A STAGE-BASED MODEL OF MANATEE POPULATION DYNAMICS

A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (λ) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016–1.056) and 1.062 (1.037–1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946–1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988–1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938–0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.     

Winter Habitat Preferences for Florida Manatees and Vulnerability to Cold

To survive cold winter periods most, if not all, Florida manatees rely on warm-water refuges in the southern two-thirds of the Florida peninsula. Most refuges are either warm-water discharges from power plant and natural springs, or passive thermal basins that temporarily trap relatively warm water for a week or more. Strong fidelity to one or more refuges has created four relatively discrete Florida manatee subpopulations. Using statewide winter counts of manatees from 1999 to 2011, we provide the first attempt to quantify the proportion of animals using the three principal refuge types (power plants, springs, and passive thermal basins) statewide and for each subpopulation. Statewide across all years, 48.5% of all manatees were counted at power plant outfalls, 17.5% at natural springs, and 34.9 % at passive thermal basins or sites with no known warm-water features. Atlantic Coast and Southwest Florida subpopulations comprised 82.2% of all manatees counted (45.6% and 36.6%, respectively) with each subpopulation relying principally on power plants (66.6% and 47.4%, respectively). The upper St. Johns River and Northwest Florida subpopulations comprised 17.8% of all manatees counted with almost all animals relying entirely on springs (99.2% and 88.6% of those subpopulations, respectively). A record high count of 5,076 manatees in January 2010 revealed minimum sizes for the four subpopulations of: 230 manatees in the upper St. Johns River; 2,548 on the Atlantic Coast; 645 in Northwest Florida; and 1,774 in Southwest Florida. Based on a comparison of carcass recovery locations for 713 manatees killed by cold stress between 1999 and 2011 and the distribution of known refuges, it appears that springs offer manatees the best protection against cold stress. Long-term survival of Florida manatees will require improved efforts to enhance and protect manatee access to and use of warm-water springs as power plant outfalls are shut down.     

CAPTURE-RECAPTURE ANALYSIS FOR ESTIMATING MANATEE REPRODUCTIVE RATES

Modeling the life history of the endangered Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) is an important step toward understanding its population dynamics and predicting its response to management actions. We developed a multi-state markresighting model for data collected under Pollock's robust design. This model estimates breeding probability conditional on a female's breeding state in the previous year; assumes sighting probability depends on breeding state; and corrects for misclassification of a cow with first-year calf, by estimating conditional sighting probability for the calf. The model is also appropriate for estimating survival and unconditional breeding probabilities when the study area is closed to temporary emigration across years. We applied this model to photo-identification data for the Northwest and Atlantic Coast populations of manatees, for years 1982–2000. With rare exceptions, manatees do not reproduce in two consecutive years. For those without a first-year calf in the previous year, the best-fitting model included constant probabilities of producing a calf for the Northwest (0.43, SE = 0.057) and Atlantic (0.38, SE = 0.045) populations. The approach we present to adjust for misclassification of breeding state could be applicable to a large number of marine mammal populations.     

Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

Meteorological influences on algal bloom potential in a nutrient-rich blackwater river

1. The effect of variability in rainfall on the potential for algal blooms was examined for the St Johns River in northeast Florida. Water chemistry and phytoplankton data were collected at selected sites monthly from 1993 through 2003. Information on rainfall and estimates of water turnover rates were used in the analyses of trends in phytoplankton biomass.
2. Major trends in rainfall and runoff within the lower St Johns River catchment over the 10-year study period were marked by both significant drought and flood periods. Autumn and winter rainfall patterns were strongly correlated with the range of Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies associated with El Niño events and La Niña periods. The effect of these major shifts in rainfall was evident in the strong relationship to replacement rates for water within the lower St Johns River.
3. The eutrophic status of the river was reflected in the high concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus observed at all sampling sites, with total nitrogen concentrations up to 3100  μ g L⁻¹ and total phosphorus concentrations up to 180  μ g L⁻¹.
4. While it is clear that the high phytoplankton biomass and frequent blooms that characterize the freshwater portions of the lower St Johns River are fundamentally based on nutrient status, the expression of that potential was strongly correlated to water replacement rates, as revealed by the inverse relationship between phytoplankton biovolume increase and water turnover rate, with an R ² of 0.80 for the major bloom season. The sensitivity of algal blooms to rainfall patterns over the 10-year study period suggest that longer-term temporal and spatial shifts in rainfall, such as multi-decadal cycles and the global-warming phenomenon, will also influence the frequency and intensity of algal blooms.     

AERIAL VIDEOGRAMMETRY FROM A TETHERED AIRSHIP TO ASSESS MANATEE LIFE-STAGE STRUCTURE

Aerial videogrammetry from an airship tethered to a boat was used to assess the life-stage structure of manatees in the Blue Waters area of the Homosassa River on the west coast of central Florida. Individual frames of videos were loaded onto a computer and lengths of manatees measured using graphics software. All images of manatees were measured independently by three observers. Measurements were transformed to total manatee lengths by calculating the ratio between the measurements of a reference object of known length and the measurement of the manatee. Length estimates were highly variable but were unbiased with respect to observer. Results of an analysis of variance suggested that the hypothesis that lengths differed among days and among observers should not be rejected. Life-stage structures were represented in three schemes. One scheme-which included four life stages: dependent calves, juveniles, animals in tramsition between juvenile and adult, and adults-was included to provide the most information without sacrificing confidence in the life-stage distribution. Overall, the video system was effective at capturing images of manatees for life-stage characterization and, with improvements in image resolution, could become a valuable tool for photo-identification in sight-resight experiments.     

DETERMINATION OF MANATEE POPULATION TRENDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA USING A BAYESIAN APPROACH WITH TEMPERATURE-ADJUSTED AERIAL SURVEY DATA

In many animal population survey studies, the construction of a stochastic model provides an effective way to capture underlying biological characteristics that contribute to the overall variation in the data. In this paper we develop a stochastic model to assess the population trend and abundance of the Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris , along the Atlantic coast of the state, using aerial survey data collected at winter aggregation sites between 1982 and 2001. This model accounts for the method by which the manatees were counted, their movements between surveys, and the behavior of the total population over time. The data suggest an overall increase in the population from 1982 to 1989 of around 5%–7%, a reduction in growth or a leveling off (0%–4% annual growth) from 1990 to 1993, and then an increase again of around 3%–6% since 1994. In winter 2001–2002 (the most recent survey season for which analyses were done), we estimated the adult manatee population along the east coast of Florida to be 1,607 individuals (range = 1,353–1,972; 95% credible interval). Our estimate of manatee abundance corresponds well with maximum counts (approximately 1,600 manatees) produced during synoptic aerial surveys under optimal conditions. Our calculations of trends correspond well with mark and recapture analyses of trends in survival of adult manatees along the east coast through the early 1990s. Our population trend estimates since that time are more optimistic than those generated by mark-recapture models.     

OBSERVATIONS OF FLORIDA MANATEES(TRICHECHUS MANATUS LATIROSTRIS) AROUND SELECTED POWER PLANTS IN WINTER

Sixty-four aerial surveys were flown during cold, winter weather between December 1982 and February 1772 to provide an index of trends in abundance of the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris )around five Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) plants. The surveys documented high winter use of warm-water discharges at four of the plants (Canaveral, Riviera. Port Everglades, and Fort Myers). The total number of manatees sighted at the five primary plants surveyed during a single survey ranged from 6 to 765 manatees (= 330 ± 45 manatees per survey): thus, up to 41% of the total Florida manatee minimum population of 1.850 animals may be found on cold days at FPL plants. The number of calves sighted at the plants during winter has decreased; similarly, for three consecutive years (winter 1989–1970 through winter 1991–1992), the percentage of the manatees that are calves sighted at the plants has decreased. Although data from the surveys of FPL plants do not necessarily reflect what may be happening with manatees located elsewhere in Florida, a possible reduction in calf numbers, coupled with increasing numbers of dead calves being documented by scientists involved in manatee carcass salvage work, is cause for concern in this slow-reproducing, endangered species.     

Size variability of juvenile Atlantic salmon: links to environmental conditions

Climate change models predict a 2 to 6° C increase in air temperature within the next 100 years in the Maritime Provinces of eastern Canada. Higher air temperatures are expected to contribute to increased water temperatures, alterations in stream flow conditions, and ultimately reductions in fish growth. Mean annual size-at-age of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar decreased in the Northwest Miramichi and Southwest Miramichi Rivers between 1971–1999. Lengths-at-age of juveniles were significantly correlated between the two rivers. For Atlantic salmon parr, stronger associations between inter-cohort fork length ( L _F) than intra-cohort L _F were observed, suggesting that environmental conditions in the current year of growth have the more significant effects on size of age 2 year parr than conditions encountered the previous year by age 1 year parr of the same cohort. Fork lengths of parr were significantly and negatively associated with spring air and water temperatures. In the Miramichi River, increases in air and water temperature as predicted from climate change models may adversely affect growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon parr, reducing the overall productivity of the Atlantic salmon populations in this region.     

Range-Wide Piping Plover Survival: Correlated Patterns and Temporal Declines

ABSTRACT Geographically isolated breeding populations of migratory shorebirds may be demographically connected through shared nonbreeding habitats. We used long-term (1998–2008) mark-recapture data on piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) collected from 7 separate studies located throughout North America to conduct a range-wide analysis of after hatch year apparent survival (φ_AHY). Our objectives were to compare concurrent survival estimates from disparate breeding sites and determine whether estimates followed similar trends or were correlated among breeding populations with shared wintering grounds. Average survival estimates were higher for Great Plains populations (range = 0.69–0.81) than for Great Lakes and Atlantic Coast populations (range = 0.56–0.71). Linear trend models indicated that apparent survival declined in 4 out of 7 populations, was unchanged in 3, and was generally highest among Great Plains populations. Based on a post hoc analysis, we found evidence of correlated year-to-year fluctuations in annual survival among populations wintering primarily along the southeastern United States Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast. Our results indicate shared overwintering or stopover sites may influence annual variation in survival among geographically disparate breeding populations. Declines in piping plover survival are a cause for concern, and our results highlight the need for conservation efforts to include habitat used during the migratory and wintering periods.     

A combined inverse method and multivariate approach for exploring population trends of Florida manatees

Given the expense and time required to monitor marine mammal populations effectively, approaches that fully exploit the resulting data certainly are warranted. We employed a two‐step modeling approach to estimate key demographic parameters, including immigration, from aerial surveys of manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in the Northwest management unit of Florida. Abundances of adults and calves were predicted by multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) models, after accounting for heterogeneous detection rates caused by variable environmental conditions. The resulting predictions were incorporated into a stage‐structured, deterministic model that used an inverse method to estimate parameters with and without immigration. The model without immigration estimated mean survival probabilities of 0.966, 0.923, and 0.794 for adults, subadults and calves, respectively, with a per capita reproductive rate of 0.135. These parameter estimates yielded an overall mean population growth rate of approximately 1.037, which is comparable to rates from mark‐recapture studies. When we added an immigration term that accounted for the greater slope in adult counts since 1999, as identified by the MARS model, the estimated per capita reproductive rate was 0.122, with survival probabilities for adults, subadults and calves of 0.926, 0.920, and 0.833, respectively. These rates were coupled with an estimated mean winter immigration rate corresponding to roughly 5.2% of the adult and subadult population. In this latter scenario, the number of manatees in the core population of the Northwest management unit was predicted to remain constant, with a population growth rate near one, and additional manatees counted during aerial surveys were deemed to be immigrants. While further studies could certainly expound on the potential effects of migrants on population indices, we present this first published immigration estimate for wintering manatees in northwest Florida.     

Diet of Atlantic cod in the southern Gulf of St Lawrence as an index of ecosystem change, 1959–2000

Major temporal changes in the importance of euphausiids and Atlantic herring Clupea harengus in the diet of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua , 10–75 cm L _F, occurred in shallow waters (<100 m depths) of the southern Gulf of St Lawrence between 1959 and 2000. Euphausiids represented 6–70% of prey mass for Atlantic cod 31–60 cm L _F from 1959 to 1987 but only trace amounts were detected in stomachs collected from 1990 to 2000. Mysids and gammarid amphipods (for Atlantic cod ≤45 cm L _F), and Atlantic herring (for Atlantic cod >45 cm L _F) largely replaced euphausiids in the Atlantic cod diets from 1990 to 2000. This diet change suggested there has been a major perturbation of the food web of the southern Gulf of St Lawrence. The importance of fishes (mostly Atlantic herring) in the diet of Atlantic cod >45 cm L _F increased significantly between the periods 1959–1980 and 1987–2000. Atlantic herring comprised 0–4% (mean 1.3%) of prey mass of Atlantic cod 46–60 cm L _F from 1959 to 1980 and increased to 2–42% (mean 19.6%) of the diet from 1987 to 2000. Atlantic herring comprised 0–25% (mean 9.4%) of the prey mass of Atlantic cod 61–75 cm L _F from 1959 to 1980 and increased to 42–81% (mean 54.2%) of prey mass from 1987 to 2000. This increased consumption of Atlantic herring was consistent with observed changes in abundance of Atlantic herring in the ecosystem between the late 1970s and 2000. The large changes in consumption of euphausiids and Atlantic herring represent highly significant changes and would need to be included in the development and interpretation of ecosystem-based management models for this ecosystem.     

Annual survival of adult Atlantic Puffins Fratercula arctica is positively correlated with Herring Clupea harengus availability

Atlantic Herring is a keystone species in several marine ecosystems, supporting intensive fisheries as well as many predators including seabirds. Biomass of this stock in eastern North America has declined considerably in recent years, potentially putting at risk populations of its predators. Although adult survival in seabirds is considered robust to moderate changes in food availability, it is also the life‐history component most critical to sustaining populations of long‐lived birds. To investigate the possibility that Atlantic Puffin survival has been affected by reduced abundance of its main prey, we analysed the encounter histories of 2999 Atlantic Puffins ringed on Machias Seal Island to estimate annual adult survival for the years 1999–2011 and assess trends in survival and the effects of several biological and environmental covariates. Features of Puffin biology and resighting procedures likely to introduce heterogeneity into our resighting probabilities were accounted for and models of survival were assessed using standard methods. We used the variance components procedure in Program MARK and survival estimates from a time‐varying model to estimate the process variance (biological variation in survival) accounted for by suspected covariates of survival. Two proxies of food availability each explained more than half of the variation in annual survival: fishery landings of Atlantic Herring (52%) and per cent (by mass) of 1‐group Herring in the diet of Puffin chicks (51%). In addition to these proxies, May sea‐surface temperature accounted for 37% of variance in survival, but winter values of North Atlantic Oscillation showed no effect. Of those parameters of Puffin biology examined, chick growth rate explained 19% of the process variance in annual survival; laying date, fledging condition and fledging date all explained no variance. A decline in fishery landings of Herring since the early 1990s, and a concurrent decline in adult Puffin survival, reinforces concern for the health of the population of Herring, a keystone forage fish in this region, and of the community of marine predators in the Gulf of Maine that rely on Herring for their survival and reproduction.     

Growth and Age of the Roughhead Grenadier <Emphasis Type="Italic">Macrourus berglax</Emphasis> in Waters off Southwest Greenland

Data on the age and growth of the roughhead grenadier Macrourus berglax from waters off Southwest Greenland have been obtained based on the analysis of otoliths. Specimens with a preanal length of 5?39 cm, a weight of 7?5275 g, and age from 2 to 22 years are recorded in trawl catches. Roughhead grenadier exhibits a similar rate of linear growth in waters off Southwest Greenland and other parts of the range in the Northwest Atlantic. No considerable differences from the rate of the linear growth calculated earlier from scales for the species in waters off West Greenland have been found. In the recent period, the rate of weight gain in roughhead grenadier in waters off Southwest Greenland has been lower than in the Northwest Atlantic in the first half of the 1980s. The age of mass maturation in males (7–9 years) and females (16–17 years) in waters off West and East Greenland is somewhat higher than in coastal waters of Norway and the Northwest Atlantic.     

Genetic diversity and effective size of the Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. inhabiting the River Eo (Spain) following a stock collapse

Historic angling records suggest the occurrence of a drastic decline in the River Eo (Spain) Atlantic salmon population size during the past two decades, as a result of overexploitation and habitat deterioration. In recent years, the population has been apparently recovering, and the present study is aimed to report information on the level of genetic diversity and the effective size of the current population as these may have immediate consequences for its conservation. Eighty-six salmon from two temporal groups (1998–1999 and 2004–2006), representing three generations, were genotyped using a panel of eight microsatellites. Inspite of the recent decline in census numbers and the detection of the signs of a population bottleneck, the population exhibits a high level of genetic diversity, similar to that from other populations, and almost unchanged during the period of study [average allelic richness ( A ) = 14·0 and 13·9, and average heterozygosity ( H _e) = 0·843 and 0·851 in 1998–1999 and 2004–2006, respectively]. The effective population size ( N _e) estimated by two different temporal methods showed a consistent value around 80 salmon, whereas the estimates from the linkage disequilibrium (LD) method provided a value around 165 individuals for either sample. The recent growing number of salmon, as indicated by fisheries records, the relatively large estimates of the ratio N _e/ N (with range 0·23–0·44 for the temporal estimates and 0·31–0·59 for the LD estimates) and the high levels of diversity found suggest that the population has not been greatly affected by the historical census declines and can be expected to recover in the future.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of sediment and nutrient accumulation in shallow lakes of the Upper St. Johns River Basin,Florida

We used paleolimnological methods to investigate spatial and temporal patterns of bulk sediment and nutrient (C, N, P) accumulation in Lakes Hell ‘n’ Blazes (A = 154 ha, zmax = 240 cm), Sawgrass (A = 195 ha, zmax = 157 cm) and Washington (A = 1766 ha, zmax = 322 cm), in the Upper St. Johns River Basin, Florida. The study was designed to evaluate long-term changes in sedimentation and nutrient storage in the basin, and was one component of a larger project addressing flood control, wetland restoration, and water quality improvement. These three study lakes are wide, shallow waterbodies in the upper reaches of the St. Johns River channel. Sediment mapping indicates soft, organic deposits are distributed uniformly throughout Lakes Hell ‘n’ Blazes and Sawgrass. In contrast, much of Lake Washington is characterized by sandy bottom, and organic sediment is largely restricted to the north end of the lake. Lakes Hell ‘n’ Blazes and Sawgrass are effective sediment traps because dense submersed macrophytes and their associated epiphytes reduce flow velocity, intercept suspended particles, and utilize dissolved nutrients. Abundant Hydrilla, combined with short fetch, prevents resuspension and downstream transport of sediments. Larger Lake Washington is probably wind-mixed and resuspended organic sediments are redeposited to downstream sites. 210Pb-dated sediment cores show that organic sediment accumulation began in all three lakes before 1900, but that bulk sediment and nutrient accumulation rates have generally increased since then. The increases are probably attributable, in part, to anthropogenic activities including 1) hydrologic modifications that reduced flow rates in the channel, 2) discharge of nutrient-rich waters from urban, agricultural and ranching areas, and, 3) introduction and periodic herbicide treatment of the exotic macrophytes Eichhornia and Hydrilla.     

Temporal variation in abundance, return rate and life histories of previously spawned Atlantic salmon in a large subarctic river

The 30 year time series analyses revealed large temporal variation in the return rates and a recent increase in abundance of previous spawning Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in the River Teno, northern Scandinavia. The mean proportion of repeat spawners was 7 and 4% in the total Atlantic salmon catch and 9 and 22% in multi‐sea‐winter (MSW) catch component for females and males, respectively. Previous spawners constituted on the average 7% of the catch in mass but up to 20%(31 t) and 30%(19 t) in 2003 and in 2004, respectively. In 1975–2000, the proportion of previous spawners varied between 1 and 6%(3–12% of MSW Atlantic salmon), whereas in 2001–2004, they accounted for 8–21%(16–35% of MSW Atlantic salmon) of the total Atlantic salmon catch. The number of previous spawners in the catch correlated significantly with the preceding numbers of respective 1–3 sea‐winter (SW) maiden Atlantic salmon 2 years earlier. The recent increase in the numbers of 1S1 and 2S1 (1 or 2 years at sea followed by first spawning and 1 year reconditioning period at sea) alternate spawning Atlantic salmon was a consequence of higher numbers of maiden 1SW and 2SW Atlantic salmon in the catches and increased sea temperatures. Similarly, the return rate of 1SW Atlantic salmon to second spawning has improved in recent years. Most previous spawners ascended and were captured early in the fishing season. The smolt and sea‐age combinations of repeat spawners comprised 68 age groups contributing with the annual mean of 15 age groups to the great diversity of the River Teno Atlantic salmon population complex.     

Downstream movements of young-of-the-year fishes in Catamaran Brook and the Little Southwest Miramichi River, New Brunswick

Downstream movements of young-of-the-year fish in Catamaran Brook and the Little Southwest Miramichi River, New Brunswick, Canada were monitored by drift sampling during June and July of 1994, 1995 and 1996. Atlantic salmon Salmo salar , white sucker Catostomus commersoni , Cyprinidae, and sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus , were the most commonly captured taxa. All taxa moved downstream almost exclusively at night. Movement was greatest near midnight then declined towards dawn. Drift abundances peaked in mid-June for Atlantic salmon, late June for white sucker, and early July for Cyprinidae. Dates of peak movement were earlier in the Little Southwest Miramichi River than in Catamaran Brook for all taxa. Salmon fry captured in drift samplers were shorter than salmon fry captured by electrofishing near the sampling sites. Salmon fry captured in Catamaran Brook drift samplers were heavier at length than those captured in Little Southwest Miramichi River drift samplers. Results suggest that Catamaran Brook provides relatively better habitat for Atlantic salmon fry growth and relatively poorer habitat for larval white sucker growth than the Little Southwest Miramichi River.     

Spatial and temporal variation in harvest probabilities for American black duck

Assessing spatial variation in waterfowl harvest probabilities from banding data is challenging because reporting and recovery probabilities have distinct spatial patterns that covary temporally with harvesting regulations, hunter effort, and reporting methods. We analyzed direct band recovery data from American black ducks banded on the Canadian breeding grounds from 1970 through 2010. Data were registered to a 1‐degree grid and analyzed using hierarchical logistic regression models with spatially correlated errors to estimate the annual probabilities of band recovery and the proportion of individuals recovered in Canada. Probability of harvest was estimated from these values, in combination with independent estimates of reporting probabilities in Canada and the USA. Model covariates included estimates of hunting effort and factors for harvest regulation and band reporting methods. Both the band recovery processes and the proportion of individuals recovered in Canada had significant spatial structure. Recovery probabilities were highest in southern Ontario, along the Saint Lawrence River in Quebec, and in Nova Scotia. Black ducks breeding in Nova Scotia and southern Quebec were harvested predominantly in Canada. Recovery probabilities for juveniles were correlated with hunter effort, while the adult recoveries were weakly correlated with the implementation of stricter harvest regulations in the early 1980s. Mean harvest probability decreased in the northern portion of the survey area but remained stable or even increased in the south. Harvest probabilities for juveniles in 2010 exceeded 20% in southern Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Our results demonstrate fine‐scale variation in harvest probabilities for black duck on the Canadian breeding ground. In particular, harvest probabilities should be closely monitored along the Saint Lawrence River system and in the Atlantic provinces to avoid overexploitation.