄｅｌｓｏｆｙａｋｌｉｖｅｗｅｉｇｈｔａｎｄｉｔｓｉｎｔａｋｅｉｎａｌｐｉｎｅｍｅａｄｏｗｅｃｏ...     

The Value of a hoard: not just energy

We present a stochastic dynamic programming model of the contributionof stored food to winter survival. Using the acorn woodpecker(Melanerpes formtcivorus) as a model organism, we demonstratethat a hoard of small energetic value can impart considerableimprovement in the probability of surviving the winter and soimprove fitness. With this model we hope to resolve Koenig andMumme's paradox, that acorn woodpeckers expend much time andeffort to create and maintain hoards of acorns which provideno more that 16% of their energetic needs over the period inwhich they are used. We further demonstrate that the contributionof hoarded acorns to survival depends on the variability inforaging outcome, independently of the energetic value of thehoard in absolute terms. We point out that the results applyin principle to all hoarding animals and suggest a number offurther elaborations of the model.     

Site fidelity in predictable and unpredictable habitats

Summary Site fidelity, the tendency to return to a previously occupied location, has been observed in numerous species belonging to at least three phyla. In this paper I develop a general model using dynamic programming to investigate conditions under which fidelity to a previously occupied territory will be advantageous. The results predict that site fidelity should be inversely related to heterogeneity in territory quality and the animal's lifespan and positively related to the cost of changing territories, age and probability of mortality in the habitat. The predictability of reproductive outcome (defined as the probability that next period's outcome will be the same as this period's outcome) also affects site fidelity. In predictable habitats, changing territories may be favoured after a bad previous outcome. In contrast, settlement should be independent of the previous outcome in unpredictable habitats. Individuals should also be site-faithful in unpredictable habitats, as long as the mean territory quality is equal among available territories. I also investigate the success of two potential decision rules (always stay and win-stay: lose-switch) relative to the optimal settlement strategy. The results show that these rules may perform as well as the optimal strategy under certain conditions. The always stay strategy does well in unpredictable habitats, when the mean quality within a territory is equal among territories. In contrast, the win-stay: lose-switch strategy performs best in predictable habitats.     

福州地区桑白蚧发生动态和药剂防治试验

桑白蚧在福州地区一年发生4代．以雌成虫在寄主枝干上越冬．越冬代(第4代)一雌虫产卵量多的达278粒．少的36粒,平均171粒,比第2代产卵量多2．6倍．比第3代多4．5倍．药剂防治试验结果,在2龄幼蚧高峰期,用25％扑虱灵可温性粉剂1500倍液,40％氧化乐果乳油800-1000倍液和95%机油乳剂50—100倍液喷雾．防治效果可达90％左右．用25％扑虱是可湿性粉剂1000-1500倍液．喷酒幼蚕触杀试验和喷洒桑叶喂蚕胃毒试验结果．对幼蚕安全．用扑虱灵防治桑树上的桑白蚧,对养蚕业无不良影响。     

Experimental evidence of size-selective harvest and environmental stochasticity effects on population demography,fluctuations and non-linearity

Theory and analyses of fisheries data sets indicate that harvesting can alter population structure and destabilise non-linear processes, which increases population fluctuations. We conducted a factorial experiment on the population dynamics of Daphnia magna in relation to size-selective harvesting and stochasticity of food supply. Harvesting and stochasticity treatments both increased population fluctuations. Timeseries analysis indicated that fluctuations in control populations were non-linear, and non-linearity increased substantially in response to harvesting. Both harvesting and stochasticity induced population juvenescence, but harvesting did so via the depletion of adults, whereas stochasticity increased the abundance of juveniles. A fitted fisheries model indicated that harvesting shifted populations towards higher reproductive rates and larger-magnitude damped oscillations that amplify demographic noise. These findings provide experimental evidence that harvesting increases the non-linearity of population fluctuations and that both harvesting and stochasticity increase population variability and juvenescence.     

Factors controlling the population dynamics of the clonal helophyte Ranunculus lingua

Abstract. Two marginal and two central populations of the pseudo-annual aquatic plant Ranunculus lingua were studied over four years. The main purpose was to quantify potentially influential abiotic and biotic factors and to derive predictions about life-history differences between the populations. Variation in abundance and height of R. lingua ramets at different depths were related to water-level fluctuations, to abundance of other helophyes (emergent macrophytes), and to the occurrence of invertebrate grazing and fungal pathogens. Clear differences between marginal and central populations were shown in the depth distribution of ramet numbers and ramet heights, as well as in the dynamic patterns, where marginal populations had a higher flux of ramets. These patterns and regression analyses indicated that abiotic factors have a greater influence in marginal populations, whereas biotic factors are more important in central populations. It is suggested that marginal habitats for R. lingua would favour life-histories with a high reproductive capacity, whereas a large size of ramet would be the most important life-history feature in central habitats. This was supported by the fact that ramets in marginal populations, in spite of their smaller size, produced higher number of rhizomes than ramets in central populations. Variation in regional abundance was finally related to differences in demographic processes and dispersal potential between the populations.     

Estimating tree-based dynamic treatment regimes using observational data with restricted treatment sequences

A dynamic treatment regime (DTR) is a sequence of decision rules that provide guidance on how to treat individuals based on their static and time-varying status. Existing observational data are often used to generate hypotheses about effective DTRs. A common challenge with observational data, however, is the need for analysts to consider “restrictions” on the treatment sequences. Such restrictions may be necessary for settings where (1) one or more treatment sequences that were offered to individuals when the data were collected are no longer considered viable in practice, (2) specific treatment sequences are no longer available, or (3) the scientific focus of the analysis concerns a specific type of treatment sequences (eg, “stepped-up” treatments). To address this challenge, we propose a restricted tree–based reinforcement learning (RT-RL) method that searches for an interpretable DTR with the maximum expected outcome, given a (set of) user-specified restriction(s), which specifies treatment options (at each stage) that ought not to be considered as part of the estimated tree-based DTR. In simulations, we evaluate the performance of RT-RL versus the standard approach of ignoring the partial data for individuals not following the (set of) restriction(s). The method is illustrated using an observational data set to estimate a two-stage stepped-up DTR for guiding the level of care placement for adolescents with substance use disorder.     

Pattern-based clustering of daily weigh-in trajectories using dynamic time warping

“Smart”-scales are a new tool for frequent monitoring of weight change as well as weigh-in behavior. These scales give researchers the opportunity to discover patterns in the frequency that individuals weigh themselves over time, and how these patterns are associated with overall weight loss. Our motivating data come from an 18-month behavioral weight loss study of 55 adults classified as overweight or obese who were instructed to weigh themselves daily. Adherence to daily weigh-in routines produces a binary times series for each subject, indicating whether a participant weighed in on a given day. To characterize weigh-in by time-invariant patterns rather than overall adherence, we propose using hierarchical clustering with dynamic time warping (DTW). We perform an extensive simulation study to evaluate the performance of DTW compared to Euclidean and Jaccard distances to recover underlying patterns in adherence time series. In addition, we compare cluster performance using cluster validation indices (CVIs) under the single, average, complete, and Ward linkages and evaluate how internal and external CVIs compare for clustering binary time series. We apply conclusions from the simulation to cluster our real data and summarize observed weigh-in patterns. Our analysis finds that the adherence trajectory pattern is significantly associated with weight loss.