Likelihood-based experimental design for estimation of ED50

In selecting the best dosage choice for the estimation of ED50, it is natural to try to minimize the length of the confidence intervals. In this presentation, the dose allocation that minimizes the length of the likelihood-based confidence intervals is presented and compared with alternative allocations that have been proposed based on the length of different types of confidence intervals, such as those based on the asymptotic variance or on Fieller's Theorem. Effective strategies to deal with the parameter dependence of these allocations are explored. A series of experiments to evaluate the effect of small doses per fraction on the radiation tolerance of the rat cervical spinal cord provide the motivation and an illustration for the proposed procedures.     

Detailed four-way comparative mapping and gene order analysis of the canine ctvm locus reveals evolutionary chromosome rearrangements

Canine tricuspid valve malformation (CTVM) maps to canine chromosome 9 (CFA9), in a region syntenic with gene-dense human chromosome 17q. To define synteny blocks, we analyzed 148 markers on CFA9 using radiation hybrid mapping and established a four-way comparative map for human, mouse, rat, and dog. We identified a large number of rearrangements, allowing us to reconstruct the evolutionary history of individual synteny blocks and large chromosomal segments. A most parsimonious rearrangement scenario for all four species reveals that human chromosome 17q differs from CFA9 and the syntenic rodent chromosomes through two macroreversals of 9.2 and 23 Mb. Compared to a recovered ancestral gene order, CFA9 has undergone 11 reversals of <3 Mb and 2 reversals of >3 Mb. Interspecies reuse of breakpoints for micro- and macrorearrangements was observed. Gene order and content of the ctvm interval are best extrapolated from murine data, showing that multispecies genome rearrangement scenarios contribute to identifying gene content in canine mapping studies.     

A study of prey-predator relations for mammals

In this paper, we present a prey-predator nonlinear model for mammals, consisting of large- and small-size prey species with group defence, in a partially protected habitat. If the prey size is small, then it is more prone to the predator at higher densities. Conversely, large prey size at higher densities tend to develop group defence. Therefore, the predator will be attracted towards that area where prey are less in number. A new physical constant has been introduced into the radiation-type condition on that part of the boundary where interaction between prey and predator takes place. This constant allows us to efficiently model group defence capabilities of the herds and its numerical values have to be determined for different pairs of prey-predator species from field observations. A way of measuring the constants involved in the model is suggested. Numerical results are provided and thoroughly discussed for a habitat of circular shape. The obtained results show that in the region away from the protected area, the density of large-size prey species is higher than that of small-size prey species, a fact that is in accordance with observations.     

IRM-2近交系小鼠对电离辐射抗性的研究

目的观察IRM-2小鼠对电离辐射的耐受性.方法分析测定了IRM-2小鼠对137Csγ射线的LD50及经4.0Gy137Csγ射线照射后不同时间外周血白细胞、骨髓有核细胞总数、骨髓细胞DNA含量和脾结节的变化,并与亲代小鼠ICR和615进行了比较.结果用不同剂量的137Csγ射线照射后,IRM-2小鼠对γ射线的LD50比ICR和615小鼠分别高1.73～1.57Gy和1.44Gy;外周血白细胞数和骨髓有核细胞总数、骨髓细胞DNA含量下降的幅度小且恢复得快;CFU-S的增加也较ICR和615小鼠明显.结论IRM-2小鼠比一般的纯系和杂交品系小鼠具有更强的辐射抗性.     

Induction and decline of HPRT mutants and deletions following a low dose radiation exposure at Chernobyl

This study was conducted to evaluate the ability of mutation in the hypoxanthine-phosphoribosyltransferase gene (HPRT) to detect radiation-induced mutation in lymphocytes of Russian Chernobyl Clean-up workers, particularly as a function of time after exposure. It is part of a multi-endpoint study comparing HPRT mutation with chromosome translocation and glycophorin A mutation [Radiat. Res. 148 (1997) 463], and extends an earlier report on HPRT [Mutat. Res. 431 (1999) 233] by including data from all 9 years of our study (versus the first 6 years) and analysis of deletion size. Blood samples were collected from 1991 to 1999. HPRT mutant frequency (MF) as determined by the cloning assay was elevated 16% in Clean-up workers (N=300, the entire group minus one outlier) compared to Russian Controls (N=124) when adjusted for age and smoking status (P=0.028). Since exposures occurred over a short relative to the long sampling period, the year of sampling corresponded roughly to the length of time since exposure (correlation coefficient=0.94). When date of blood sample was considered, Control MF was not time dependent. Clean-up worker MF was estimated to be 47% higher than Control MF in 1991 (P=0.004) and to decline 4.4% per year thereafter (P=0.03). A total of 1123 Control mutants and 2799 Clean-up worker mutants were analyzed for deletion type and size by PCR assay for retention of HPRT exons and flanking markers on the X chromosome. There was little difference between the overall deletion spectra of Clean-up workers and Controls. However, there was a decline in the average size of deletions of Clean-up workers as time after exposure at Chernobyl increased from 6 to 13 years (P< or =0.05). The results illustrate the sensitivity of HPRT somatic mutation as a biomarker for populations with low dose radiation exposure, and the dependence of this sensitivity on time elapsed since radiation exposure.     

Molecular imaging of amyloid beta peptides in mouse brain sections using mass spectrometry

In this paper, a reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatographic method using a chemically modified electrode coupled with microdialysis was developed to study the effect of electromagnetic impulse (EMI) on monoamine neurotransmitter metabolism in nerve cells. To detect the monoamines and their metabolites, a poly (para-aminobenzoic acid) (P-pABA)-modified electrode was prepared. The modified electrode exhibited efficiently electrocatalytic oxidation for monoamines and their metabolites with relatively high sensitivity, stability, and long life. Nerve cells were primarily cultured. EMI was radiated to three experimental model nerve cells: (i) on mature nerve cells, (ii) on the culture medium, and (iii) on juvenile nerve cells for various periods of time. Then the levels of monoamines in the culture medium were detected by high-performance liquid chromatography-electrochemical detection. The data indicated that electromagnetic fields could influence neurotransmitter metabolism by direct effect on nerve cells or effect on the nutrient medium and that the effect was not only relevant with the length of radiation time, but also with the growing state of the nerve cells.     

DNA fragmentation and morphological changes in apoptotic human lymphocytes

Cell suspensions enriched in cells at various stages of apoptosis were obtained by separation of irradiated human peripheral blood lymphocytes on density gradients at different post-irradiation times. The state of DNA fragmentation in the cells was determined by comet assay and pulsed field gel electrophoresis. The morphologically distinguishable features of apoptosis such as chromatin condensation and cell shrinkage correlated with discrete stages of DNA fragmentation. It was found that >/=50 kbp fragmentation of DNA occurs already in cells of normal density whereas the subsequent DNA fragmentation onto fragments <50 kbp occurs in parallel with cell shrinkage and simultaneous increase in cell density.The observed stages of DNA fragmentation seem to be separated in time that could allow in case of abortive apoptosis formation of chromosomal aberrations.     

Semiparametric regression modeling with mixtures of Berkson and classical error, with application to fallout from the Nevada test site

We construct Bayesian methods for semiparametric modeling of a monotonic regression function when the predictors are measured with classical error. Berkson error, or a mixture of the two. Such methods require a distribution for the unobserved (latent) predictor, a distribution we also model semiparametrically. Such combinations of semiparametric methods for the dose response as well as the latent variable distribution have not been considered in the measurement error literature for any form of measurement error. In addition, our methods represent a new approach to those problems where the measurement error combines Berkson and classical components. While the methods are general, we develop them around a specific application, namely, the study of thyroid disease in relation to radiation fallout from the Nevada test site. We use this data to illustrate our methods, which suggest a point estimate (posterior mean) of relative risk at high doses nearly double that of previous analyses but that also suggest much greater uncertainty in the relative risk.     

Thyroid cancer risk in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident: Comparison with external exposures

Within the time period 1990–1993, childhood thyroid cancer incidence due to the Chernobyl accident increased dramatically in Belarus, especially with regard to the birth cohort January 1, 1971, to May 31, 1986. This rise subsequently slowed down, i.e. during the period 1994–1996. The respective data were analysed and compared with the results of an analysis on the time dependence of thyroid cancer incidence in a pooled cohort of persons who had been exposed during childhood to external radiation with high dose rates. Concerning the period of 5–10 years following exposure, the excess absolute cancer risk per unit thyroid dose in the latter (external) exposure group was found to exceed the one in the Belarus group by a factor of two. This difference, however, is not statistically significant. The age-adjusted average excess absolute risk per unit thyroid dose for the period of 5–50 years following external childhood exposure was found to be 8 female and 14 male cases per 10⁴ person-year · Gy, which is a factor about 2.5 times higher than for the non-adjusted risk in the pooled cohort, as reported by Ron et al. in 1995. Assessments of future excess thyroid cancer cases due to the Chernobyl accident were done on the basis of the time dependence of thyroid cancer risk following external exposure. The thyroid cancer incidence among the birth cohort considered in Belarus and for a period starting from the cessation of the available observation data (1 January 1997) and extending to 50 years after the Chernobyl accident has been estimated to be about 15,000 cases, with an uncertainty range of 5000–45,000 cases. According to our calculations, 80% of these cases exceed the baseline risk under enhanced thyroid surveillance. Received: 8 June 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 20 November 1999     

Radiation risks in perspective: radiation-induced cancer among cancer risks

The majority of the public in industrial countries believes that pollution and low doses of radiation are threats to good health. As a matter of fact, when these putative risks are compared to those originating from lifestyle, they appear very small. In particular, the risks associated with low doses of irradiation, even when they are assessed with the most pessimistic models, appear extremely small. Public anxiety is fuelled by the uncertainty regarding the magnitude of this risk and the use of the linear no threshold (LNT) hypothesis, which gives credence to the concept that even the smallest doses are harmful. There are a number of scientific and epidemiological data currently under debate that are not consistent with the LNT hypothesis. For example, no difference in the incidence of cancers or of birth defects has been observed between regions with low or high natural irradiation. This inconsistency between perceptions and data underlines the role of psychological factors studied since 1957 which should be placed in the perspective of the public’s present attitude toward risk and technology. Social amplification or attenuation of risk may occur in several ways. Fearful concern about radiation began in 1955, with the beginning of the Cold War, when the possibility of a nuclear holocaust appeared very real. Analysis of the data shows that these fears of technology could have a detrimental effect; they should therefore be investigated and understood. Received: 13 October 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 27 December 1999