Generalized additive distributed lag models: quantifying mortality displacement

There are a number of applied settings where a response is measured repeatedly over time, and the impact of a stimulus at one time is distributed over several subsequent response measures. In the motivating application the stimulus is an air pollutant such as airborne particulate matter and the response is mortality. However, several other variables (e.g. daily temperature) impact the response in a possibly non-linear fashion. To quantify the effect of the stimulus in the presence of covariate data we combine two established regression techniques: generalized additive models and distributed lag models. Generalized additive models extend multiple linear regression by allowing for continuous covariates to be modeled as smooth, but otherwise unspecified, functions. Distributed lag models aim to relate the outcome variable to lagged values of a time-dependent predictor in a parsimonious fashion. The resultant, which we call generalized additive distributed lag models, are seen to effectively quantify the so-called 'mortality displacement effect' in environmental epidemiology, as illustrated through air pollution/mortality data from Milan, Italy.     

Analysis of exposure-time-response relationships using a spline weight function

To examine the time-dependent effects of exposure histories on disease, we estimate a weight function within a generalized linear model. The shape of the weight function, which is modeled as a cubic B-spline, gives information about the impact of exposure increments at different times on disease risk. The method is evaluated in a simulation study and is applied to data on smoking histories and lung cancer from a recent case-control study in Germany.     

Short-term and long-term effects of mowing on the vegetation of two calcareous fens

Abstract. Short-term field experiments are often used to predict and evaluate long-term management effects. Based on a mowing experiment in two calcareous fens near Lake Neuchâtel, Switzerland, we investigated whether short-term treatment effects (i.e. during the first four years) were confirmed by long-term results (13 - 14 yr). Plots were mown in summer or in winter or left unmown. The main long-term trends in overall species composition (based on percentage cover estimates) were already observable in the first four years: mown and unmown plots diverged, whereas summer-cut and winter-cut plots remained similar. At the individual species level, however, short-term and long-term treatment effects differed considerably: many species whose abundance seemed affected by treatments during the first four years showed no response in the long term, and vice versa. These discrepancies were similar when based on cover estimates or on counts of shoots. Species responses did actually depend on the time scale considered. Short-term and long-term treatment effects on species richness were similar (i.e. a decrease in unmown plots), although only long-term effects were significant. Treatment effects on the above-ground biomass varied considerably, and short-term trends (lower biomass in unmown plots) differed from long-term trends (higher biomass in unmown plots). Our sites showed little overall change in species composition during the period investigated, and treatment effects were low compared with other similar experiments. If study sites are less stable or treatment effects more drastic, a short-term evaluation is expected to be even less reliable. Knowledge on species dynamics at a site may help to choose the adequate spatial and temporal scale of investigation, and thus increase the efficiency of management experiments.     

Rho‐kinase inhibitor Y‐27632 increases cellular proliferation and migration in human foreskin fibroblast cells

The idea of direct differentiation of somatic cells into other differentiated cell types has attracted a great interest recently. Rho‐kinase inhibitor Y‐27632 (ROCKi) is a potential drug molecule, which has been reported to support the gene expressions typical for the chondrocytes, thus restricting their phenotypic conversion to fibroblastic cells upon the cellular expansion. In this study, we have investigated the short‐term biological responses of ROCKi to human primary foreskin fibroblasts. The fibroblast cells were exposed to 1 and 10 μM ROCKi treatments. A proteomics analysis revealed expression changes of 56 proteins, and a further protein pathway analysis suggested their association with the cell morphology, the organization, and the increased cellular movement and the proliferation. These functional responses were confirmed by a Cell‐IQ time‐lapse imaging analysis. Rho‐kinase inhibitor treatment increased the cellular proliferation up to twofold during the first 12 h, and a wound model based migration assay showed 50% faster filling of the mechanically generated wound area. Additionally, significantly less vinculin‐associated focal adhesions were present in the ROCKi‐treated cells. Despite the marked changes in the cell behavior, ROCKi was not able to induce the expression of the chondrocyte‐specific genes, such as procollagen α₁(II) and aggrecan.     

Interaction among Non-toxic Phytoplankton,Toxic Phytoplankton and Zooplankton: Inferences from Field Observations

We explore the mutual dependencies and interactions among different groups of species of the plankton population, based on an analysis of the long-term field observations carried out by our group in the North–West coast of the Bay of Bengal. The plankton community is structured into three groups of species, namely, non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), toxic phytoplankton (TPP) and zooplankton. To find the pair-wise dependencies among the three groups of plankton, Pearson and partial correlation coefficients are calculated. To explore the simultaneous interaction among all the three groups, a time series analysis is performed. Following an Expectation Maximization (E-M) algorithm, those data points which are missing due to irregularities in sampling are estimated, and with the completed data set a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model is analyzed. The overall analysis demonstrates that toxin-producing phytoplankton play two distinct roles: the inhibition on consumption of toxic substances reduces the abundance of zooplankton, and the toxic materials released by TPP significantly compensate for the competitive disadvantages among phytoplankton species. Our study suggests that the presence of TPP might be a possible cause for the generation of a complex interaction among the large number of phytoplankton and zooplankton species that might be responsible for the prolonged coexistence of the plankton species in a fluctuating biomass.     

When carnivores are “full and lazy”

Are animals usually hungry and busily looking for food, or do they often meet their energetic and other needs in the 24 h of a day? Focusing on carnivores, I provide evidence for the latter scenario. I develop a model that predicts the minimum food abundance at which a carnivore reaches satiation and is released from time constraints. Literature data from five invertebrate and vertebrate species suggest that food abundances experienced in the field often exceed this threshold. A comparison of energetic demands to kill rates also suggests that carnivores often reach satiation: for the 16 bird and mammal species analyzed, this frequency is 88% (average across species). Because pressure of time would likely lead to trade-offs in time allocation and thus to a nonsatiating food consumption, these results suggest that carnivores are often released from time constraints.     

弄岗黑叶猴的日活动类型和活动时间分配

2005年10月-2006年9月,用瞬时扫描法对广西弄岗自然保护区内的一群黑叶猴(Trachypithecusfran oisi)的日活动节律和活动时间分配进行研究。结果表明:黑叶猴日活动中出现2个觅食高峰和1个休息高峰。觅食高峰分别出现在7:00-9:00和16:00-18:00;休息高峰出现在10:00-14:00。黑叶猴日活动节律表现出明显的季节性变化,表现为旱季上午的觅食高峰被推迟了1h,且觅食时间长于雨季;旱季下午的觅食活动提前1h结束。猴群在雨季较早进入休息高峰,而且中午休息时很少有移动或零星觅食。研究期间,猴群用于休息的时间平均占日活动时间分配的51.99%,移动占20.25%,觅食占18.61%,理毛占7.61%,玩耍占1.20%,其它行为(包括打斗、交配等)仅占0.14%。活动时间分配有明显的季节性差异,主要表现为:与雨季相比,黑叶猴在旱季花费更多的时间用于觅食和移动,而相应地减少用于休息的时间。活动时间分配在不同年龄和性别的个体之间也存在显著差异,表现为成年个体花费更多的时间用于休息和觅食,未成年个体则花费更多的时间用于移动和玩耍;雌性个体比雄性个体花费更多的时间用于理毛。