Detection of activity cycles of tsetse from capture–recapture data

ABSTRACT.

• 1 Activity cycles of female tsetse (Glossina palpalis palpalis Robineau-Desvoidy) in the field are contrasted with those of males, using mark-release-recapture data from continuous biconical trap samples over a period of 80 days in two villages in Ivory Coast.
• 2 Variability in recapture rates was examined using the techniques of autocorrelation and spectral analysis. In order to do this a two-dimensional diffusion model incorporating both mortality and emigration was first fitted to corrected recapture rate data to produce a trend line, deviations from which were subjected to the analysis.
• 3 The autocorrelations for the data for males suggest considerable variability in activity, presumably associated with feeding, around a mean period of about 4 days in one village and seven in the other.
• 4 Data for females show a strong regular periodicity of about 9–10 days, reflecting the pregnancy cycle, and shorter, more variable periodicities probably corresponding to feeding.

     

The demography ofClethrionomys rufocanus: From mathematical and statistical models to further field studies

Until recently, most studies on microtines have focused on patterns in population dynamics or demography without providing a quantitative assessment of the robustness of the inferred patterns as well as a link between demography and population dynamics. Developments in statistical time-series analysis on the one hand and in capture-recapture statistical modelling on the other hand, now allow for improved analyses. We review some of the recent developments in the capture-recapture statistical methodology — restricting ourselves to methods most relevant to the demography of small mammals. A 5-years study of the gray-sided voleClethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan was used as an example to explore some models. We then provided a framework for further demographic analysis of microtine populations, includingC. rufocanus. Investigating the relative importance of the different demographic parameters (e.g. survival, maturation, dispersal) will require studies done on larger scale than is commonly done today, with more effort devoted to the low density phase. Special emphasis is given to study-design, and to experimental designs tailored to the study of specific demographic mechanisms.     

SURVIVAL ESTIMATES FOR FLORIDA MANATEES FROM THE PHOTO-IDENTIFICATION OF INDIVIDUALS

We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) in four regional populations using photoidentification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727–0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827–0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946–0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.     

Recommendations for estimating mark rate of cetaceans in photo-ID research: A critique of field sampling protocols and variance estimation

Mark rate, or the proportion of the population with unique, identifiable marks, must be determined in order to estimate population size from photographic identification data. In this study we address field sampling protocols and estimation methods for robust estimation of mark rate and its uncertainty in cetacean populations. We present two alternatives for estimating the variance of mark rate: (1) a variance estimator for clusters of unequal sizes (SRCS) and (2) a hierarchical Bayesian model (SRCS-Bayes), and compare them to the simple random sampling (SRS) variance estimator. We tested these variance estimators using a simulation to see how they perform at varying mark rates, number of groups sampled, photos per group, and mean group sizes. The hierarchical Bayesian model outperformed the frequentist variance estimators, with the true mark rate of the population held in its 95% HDI 91.9% of the time (compared with coverage of 79% for the SRS method and 76.3% for the SRCS-Cochran method). The simulation results suggest that, ideally, mark rate and its precision should be quantified using hierarchical Bayesian modeling, and researchers should attempt to sample as many unique groups as possible to improve accuracy and precision.     

大中型兽类种群数量估算的研究进展

大中型兽类种群数量的估算是动物生态学中重要的基本问题, 受到研究者、管理者和公众的共同关注。国际上从20世纪中期开始研究该问题, 已出现了多种研究方法和相应案例, 且还在快速发展, 但世界各地仍有很多物种的种群数量尚未知晓。在我国, 从20世纪80年代开始调查大中型兽类种群数量, 取得了重要进展, 也还有很多物种的种群数量尚不清楚。因此, 有必要归纳国际上种群数量估算的研究进展, 同时, 总结国内研究的现状、优势和趋势, 供研究者参考。本文首先选择估算大中型兽类种群数量的原理、数据来源和模型这3个要素归纳出简明的研究框架, 将现有的多种方法置于其中予以阐述。在该框架下, 根据估算原理分为4大类方法, 为距离取样法、标志重捕法、基于遇见率法和遥感影像直接计数法。针对每一大类方法, 论述其基本原理模型和模型假设, 说明能实现该原理的相应数据来源(视觉观测、红外相机拍摄、DNA微卫星识别、卫星定位跟踪、声音监测或遥感影像)的特点及如何实现该原理, 评价其适用性及优缺点, 并选择其中具有可比性的方法予以比较评价。其次, 参照该研究框架, 总结我国的研究现状, 分析未来发展的优势和趋势: 我国的红外相机数据积累充分, 可以发展以此为数据源的距离取样法、标志重捕法和基于遇见率法; 发展以粪便样品为数据来源的距离取样法和粪便DNA标志重捕法; 相比地面调查数据, 获取高分辨率遥感影像数据更容易, 尽量以此估算符合适用条件的大中型兽类的种群数量。最后, 本文提出了适用于我国大中型兽类种群数量的估算方法的选择流程, 供研究者参考。     

Enigmatic Near-Extirpation in a Boreal Toad Metapopulation in Northwestern Montana

North America's protected lands harbor biodiversity and provide habitats where species threatened by a variety of stressors in other environments can thrive. Yet disease, climate change, and other threats are not limited by land management boundaries and can interact with conditions within protected landscapes to affect sensitive populations. We examined the population dynamics of a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) metapopulation at a wildlife refuge in northwestern Montana, USA, over a 16-year period (2003–2018). We used robust design capture-recapture models to estimate male population size, recruitment, and apparent survival over time and in relation to the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We estimated female population size in years with sufficient captures. Finally, we examined trends in male and female toad body size and condition. We found no evidence of an effect of disease or time on male toad survival but detected a strong negative trend in recruitment of new males to the population. Estimates of male and female abundance decreased over time. Body size of males and females was inversely related to estimated population size, consistent with reduced recruitment to replace adults, but body condition of adult males was only weakly associated with abundance. Together, these results describe the demography of a near-extirpation event, and point to dramatic decreases in the recruitment of new individuals to the breeding population as the cause of this decline. We surmise that processes related to the restoration of historical hydrology within the refuge adversely affected amphibian breeding habitat, and that these changes interacted with disease, life history, and other factors to restrict the recruitment of new individuals to the breeding population over time. Our results point to challenges in understanding and predicting factors that influence population change and highlight that current metrics for assessing population status can have limited predictive ability. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

The Effects of Landscape Characteristics on Northern Bobwhite Density

The northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) is an ecologically and economically valuable species in the United States. Managers rely on autumn density estimates to set harvest regulations, balancing the interests of hunters and long-term bobwhite population viability. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) is a useful framework for estimating population size and modeling spatial variation in density. We used SCR to quantify the effect of landscape structure on spatial variation in density for a population of bobwhites on the Di-Lane Wildlife Management Area in Waynesboro, Georgia, USA. Without additional telemetry or nesting data, we were also able to estimate a spatially explicit metric of productivity. To sample the population, we deployed a fixed array of 395, 262, and 268 funnel traps in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively. We estimated age structure, with the highest density of juveniles (0.32 birds/ha, 95% CI = 0.28–0.37) and adults (0.10 birds/ha, 95% CI = 0.08–0.12) estimated in 2016. In our top model, density was negatively related to the proportion of closed canopy hardwoods. To increase bobwhite density on the landscape, managers should reduce the amount of closed canopy hardwood forest. Furthermore, the spatially explicit age ratio we estimated could be used to target management towards increasing the recruitment of chicks into the autumn population. An SCR approach may require additional logistical and financial resources relative to other data collection methods, but it makes modeling spatial variation in density straightforward and can be used to gather data to simultaneously understand population structure, vital rates, and movement. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Effects of temporary closure of a national park on leopard movement and behaviour in tropical Asia

Across Asia protected areas serve as refuges for carnivores inside human-dominated landscapes. However, the creation of hard edges around reserve boundaries where conflicts with humans arise and disturbance from human activities inside the reserves may affect carnivore behaviour and ecology. Thailand’s largest protected area, Kaeng Krachan National Park (2915 km²) receives >100,000 visitors annually while maintaining an intact assemblage of prey species for large carnivores, making it a potentially important site for population recovery of leopards (Panthera pardus), tigers (Panthera tigris) and dholes (Cuon alpinus). We assessed the abundance of leopards and their prey base, and their response to changes in levels of human activity after an unexpected flooding event that resulted in the park being closed to visitors for >6 months. Using camera-traps, we identified 6 individual leopards and used spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods, incorporating humans and prey as covariates, to test for factors affecting the detection probability of leopards before and after the park closure. Leopard density was unchanged between the two periods, however the movement and activity patterns were clearly different. In the absence of tourist activity, leopards tended to move more frequently, leopard detection rates increased by 70% and activity shifted towards being more diurnal. The consequences of these changes in behaviour may include improved health, reproduction and survival. A management strategy involving seasonal closure of parks may serve to alleviate pressure on leopards and other carnivores. We recommend using information on abundance of large carnivores and their prey species, and human disturbance as the key indicators for long-term monitoring and management of protected areas in Southeast Asia.     

Population size estimation with interval censored counts and external information: Prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Rome

We discuss Bayesian log-linear models for incomplete contingency tables with both missing and interval censored cells, with the aim of obtaining reliable population size estimates. We also discuss use of external information on the censoring probability, which may substantially reduce uncertainty. We show in simulation that information on lower bounds and external information can each improve the mean squared error of population size estimates, even when the external information is not completely accurate. We conclude with an original example on estimation of prevalence of multiple sclerosis in the metropolitan area of Rome, where five out of six lists have interval censored counts. External information comes from mortality rates of multiple sclerosis patients.     

The implication of survival rates in natural populations of Drosophila: capture-recapture experiments on domestic species

Adult survival rates were estimated in field populations of domestic Drosophila species by means of multiple capture-recapture experiments. Micronized fluorescent dusts were used as marking agents and analysis used the Fisher-Ford model: the assumptions of this model are justified using evidence from this study and the literature. Survival rates were commonly 0.45-0.85 per day, suggesting that mean life expectancy for adult flies is from 1.3 to 6.2 days in natural populations. No consistent differences in survival between sexes or seasons were demonstrated. The implications of low natural survival rates are discussed.